IsentropicLift Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 The ridge has been once again muted and shunted SW on the 12z GFS keeping the big heat confined to our southwest. The general theme all summer has been for east coast troughing and I see no reason to bet against it winning out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 The ridge has been once again muted and shunted SW on the 12z GFS keeping the big heat confined to our southwest. The general theme all summer has been for east coast troughing and I see no reason to bet against it winning out. What days are you referring to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 What days are you referring to? Towards the end of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 Yup...both of those were awesome. Also during the mega band across LI during the blizzard in Dec 2009. I'm sure north shore folks will say this about Feb 2013, Hudson Valley folks during one of the Feb 2010 storms (I always mix up the 2..I'm not counting the virga fest early in the month) and NENJ will say this about the boxing day blizzard. Feb 25-26 aka The Snowicane.. 28-36" widespread in Orange County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 Anyone have those fancy weatherbell maps for the Euro to compare the 12z run to the one that was posted earlier in this thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 Euro weeklies have normal or above normal temperatures almost every day through September 28th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 Euro weeklies have normal or above normal temperatures almost every day through September 28th. But GFS OP shows a sharp break around 9/10-11. Single digit 850's and wet. Normal 850's will be 12-13C at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 30, 2014 Share Posted August 30, 2014 Yup...both of those were awesome. Also during the mega band across LI during the blizzard in Dec 2009. I'm sure north shore folks will say this about Feb 2013, Hudson Valley folks during one of the Feb 2010 storms (I always mix up the 2..I'm not counting the virga fest early in the month) and NENJ will say this about the boxing day blizzard. I got 12 inches from December 2009. Feb 2010 featured 40 inches of snow here for the month. Awesome month. Feb 25-26 aka The Snowicane.. 28-36" widespread in Orange County. 18 inches here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted August 30, 2014 Share Posted August 30, 2014 Tuesday looks potentially 90-95 for inland areas. 0z Euro ENS shows 850mb temps 18C+ with S-SW flow up to Central NY and Central New England. The Euro op has 850mb 20C+ on Tuesday night. Convection with the cold front is delayed until mostly Tuesday evening. 0z GFS MEX also shows lower 90s for much of NJ: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getmex.pl?sta=K12N&sta=KACY&sta=KBLM&sta=KCDW&sta=KWRI&sta=KMIV&sta=KMMU&sta=KVAY&sta=KEWR&sta=KSMQ&sta=KFWN&sta=KTEB&sta=KTTN&sta=KWWD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted August 30, 2014 Share Posted August 30, 2014 Ill be on the water most of tuesday fishing so i will most likely not be feeling any oppressive heat you inland folks will be feeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 30, 2014 Share Posted August 30, 2014 Feb 25-26 aka The Snowicane.. 28-36" widespread in Orange County. Always get the one on or around the 10th and the one on the 26th mixed up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 30, 2014 Share Posted August 30, 2014 Gfs blasts us with 2" of rain from tomorrow afternoon through Monday evening. Euro basically one tenth of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxwell03 Posted August 30, 2014 Share Posted August 30, 2014 Gfs blasts us with 2" of rain from tomorrow afternoon through Monday evening. Euro basically one tenth of that. Gonna have to root for the Euro solution. Apparently my dorm floods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 31, 2014 Share Posted August 31, 2014 Quite the heatwave on the long-range 18z GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted August 31, 2014 Share Posted August 31, 2014 Both the Euro weeklies and the CFSV2 see the warmth this far out . Would watch the Tropics around this time frame if something were to track underneath that ridge from FLA through the SE coast . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted August 31, 2014 Share Posted August 31, 2014 The 0z Euro ENS has another heat surge ahead of stronger cold front at the end of this week. Could see some severe wx potential again by the weekend. Behind that front temperatures are closer to average going into second week of September for the Northeastern US. Only seeing out day 10 here. Btw, this Tuesday still looks hot and humid, with more widespread 90F+ potential, away from the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 31, 2014 Share Posted August 31, 2014 Looking pretty good that NYC-LGA-JFK wont see any official heat waves in 2014. NYC didn't see any heat waves in 2004 which was also the last time that it dipped below 5 degrees. Jan 2004 minimum.....1 Jan 2014 minimum.....4 No heat waves either summer. Not great for those who enjoy heat/summer extremes, but still a very nice summer with 85%great weekend weather. Not too many rainy days. The timing of Arthur was terrible with the 4th of July but lots of great weather overall. Perhaps we'll have the same progression as 2004 or 2009 and subsequent seasons to end those years and into 2006/2010. Either way Sep looks warm and a little Indian summer on the maps continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 31, 2014 Share Posted August 31, 2014 81, mostly sunny and torching. Let the heat period begin. DP at 75. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 31, 2014 Share Posted August 31, 2014 Most of today looks nice to me for the city/coast, and a much better day than yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted August 31, 2014 Share Posted August 31, 2014 it was far less humid yesterday than today and that makes all the difference in having a comfortable summer day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 31, 2014 Share Posted August 31, 2014 Nobody thinks all this super heat in September and a massive eastern ridge will lock in for several months heading into the winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 31, 2014 Share Posted August 31, 2014 Nobody thinks all this super heat in September and a massive eastern ridge will lock in for several months heading into the winter? This really isn't such super heat for September compared to big September heat of the past. But September temperatures don't have much correlation to the winter patterns here anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 31, 2014 Share Posted August 31, 2014 warm starts to September aren't so bad if the second half is colder...I would worry a little if the end of September was warm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 31, 2014 Share Posted August 31, 2014 87.7F hot and sunny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 31, 2014 Share Posted August 31, 2014 Real correlations to winter begin in October. September's pattern has very little value as far as foreshadowing the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 31, 2014 Share Posted August 31, 2014 This really isn't such super heat for September compared to big September heat of the past. But September temperatures don't have much correlation to the winter patterns here anyway. I know October typically tells the story. With such high moisture values, it wouldn't shock me if local spots pick up several inches in a rapid period of time once again just like on LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted August 31, 2014 Share Posted August 31, 2014 Newark saw 93 today with 850mb temps 16C-17C with SW winds. On Tuesday, models have 18C+ 850mb temps with SW winds. Newark could see 95: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 31, 2014 Share Posted August 31, 2014 the park bagged a 90 today. tuesday looks like a lock... tomorrow depends on convective timing. latest first heat wave in decades? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted August 31, 2014 Share Posted August 31, 2014 CPC going with good probability of normal temperatures in the area September 6th - September 14th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 the park bagged a 90 today. tuesday looks like a lock... tomorrow depends on convective timing. latest first heat wave in decades? when I was 21 I drove a cab in Manhattan during August and September 1970...it was hot many of those days but September 22-26 the highs were 94/93/89/90/91 if I'm remembering right...It was brutal especially without ac... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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