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September 2014


Rtd208

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Tomorrow is a scattered line of storms again, IMO.

Nothing widespread.

 

We've been in this very dry pattern for months.

The dry pattern started around mid July.... was about 7" above normal precip at that point here so it was a wet first 7 or so months... even with the recent dryness, still about 3" above normal to date (at this station).

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I was actually wondering the same thing, would any of the experts like to chime in?

Also there should be more particulate material in the atmosphere for  the water vapor to coalesce on.   This is how that April 6, 1982---10" snowstorm happened here, along with record low temps.    I think it was the El Chichon Volcanoe that time.

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More of the same easterly flow pattern since the beginning of August.

 

 

Here's the days at LGA since 8-1:

 

8-1...SSE

8-2...ENE

8-3...ENE

8-4...SSE

8-10.SE

8-11.SE

8-12.SE

8-13.SE

8-19.ENE

8-20.SE

8-22.SE

8-23.ENE

8-24.ENE

8-25.ENE

8-26.SSE

8-27.SSE

8-29.SE

8-30.SE

9-5..SSE

9-7..NE

9-8..E

9-9..NE

9-10.NE

9-12.ENE

9-13.E

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More of the same easterly flow pattern since the beginning of August.

 

 

Here's the days at LGA since 8-1:

 

8-1...SSE

8-2...ENE

8-3...ENE

8-4...SSE

8-10.SE

8-11.SE

8-12.SE

8-13.SE

8-19.ENE

8-20.SE

8-22.SE

8-23.ENE

8-24.ENE

8-25.ENE

8-26.SSE

8-27.SSE

8-29.SE

8-30.SE

9-5..SSE

9-7..NE

9-8..E

9-9..NE

9-10.NE

9-12.ENE

9-13.E

 

I notice that water temperatures offshore are around 2C above normal, despite the average to slightly below average summer temperatures. This might be a result of higher pressures off shore, and persistent on shore flow, which I believe limits upwelling. Any other ideas?

 

  wksst.20140903.gif

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I notice that water temperatures offshore are around 2C above normal, despite the average to slightly below average summer temperatures. This might be a result of higher pressures off shore, and persistent on shore flow, which I believe limits upwelling. Any other ideas?

 

  

 

Yeah, you are right. The very strong block to our Northeast in August created a warmer pattern there which warmed the

SST's. The persistent high pressure to our Northeast has kept the easterly flow going.

 

 

 

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Yeah, you are right. The very strong block to our Northeast in August created a warmer pattern there which warmed the

SST's. The persistent high pressure to our Northeast has kept the easterly flow going.

 

attachicon.gif500.png

 

attachicon.gifSP.png

 

attachicon.gifsst.png

Do North Atlantic SSTs significantly effect North Atlantic blocking in the winter?

 

I could see warm offshore temperatures on one hand leading to increased blocking, suppressing the storm track south, but I could also see it also moving the baroclinic zone westward, resulting in a coast-hugger type storm track.

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Do North Atlantic SSTs significantly effect North Atlantic blocking in the winter?

I could see warm offshore temperatures on one hand leading to increased blocking, suppressing the storm track south, but I could also see it also moving the baroclinic zone westward, resulting in a coast-hugger type storm track.

Warm waters in the northwest Atlantic tend to favor a -NAO.

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Do North Atlantic SSTs significantly effect North Atlantic blocking in the winter?

 

I could see warm offshore temperatures on one hand leading to increased blocking, suppressing the storm track south, but I could also see it also moving the baroclinic zone westward, resulting in a coast-hugger type storm track.

I'd take my chances with that versus some of the dry/cold weather we had 2nd half of Feb and all of March

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Tomorrow morning looks to be the first morning low below 60 degrees across much of the five boroughs since June. Central park recorded a 59 degree low on June 15th. It appears that lows will remain below 60 over the next week. Next Friday morning looks especially chilly on the Euro (early first 40s in NYC?).

 

My feeling is that the temps shown on the hi-res nam below are a bit too low. My guesses for tonight are:

 

KNYC: 55

KLGA: 58

KEWR: 55

KJFK: 57

 

temp23.gif

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Wow its raining... been dry lately... 0.14" here so far and a nice cool high temp of 67 degrees.

 

 

Yeah 69F high here, 0.11" so far. Figured we'd finish with under a quarter inch.

 

Can't complain about dryness here, had over 15.5" for the meteorological summer and 1.07" so far this month via T-storms.

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After the coming 5-7 days of cooler than normal temperatures, we should resume a warmer than normal pattern for the Mid-west/East for the September 21st-30th period as the large scale trough amplifies into the Gulf of Alaska, flipping the EPO moderately positive at least temporarily. This current cool period is timed well, immediately following the EPO decline. Mid level ridge should expand in the E CONUS yielding possibly some low-mid 80s again for the final 1/3 of the month, and therefore sealing the deal on a torch September.

 

eps_epo_bias.png

 

 

 

2lktd92.png

 

 

2014091300_054@007_E1_north@america_I_NA

 

 

In other news, the CFS V2 continues to furnace the CONUS for October. This seems to be in consensus with the Japanese based models as well as the ECMWF weeklies out through the first half of October.

 

CFSv2.NaT2m.20140913.201410.gif

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