SACRUS Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 1961 is the warmest September on record...We got hit with a tropical wave and just missed getting hit with hurricane Esther that month... Unc do you have your monthly NYC breakdown for September? I was thinking 1983 or 1953 were the warmest, but I guess theyre in the top 5 or 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 CPC going with good probability of normal temperatures in the area September 6th - September 14th. Could have below normal temps in the area if the cooler air mass doesn't modify much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Happy Meteorological Autumn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Happy Meteorological Autumn Summer still has 22 days left. Will you be celebrating the start of meteorological Spring on March 1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Looking at the long range ensembles, I'm banking on six more weeks of Summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Looking at the long range ensembles, I'm banking on six more weeks of Summer That's not going to look good for October. I'm pretty sure October is supposed to be colder than average for a colder than average winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 That's not going to look good for October. I'm pretty sure October is supposed to be colder than average for a colder than average winter.Didn't work out that way last year as Oct had a +3 degree temp departure... in fact it was the last big positive departure that we've had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Didn't work out that way last year as Oct had a +3 degree temp departure... in fact it was the last big positive departure that we've had. That's because there was a Neutral ENSO at the time. El Nino winters are often colder when October has below average temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 73 here... warmest morning since the first week of July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 its like a sauna out there already at 8 am with sunshine the temps are going to race towards 90 - Linden is already 78 - leading the way - should be an interesting day with another shortwave approaching as the atmosphere destabalizes quickly http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.asus41.OKX.KOKX.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 its like a sauna out there already at 8 am with sunshine the temps are going to race towards 90 - Linden is already 78 - leading the way - should be an interesting day with another shortwave approaching as the atmosphere destabalizes quickly http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.asus41.OKX.KOKX.html More clouds than yesterday but should we reach 90, tomorrow will likely make 3 in a row and NYC/LGA first heatwave and the 2nd for those in NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 More clouds than yesterday but should we reach 90, tomorrow will likely make 3 in a row and NYC/LGA first heatwave and the 2nd for those in NJ.they're mostly low clouds and should burn off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Interesting GFS and ECM continue with higher heigths into the east through the long range. Looks like any cool will be transient and that cool would be around 9/8 before more warmth quickly returns as the ridge rebuilds east/trough west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Far less convective debris out there, than models where showing this morning. I think same places have a shot 90+ Today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 they're mostly low clouds and should burn off I meant the stuff back towards CPA which would take 3 - 5 hours to get here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Far less convective debris out there, than models where showing this morning. I think same places have a shot 90+ Today. If we do, Tuesday looks likely the hottest day and some of the warmer spots may get there Wed as well. Friday/Sat look to approach or exceed 90 as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Looks like after mid-sept temps go below average Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Looks like this could be the latest first heat wave in NYC since 1985. The temperature is a degree warmer than this time yesterday. 9-4-85...91 9-5-85...94 9-6-85...93 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Looks like after mid-sept temps go below average It'll be interesting to track but guidance seems to want to persist the troughing into the west with ridging into the east with some Western Atlantic ridging working in as well. Patter flip on/around 8/18 how long will it go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Looks like this could be the latest first heat wave in NYC since 1985. The temperature is a degree warmer than this time yesterday. 9-4-85...91 9-5-85...94 9-6-85...93 Followed a few weeks later by Gloria. Those 89s in LGA and NYC in late June and early July made it oh so close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 It'll be interesting to track but guidance seems to want to persist the troughing into the west with ridging into the east with some Western Atlantic ridging working in as well. Patter flip on/around 8/18 how long will it go? Yes beyond a week it's just a crap shoot on the weather it seems, but anyway by Sept 10 or so our average highs dip below 80. so it would take a bit for us to get into summer heat although I think southwest of us will still some after then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Yes beyond a week it's just a crap shoot on the weather it seems, but anyway by Sept 10 or so our average highs dip below 80. so it would take a bit for us to get into summer heat although I think southwest of us will still some after then. NYC average high is 80 already and drops to 79 on Thursday to 75 by the 16th and 70 by the 30th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 I'm not seeing any indication of a persistent trough / cooler than average pattern on the East Coast for the foreseeable future. The next 7 days continue to look like a torch, with many days of 90F potential. Thereafter, we should have more cool airmasses intruding from the NW, but the mean ridge likely remains near the East Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 NYC average high is 80 already and drops to 79 on Thursday to 75 by the 16th and 70 by the 30th. I guess I was looking at different areas around NYC. I just don't think we see any summer type after the Sept 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 I guess I was looking at different areas around NYC. I just don't think we see any summer type after the Sept 15 That's a pretty safe call most years. The summery intrusions tend to become much more sporadic after about the middle of September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 I guess I was looking at different areas around NYC. I just don't think we see any summer type after the Sept 15 I guess what you classify as summery would support that but weve seen mid/upper 80s into late sep and early oct in the warmer Septembers. I think the ridging continues, overall in the east but it wouldn't shick me if we have some deluge/flooding somewhere after mid month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Followed a few weeks later by Gloria. Those 89s in LGA and NYC in late June and early July made it oh so close. Remember it very well. September 1985 was also a warm month after a cool summer in NYC. 1985 Jun....-2.8 Jul.....-0.5 Aug....0.0 Sep..+2.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 10AM roundup: TEB: 81 NYC: 79 EWR: 83 LGA: 81 JFK: 77 ISP: 78 New Brunswick: 80 BLM: 73 TTN: 76 ACY: 78 PHL: 76 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Clouds.overcast skies in a line from about exit 9 of the turnpike south, north its sunny upto the GWB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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