Juliancolton Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 74/70... getting a bit steamy ahead of the fropa. The front doesn't look very sharp on sfc analyses, and winds are calm, so it might be hard to tell exactly when the passage occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 The JMA winter forecast is out and it's going with another big -EPO winter. I would like to see how the actual October pattern plays out first. Last October featured the strong -EPO which correctly forecast the winter -EPO. Y201409.D0300.png The JAMSTEC also looks great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 Nice NEG EPO signal here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 The JAMSTEC also looks great I like how the United States is basically the only place on the entire planet that has any appreciable below normal temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 I like how the United States is basically the only place on the entire planet that has any appreciable below normal temps. I will take it . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 the CFS also had a -epo signal last winter and it shows this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 What were the highs in the end today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 What were the highs in the end today? Mostly 83-85 after the sun finally came out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Mostly 83-85 after the sun finally came out A few days ago I actually thought a stray 90F was possible in the warmest spots but there was a ton of cloud cover around though it certainly felt like summer. I also believe that was very likely our last shot because it's all downhill from here and mostly 70s and 50s for lows. Unless we get a freak heat burst late this month or early October then 90s are completely over until mid next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 A few days ago I actually thought a stray 90F was possible in the warmest spots but there was a ton of cloud cover around though it certainly felt like summer. I also believe that was very likely our last shot because it's all downhill from here and mostly 70s and 50s for lows. Unless we get a freak heat burst late this month or early October then 90s are completely over until mid next year. 90s yes but I think we'll see 80s a couple more times later in the month especially if the GFS is right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC Weather Lover Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 90s yes but I think we'll see 80s a couple more times later in the month especially if the GFS is right I agree, we'll have to deal with the same pattern that we've been having , a few days in the 70s, a brief warm up in the 80s for a day or two, then a cold front with cooler air. Ditto this for a few more times the rest of the month. I don't think we'll see 60s as highs (at least not "permanently") until the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 61 over here in Brooklyn, NY. I am wearing sweatpants today. Love this chilly weather =) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Well are departures are generally above +4 for most with some +5 or higher so there's a lot of work to do to get those down to a more reasonable range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 The 00z GGEM is at it again If you could draw up a model run where a hurricane literally impacted the coast from LA to NY, there you go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Do we think we will get some rain tomorrow/tomorrow evening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Do we think we will get some rain tomorrow/tomorrow evening? I'll be shocked if we see .10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Tomorrow is the big ru-psu football game...whats the story...do we have a shot at busting with rain...hopefully so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Not out on free maps yet but the 12z NAM is coming in wet for tommorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Not going to be the best day for outdoor activites Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Not out on free maps yet but the 12z NAM is coming in wet for tommorrow. is the total QPF map out yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 is the total QPF map out yet? We're only talking ~0.50" for most locations but it's a steady rain. This is almost like a late developing miller B. Saturday night might be salvaged, at least west of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Heavy rain on 9/23-25 followed by temps. in the 40's on 9/26? Looks like after tomorrow, it will be quiet precip. wise till then. Comments? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Heavy rain on 9/23-25 followed by temps. in the 40's on 9/26? Looks like after tomorrow, it will be quiet precip. wise till then. Comments? You must be talking about this beauty. It has the same chance of verifying as the Yankees making the playoffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 You must be talking about this beauty. It has the same chance of verifying as the Yankees making the playoffs. Yeah that's my baby. Has shown in some form for 2-3 days. Earlier looked like a 2-lobed low but now shows as consolidated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 The 06z GFS is an example of what can happen when you get later in the season and the northern stream jet starts dipping south. Big phase between the TC in the Gulf and the northern jet and bam. What an epic storm that would be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Yeah that's my baby. Has shown in some form for 2-3 days. Earlier looked like a 2-lobed low but now shows as consolidated. It's fun to dream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Gfs is coming in a tad wetter but still under .25" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Tomorrow is a scattered line of storms again, IMO. Nothing widespread. We've been in this very dry pattern for months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Tomorrow is a scattered line of storms again, IMO. Nothing widespread. We've been in this very dry pattern for months. I'll take the over given the surface low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 is there a fire in morris county? there's a little blip on radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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