NEXtreme Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 i think we have a shot at a +3 or better month Johnny wrong note. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 No sun here today... only made it to 74. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 I want my low-40s back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 Johnny wrong note. Touche. Unless we see some massive heat the last few days of the month then those departures will clearly be sunk and even +2 departures seem unlikely given where we stand now plus a couple of more negative departure days coming up before we warm up again. Anyone know today's departures by any chance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 Touche. Unless we see some massive heat the last few days of the month then those departures will clearly be sunk and even +2 departures seem unlikely given where we stand now plus a couple of more negative departure days coming up before we warm up again. Anyone know today's departures by any chance? +5..+1.2 for the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 Breeze has picked up as the night has progressed. Rather unusual. Very comfortable. As usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 Breeze has picked up as the night has progressed. Rather unusual. Very comfortable. As usual. that was the front coming through. - overnight models showing the Thursday system coming a bit further north -maybe some much needed rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 Models are bringing the coastal closer for midweek Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 starting wednesday night we go above normal for the rest of the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Imperator Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 Models are bringing the coastal closer for midweek No, Really? Youre so intimate with the models, maybe you can force the coastal even closer with your Xbox Controller. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 starting wednesday night we go above normal for the rest of the month rest of the month? Lol, Wed is 9/24, that's 6 days...big deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 A few of the 09z SREF members have a nice looking storm impacting the area mid week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 The ridge looks north and high in amplitude instead of your typical Bermuda high position so maybe a lot more onshore flow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 80 for the weekend..awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 80 for the weekend..awesome Yawn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 Departures through 9/21 NYC: +1.3 LGA: +0.7 EWR: +1.2 JFK: +1.4 Strong positives 1 - 12th Strong negatives: 13 - 20 21 - 30 : should be +1 to +2 overall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 The ridge looks north and high in amplitude instead of your typical Bermuda high position so maybe a lot more onshore flow? Agreed but should get a more W-SW flow this weekend into early next week. Nothing record but should see a warmer pattern once to Thu though the end of the month. Id expect most places to fininsh +1.5 to +20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 Despite the cool shot that is moving into the NY Metro area today, it appears that September will wind up with warm anomalies for the first time since June. Moreover, some of the long-term guidance has been persistently warm for October. Even as it's early, I created some maps from teleconnection patterns that were similar to the 9/10-20 period and had evolved in similar fashion to the forecast for the next 15 days. I then took the cases with the best match for September 2014 and looked at the October anomalies. The map was strikingly similar to the latest CFSv2 monthly forecast. The forecast warmth on the GFS ensembles through the extended range lends support to the idea that a milder nationwide pattern could evolve for the start of October. Of course, one should note that analogs are only representations. Some differences in detail are more than likely, but the broad insight that the month as a whole might feature widespread warm anomalies in the CONUS is consistent with some of the longer-range guidance. Finally, October's outcome is not necessarily a good indicator for the upcoming winter. One early positive sign, if it is sustained, would be the persistent PNA ridging that has been taking place. Many more details remain to be resolved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 Both Upton and Mount Holly were wrong about sky conditions again today - been mostly cloudy here for a couple of hours - they have been wrong in their forecast numerous times in the last few months - time to actually look out the window and take a closer look at current sat's http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.fpus51.KPHI.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 Despite the cool shot that is moving into the NY Metro area today, it appears that September will wind up with warm anomalies for the first time since June. Moreover, some of the long-term guidance has been persistently warm for October. Even as it's early, I created some maps from teleconnection patterns that were similar to the 9/10-20 period and had evolved in similar fashion to the forecast for the next 15 days. I then took the cases with the best match for September 2014 and looked at the October anomalies. The map was strikingly similar to the latest CFSv2 monthly forecast. The forecast warmth on the GFS ensembles through the extended range lends support to the idea that a milder nationwide pattern could evolve for the start of October. Of course, one should note that analogs are only representations. Some differences in detail are more than likely, but the broad insight that the month as a whole might feature widespread warm anomalies in the CONUS is consistent with some of the longer-range guidance. Finally, October's outcome is not necessarily a good indicator for the upcoming winter. One early positive sign, if it is sustained, would be the persistent PNA ridging that has been taking place. Many more details remain to be resolved. Hasn't it been discussed before that a warm October leads to a snowy DJF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 Currently low 70's here with a brisk wind and sunny skies. Sweatshirt weather. Would probably feel a lot warmer if not for the wind. Perfect for the end of September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 Hasn't it been discussed before that a warm October leads to a snowy DJF? There are contrary, cases, too, e.g., October 1998. From this far out, one has to be very cautious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 Im in sleeveless not sweatshirt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 Im in sleeveless not sweatshirt And I'm sure you're scaring small children. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 Currently low 70's here with a brisk wind and sunny skies. Sweatshirt weather. I didn't know you were from Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 Im exciting the ladies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 I didn't know you were from Florida. It's all about the wind I also lost a substantial amount of weight a few years ago and I've always been cold since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 Im exciting the ladies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 It's all about the wind I also lost a substantial amount of weight a few years ago and I've always been cold since. Yeah, it is rather blustery... I'll grant you that. Still breaking a sweat while working/exercising though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 Yeah, it is rather blustery... I'll grant you that. Still breaking a sweat while working/exercising though. Hard to believe its only about 4 degrees colder than it was yesterday at this time. The clouds, wind and low dewpoints are making it feel like low 60s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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