A-L-E-K Posted August 31, 2014 Share Posted August 31, 2014 Latest SPC day 2 outlook has been expanded NE: the whole slight zone was shifted east and south, as expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted August 31, 2014 Share Posted August 31, 2014 the whole slight zone was shifted east and south, as expected Some of WI and IA was shaved out of the risk, but otherwise I don't see that much of a shift southward... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 31, 2014 Share Posted August 31, 2014 model agreement on a large well defined outflow cutting SE across central IL is a classic punt signal north of I80…a lock, no but it's the right call I agree in the sense that the greatest probs should be south of I-80...a case could probably be made for 30% wind probs in that area although forcing could be better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted August 31, 2014 Share Posted August 31, 2014 Not writing this one off yet here, but it's looking like a classic skip-over DVN setup. May have to head down to central IL tomorrow if things look decent down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted August 31, 2014 Share Posted August 31, 2014 I'm off tomorrow, but expecting to get called in to work to help out. Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted August 31, 2014 Author Share Posted August 31, 2014 I'm off tomorrow, but expecting to get called in to work to help out. Sent from my SM-G900V It would suck if you get called into work on Labor Day, but I like when you talk sexy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted August 31, 2014 Share Posted August 31, 2014 Does anyone have another site where you can get the CAPE values for the GEM? Meteocentre hasn't updated since the 06z RGEM run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted August 31, 2014 Share Posted August 31, 2014 It would suck if you get called into work on Labor Day, but I like when you talk sexy. Lol, we'll see how it works out. Pieces seem to be there for a decent damaging wind event, assuming the expected decaying morning convection doesn't muck things up too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 31, 2014 Share Posted August 31, 2014 I still could see a sup or two in northern IL tomorrow depending on morning cloud clover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 That QLCS back across IA/KS is beginning to haul ass... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 That QLCS back across IA/KS is beginning to haul ass... meh, looks pretty much on schedule LOT favoring I80 south as well http://www.crh.noaa.gov/wxstory.php?site=lot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 meh, looks pretty much on schedule LOT favoring I80 south as well http://www.crh.noaa.gov/wxstory.php?site=lot One forecast radar I just looked at (albeit, this forecast radar is pure crap) has it into IL/WI by Midnight ET. Either way, as the cold pool continues to develops and the better jet dynamics kick in, a faster timing wouldn't surprise me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 One forecast radar I just looked at (albeit, this forecast radar is pure crap) has it into IL/WI by Midnight ET. Either way, as the cold pool continues to develops and the better jet dynamics kick in, a faster timing wouldn't surprise me... i expect the remnant northern portion of complex to be moving along the IL/WI border near daybreak with the southern outflow lagging bit across central IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 LOT backing off INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA/WESTERNIOWA WILL LIKELY CONGEAL INTO A LARGE CLUSTER AND MOVE EAST ACROSSIOWA TONIGHT...ARRIVING IN NORTHWEST ILLINOIS TOWARD DAWN. MODELSSUGGEST THESE STORMS WILL WEAKEN OR COMPLETELY DISSIPATE AS THEYMOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS MONDAY MORNING...HOWEVER CONFIDENCEIN THAT SCENARIO IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH AS CONVECTION COULD GROWMORE ORGANIZED TONIGHT AND MAINTAIN ITSELF INTO THE MORNINGMONDAY. STORMS WILL EITHER RE-INTENSIFY OR RE-DEVELOP ALONGREMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTHEAST OFTHE TERMINALS WITH STRONG-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY EXTENDINGFROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN INDIANA BY LATEMONDAY AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA AT RFD WILL BE WITHWEAKENING STORM COMPLEX APPROACHING FROM WEST MONDAY MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 LOT backing off INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA/WESTERN IOWA WILL LIKELY CONGEAL INTO A LARGE CLUSTER AND MOVE EAST ACROSS IOWA TONIGHT...ARRIVING IN NORTHWEST ILLINOIS TOWARD DAWN. MODELS SUGGEST THESE STORMS WILL WEAKEN OR COMPLETELY DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS MONDAY MORNING...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THAT SCENARIO IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH AS CONVECTION COULD GROW MORE ORGANIZED TONIGHT AND MAINTAIN ITSELF INTO THE MORNING MONDAY. STORMS WILL EITHER RE-INTENSIFY OR RE-DEVELOP ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS WITH STRONG-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN INDIANA BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA AT RFD WILL BE WITH WEAKENING STORM COMPLEX APPROACHING FROM WEST MONDAY MORNING. Wasn't that Izzi's aviation forecast? BTW, NAM sped things up some. Brings an initial (severe) squall line through here around 18z-21z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Rain, please. Really, this garage cleaning thing has got to stop (been working on it since Friday afternoon) If it rains, then, no garage tomorrow.... So, yeah, Rain, enough to last all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Schwarz is saying "mostly dry" for tomorrow. Forecasting about .07" of rain for the area...... Guess I gotta do more garage tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Seeing reports of gusts near 60 with the line moving into eastern Iowa. The line is moving in sooner than the models predicted, so it's holding together pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Seeing reports of gusts near 60 with the line moving into eastern Iowa. The line is moving in sooner than the models predicted, so it's holding together pretty well. Looks like you're gonna get a nice dumping finally tonight. SPC will likely be making a major shift southeast with the risk for tomorrow. Looks like they are about 200 miles too far northwest with the risk area in the last few day 2 outlooks. Amazing how the large scale system setups usually skip over this area. The Plains really seems to act as sort of a barrier reef for the larger scale severe setups for this area. Looking pretty good for the LAF boys tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Looks like that line of storms is holding it's own. Thinking the morning hours will be damp across the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Storms are stratifying quickly as they move into Cedar Rapids. There was a bit of wind initially and now it's barely even raining. I just hope the moderate rain fills in and drops a quarter inch or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Looks like you're gonna get a nice dumping finally tonight. SPC will likely be making a major shift southeast with the risk for tomorrow. Looks like they are about 200 miles too far northwest with the risk area in the last few day 2 outlooks. Amazing how the large scale system setups usually skip over this area. The Plains really seems to act as sort of a barrier reef for the larger scale severe setups for this area. Looking pretty good for the LAF boys tomorrow. It's definitely a messy setup for sure... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Looks like the storms are hitting a brick wall at the Iowa/Wisconsin and Minnesota/Wisconsin borders. Probably is a good thing for our prospects tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Looks like the storms are hitting a brick wall at the Iowa/Wisconsin and Minnesota/Wisconsin borders. Probably is a good thing for our prospects tomorrow. Rough estimation using Radarscope's distance tool puts them moving ~11 miles east over the past half hour or so of radar scans, though the severe warning over Iowa City calls for 50MPH movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 New SPC update is out, didn't shift the Slight Risk southeast. Tablet not letting me copy & paste the images and discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 No major changes to the SPC day 1 outook. A hatched 15% area for hail and a 2%/5% area for tornadoes has been added in SW Missouri, but that's about it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Here is today's Day 1 Outlook from SPC SPC AC 010554 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1254 AM CDT MON SEP 01 2014 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM LOWER MI AND SERN WI THROUGH THE MIDWEST...MID MS VALLEY TO ERN KS AND FAR NERN OK... ...SUMMARY... ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS INDIANA...ILLINOIS...MISSOURI INTO EASTERN KANSAS AND FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...WHILE A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR EASTERN WYOMING INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA. ...LOWER MI/SERN WI TO MID MS VALLEY TO SERN KS/NERN OK... A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NEWD FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...REACHING ONTARIO AND WRN QUEBEC BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST 500-MB HEIGHT FALLS /60-90 M/ ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD THROUGH THE NRN EXTENT OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...30-60 METER FALLS SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE ERN WI AND LOWER MI PORTION OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. MEANWHILE...AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SPEED MAX ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON TO THE MIDWEST AND SRN GREAT LAKES LATER MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM WRN LAKE SUPERIOR SSWWD THROUGH CENTRAL IA INTO CENTRAL KS AT 12Z. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ADVANCE TO A POSITION FROM ERN UPPER MI THROUGH SERN IA INTO SERN KS AND NORTH CENTRAL OK TO THE TX PANHANDLE BY LATE AFTERNOON. FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...ENHANCED PRIMARILY BY ASCENT AHEAD OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY ALSO BE ONGOING AT DAYBREAK ACROSS ERN KS INTO CENTRAL/ SRN MO WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME. GUSTY WINDS AND ISOLATED HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THE EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY...THOUGH GREATER TSTM COVERAGE AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA LATER TODAY. STRONGEST BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS SERN KS/SWRN MO AND OK WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 90S. AS A RESULT...INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST ALONG THE TRAILING PORTIONS OF THE FRONT WHERE THE ERN EXTENT OF STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE-STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 2000-3000 J PER KG/. DESPITE WEAKER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SOME UNCERTAINTY IN DEGREE OF SURFACE HEATING...DUE IN PART TO EARLY DAY CONVECTIVE DEBRIS...MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP ENEWD FROM MO TO LOWER MI. NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR FROM SERN WI INTO LOWER MI AND ERN IA TO INDIANA FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT AND ANY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES ATTENDANT TO EARLY MORNING CONVECTION. A 50-60 KT SWLY MIDLEVEL JET ACCOMPANYING THE LEAD TROUGH WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING BULK SHEAR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. MEANWHILE...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BACK-BUILD SWWD THROUGH MO TO SERN KS DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON AS THE CAP WEAKENS. LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN BACKED TO SLY INTO SERN KS...NERN OK AND SWRN MO ENHANCING CONVERGENCE INTO THE COLD FRONT AND POTENTIAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLY MORNING STORMS. STRENGTHENING WLY MIDLEVEL WINDS ACROSS KS/MO BY LATE AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN STRONG BULK SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH THE STRONG INSTABILITY SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE AFOREMENTIONED ZONE OF BACKED LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR A TORNADO THREAT INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ...ERN WY/SWRN SD AND WRN/CENTRAL NEB... A FAST-MOVING MIDLEVEL IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ESEWD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES TO THIS DISCUSSION AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 40S...STEEP LAPSE RATES...WITH 500-MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -15 C ACCOMPANYING THE IMPULSE...WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 500-1000 J PER KG/ THIS AFTERNOON. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WITH LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. ..PETERS/DEAN.. 09/01/2014 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z CURRENT UTC TIME: 1214Z (7:14AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 solid overcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Ugh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Updated SPC day 1 outlook: SPC AC 011252DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKNWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0752 AM CDT MON SEP 01 2014VALID 011300Z - 021200Z...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHTFROM LOWER MI TO THE NE OK/SE KS BORDER REGION......SUMMARY...A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTEDLATER TODAY FROM PARTS OF ILLINOIS INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. A SOMEWHATLONGER-DURATION SEVERE STORM THREAT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTOTONIGHT FROM THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER REGION INTO SOUTHERNMISSOURI...WHERE A COUPLE TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.OTHERWISE...ISOLATED STORMS WITH STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSSTHE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON....SE KS/NE OK BORDER TO LOWER MI TODAY INTO TONIGHT...A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY THIS MORNING WILLMOVE NEWD OVER UPPER MI BY THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE AN UPSTREAM WAVEOVER ID/WY PROGRESSES EWD TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOONAND THE MID MS VALLEY BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...ANASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS IA/WI TODAY TO WRN LOWERMI AND NW IL BY THIS EVENING...WHILE THE SW EXTENT OF THE FRONT WILLBECOME QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER.OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS PROGRESSED WELL AHEAD OF THESURFACE COLD FRONT...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMDEVELOPMENT TODAY FROM NRN MO TO SE WI APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING ASA RESULT OF THE STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF THIS OUTFLOW...AS WELL ASEARLY DAY PASSAGE OF THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH. FARTHER E...ABROKEN BAND OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THISAFTERNOON FROM NRN INDIANA INTO LOWER MI. HERE...A FEW DAMAGINGGUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 F ANDDAYTIME HEATING CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG...IN ANENVIRONMENT WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT TO DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WITHTHE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH.THE MORE FOCUSED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREA WILL BE FARTHER S FROMTHE OK/KS BORDER INTO SRN MO...ALONG THE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARYFROM THE ONGOING STORMS IN MO/KS. CONTINUED MOISTURE INFLUX INTOTHE BOUNDARY FROM THE S...IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG DAYTIMEHEATING...WILL MAINTAIN MLCAPE OF 2500-3000 J/KG ALONG THE SRNFRINGE OF THE STRONGER WLYS...AND THE NRN FRINGE OF THE WARMERELEVATED MIXED LAYER/CAP. DESTABILIZATION IN THE WARM SECTOR ANDCONTINUED WAA/ASCENT OVER THE REMNANT OUTFLOW/EFFECTIVE FRONT WILLSUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM N CENTRAL/NE OK ANDSE KS INTO SRN MO THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE MODERATE-STRONGBUOYANCY AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-40 KT WILL SUPPORT A WSW-ENEORIENTED BAND OF STORMS WITH SOME EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OFPRODUCING LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND MOISTUREWILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME TORNADO RISK WITH STORMS ON THEIMMEDIATE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...AS SWD MOTION OF THE BOUNDARYENDS AND THE OUTFLOW AIR MASS MODIFIES BY THIS AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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