winterwarlock Posted September 7, 2014 Share Posted September 7, 2014 Whoever said mid 90s mid month. No one...but it will be well above normal for highs thurs and fri...and near normal before that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Imperator Posted September 7, 2014 Share Posted September 7, 2014 Whatever man, it isn't a non-event for everyone. Here is Mount Holly's disco No one said it wasn't going to rain or there wasn't going to be a coastal low. But when you have a clown like Bastardi jump in the past 5 days from hyping the UKMET to the GGEM to the NAM (but notably not his favorite EURO) so he can continue his Twitter storyline instead of facing reality, one then wonders why people lose respect for weather people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted September 7, 2014 Share Posted September 7, 2014 No one said it wasn't going to rain or there wasn't going to be a coastal low. But when you have a clown like Bastardi jump in the past 5 days from hyping the UKMET to the GGEM to the NAM (but notably not his favorite EURO) so he can continue his Twitter storyline instead of facing reality, one then wonders why people lose respect for weather people.If he's a clown why are you reading his tweets or forecasts ? I usually don't follow people I think are " clowns " Makes sense ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 7, 2014 Share Posted September 7, 2014 So much for the extreme cool shot as this week will run above normal when all is said and done...yes its cooler after that but really not far from normal levels which are dropping This week will likely be near normal and it's very likely next week will be below normal. The only really warm day this week is Thursday and it's not even that warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted September 7, 2014 Share Posted September 7, 2014 The CFS says the highest temps for Central Park for the rest of the month is 81F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 7, 2014 Share Posted September 7, 2014 the fropa next weekend keeps getting slowed on each new euro run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted September 7, 2014 Share Posted September 7, 2014 Mt holly says thurs and fri well above normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted September 7, 2014 Share Posted September 7, 2014 The cool shot will be highly moderated and only last from about the 14th-18th before warmer than normal air begins to rebuild once again. WAR should retrograde back westward w/ the mean trough shifting into the U-MW for late September. Overall, the next few weeks should not be predominately cool in the East. I anticipate most days to be near average or warmer than normal, with the late September regime probably continuing into October (at least early). Of course, some may disagree with the aforementioned assertions, but I believe the analogs and near term drivers to be highly supportive of a normal-warmer than normal regime for the better part of the next 3-4 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted September 7, 2014 Share Posted September 7, 2014 +9.1 on temps here so far this month. Going to need much more than 3-5 days of cooler than normal temps to knock us back down to 0. Interestingly enough, my mean temp of 75.5 for September 1-7th is higher than my max mean temp for July of 74.3. Yes, if we break it down by weeks, there would be higher absolute temperatures. However, as far as temperature departures, the first week of September was the most anomalous week of the season for warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 7, 2014 Share Posted September 7, 2014 Yesterday was probably the last 90 degree day in NYC for the rest of 2014. The +8.2 at Central Park through yesterday should start dropping as this week probably finishes closer to normal. So the positive departure for this month will mostly be a result of the first week. 91 should be the high for this September coming in behind the 96 of last September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 7, 2014 Share Posted September 7, 2014 The CFS says the highest temps for Central Park for the rest of the month is 81F. First chance to challenge this will be Thu/Fri. Depending on cloud cover and if it stays dry. Beyond there some longer range hints at more ridging into the 17th or so but its late in the season by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 7, 2014 Share Posted September 7, 2014 Yesterday was probably the last 90 degree day in NYC for the rest of 2014. The +8.2 at Central Park through yesterday should start dropping as this week probably finishes closer to normal. So the positive departure for this month will mostly be a result of the first week. 91 should be the high for this September coming in behind the 96 of last September. Agree, although another surge into the mid/upper 80s cant be ruled out. The first week (+8 to +10) will contribute significantly to the likely monthly positives but there should be continued at or above normal the next 5 days (through the 9/12). Today will be a +2 to +4 for most sites Mon - Wed looks 0 to +3 before +4 to +6 by Thu/Fri. All of the stronger positives largely contingent on any rain/cloud cover. We should see the first negatives next weekend (9/13 - 9/16). Beyond there is a bit uncertain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 8, 2014 Share Posted September 8, 2014 Agree, although another surge into the mid/upper 80s cant be ruled out. The first week (+8 to +10) will contribute significantly to the likely monthly positives but there should be continued at or above normal the next 5 days (through the 9/12). Today will be a +2 to +4 for most sites Mon - Wed looks 0 to +3 before +4 to +6 by Thu/Fri. All of the stronger positives largely contingent on any rain/cloud cover. We should see the first negatives next weekend (9/13 - 9/16). Beyond there is a bit uncertain. Yeah, the first 7 days of September were +7.4( NYC) and Sunday was only +2 after the cold front passed. We lost the source of the warm up from 8/25-9/6 which was the big -PNA drop. So far there is no sign in the modeling that will be coming back anytime soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted September 8, 2014 Share Posted September 8, 2014 WPC is predicting wet weather here for a good portion of the week through the weekend with the heaviest amounts Thursday through next weekend http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1410177753 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 8, 2014 Share Posted September 8, 2014 The 06z GFS shifted pretty far NW with the system for tommorrow. If more guidance comes on board it might warrant its own thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted September 8, 2014 Share Posted September 8, 2014 Thursday could be in mid to upper 80s, if the warm front pushes through early. Euro is still slower with the cold front Friday and Saturday, with more showers. Then below normal temps to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 8, 2014 Share Posted September 8, 2014 Looks like wagons north today on the latest guidance. 09z SREF mean is well north of 03z. VS 03z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted September 8, 2014 Share Posted September 8, 2014 Thursday could be in mid to upper 80s, if the warm front pushes through early. Euro is still slower with the cold front Friday and Saturday, with more showers. Then below normal temps to follow. Agree - Thursday's definitely a sneaky warm day with 85+ potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 8, 2014 Share Posted September 8, 2014 The 12z NAM has shifted well NW as well with the coastal, but it's only ~0.25"+ for most locations. Still, those areas were dry on the 06z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 8, 2014 Share Posted September 8, 2014 Another day advertised as mostly sunny as recent as last night/this morning but as you can see clouds building in from the south. Highs will likely be below forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 8, 2014 Share Posted September 8, 2014 Another day advertised as mostly sunny as recent as last night/this morning but as you can see clouds building in from the south. Highs will likely be below forecast The weather forecast I heard this morning called for increasing clouds this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 8, 2014 Share Posted September 8, 2014 Another day advertised as mostly sunny as recent as last night/this morning but as you can see clouds building in from the south. Highs will likely be below forecast that might be a function of the system coming more north and west than earlier predictied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 8, 2014 Share Posted September 8, 2014 The weather forecast I heard this morning called for increasing clouds this afternoon. Still nice out for a day of golf. Enjoy. About 75 days till Thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted September 8, 2014 Share Posted September 8, 2014 My forecast said mostly sunny as late as 7AM this morning. I actually the prefer the clouds so I'm happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 8, 2014 Share Posted September 8, 2014 Still nice out for a day of golf. Enjoy. About 75 days till Thanksgiving.Stuck in the office today, enjoy your round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 8, 2014 Share Posted September 8, 2014 My forecast said mostly sunny as late as 7AM this morning. I actually the prefer the clouds so I'm happy. My forecast says mostly sunny at the 9:50 update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 8, 2014 Share Posted September 8, 2014 Cloud deck starting to make it up here as well, although we're still mostly sunny right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 8, 2014 Share Posted September 8, 2014 The 12z Euro out to 42hr really drenches Southern New Jersey with not much rain getting further north than Monmouth CO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 8, 2014 Share Posted September 8, 2014 The 12z Euro out to 42hr really drenches Southern New Jersey with not much rain getting further north than Monmouth CO. About 75 miles further north than the 00z run. Dry air is still winning out up here, especially north of Philly. I've been keeping a close eye on the HRRR which has been consistently showing the rain hitting a brick wall around CNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 8, 2014 Share Posted September 8, 2014 The 12z Euro out to 42hr really drenches Southern New Jersey with not much rain getting further north than Monmouth CO. Reminiscent of our March 'snowstorms' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.