IsentropicLift Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Model fail for this morning with 0.47" here so far. If you go back to a few days ago the models were plenty wet. The NAM did especially bad with this one. Whenever you have a legitiamte surface low always take the over. Nice negativly tilted trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 If you go back to a few days ago the models were plenty wet. The NAM did especially bad with this one. Whenever you have a legitiamte surface low always take the over. Nice negativly tilted trough A few days yes but since Sunday the NAM and GFS both had a few hundredths at most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 A few days yes but since Sunday the NAM and GFS both had a few hundredths at most The models have had a habbit of being too dry in the short term recently. Especially the NAM. I wonder if they made any changes to the POS because it has not been consistently too wet all summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 blame convection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 blame convection Agreed, now that the wave lengths are becoming longer and we're going to have some baroclinicity to work with, model verification should improve. It's much easier to paint QPF when you have actual low pressure systems to focus on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 This would have been a great overperformer for the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 This would have been a great overperformer for the winter. It was a great overperformer for what it was. I don't know about anyone else but I desperatly needed the rain. I think this is only the second measurable rain in my backyard this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Agreed, now that the wave lengths are becoming longer and we're going to have some baroclinicity to work with, model verification should improve. It's much easier to paint QPF when you have actual low pressure systems to focus on. Bruiser of a coastal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Just checked... I picked up .16" this morning. Little more than an inconvenience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Rapid clearing, sun's out already. Amazing 5 day stretch upcoming and could be approaching 80 by Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 80 in mid-September, who would have thought? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 ^ terrible Anyway sun is coming out here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Wound up with 0.54" today and a high temp of just 65 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 Back to NJ from across the pond and the feel and smell of fall is in the air. 55 here and dropping - .44 in the bucket but still dry overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 .10" of rain here. I was hoping I wouldn't get anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 .14 here this morning, 2.14" Sept monthly total. William, nice make over indeed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 The name's Plissken!!! I mean Pammy! *smirks* Well I certainly ain't the Duke. Welcome again Pammy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 Sept. to finish with less than 1" in CPK? Currently .74" with almost nothing showing for remainder of month! I thought the analogs had a wet Sept. along EC. Only as far as Cape Hatteras for above normal precip. so far. Fewer than 10 Septs. since 1869 are under 1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 Sept. to finish with less than 1" in CPK? Currently .74" with almost nothing showing for remainder of month! I thought the analogs had a wet Sept. along EC. Only as far as Cape Hatteras for above normal precip. so far. Fewer than 10 Septs. since 1869 are under 1". Day 6 easily gets us over the mark . The Control is Strongest however the Ensembles and the operational show this as well . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 What a bore fest. The southern stream is becoming more active but the pattern is way to progressive. Bit of a mixed signal with the latest NAO ensemble guidance but they seem to be leaning towards a slightly positive NAO to begin October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 In other news, frost alert for next Wednesday morning north and west. The 12z GFS has those areas dipping down into the 30's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 What a bore fest. The southern stream is becoming more active but the pattern is way to progressive. Bit of a mixed signal with the latest NAO ensemble guidance but they seem to be leaning towards a slightly positive NAO to begin October. But its been an active year in the tropics right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 But its been an active year in the tropics right? What? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 The name's Plissken!!! I mean Pammy! *smirks* I thought he was dead *wink* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 What? A while back you said it hasn't been a quiet year for the tropics...do you still think this is the case? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 A while back you said it hasn't been a quiet year for the tropics...do you still think this is the case?When did I say that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 When did I say that? Curios as to why you think it's such a dud? We've already had a landfalling CAT 2 Hurricane in NC, a close fish with Bertha, and MX landfalling TS with Dolly and September is statistically the most active month. Sure, it may not be a sexy season in terms of intense storms and high end US threats but we've had plenty of seasons more boring than this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 When did I say that? Curios as to why you think it's such a dud? We've already had a landfalling CAT 2 Hurricane in NC, a close fish with Bertha, and MX landfalling TS with Dolly and September is statistically the most active month. Sure, it may not be a sexy season in terms of intense storms and high end US threats but we've had plenty of seasons more boring than this one. Everything I said was true. We've had five named storms so far, a landfalling Cat 2 and now a major. We've had plenty of less interesting seasons before, and we still have a good 8-10 weeks to go. Let's get that NAO to drop back down during October and take our chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 Latest GFS has NYC with just .01" over next 16 days!!!. Total for month would then be just 0.75"!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 We could possibly get a coastal late this coming weekend or early next week. The 12z GFS is well east but the 12z GGEM scrapes the coast and the 12z GEFS mean is coming in similar to the GGEM. The Euro had rain but it was more frontal. Just something to watch in this otherwise borefest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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