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September 2014


Rtd208

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Clouds in the way again today - south jersey looks ok for 90s but from about CNJ north its mostly cloudy and likely to stay that way at least the next coupe of hours before the main front comes through. 

 

 

 

Mostly sunny and 82/75 here right now. Low 90s should occur for most outside of LI I think. One of the hottest days of the year.

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Most of the metro should be clearing out by noon and the temps will approach 90 fairly rapidly also individual storms should start popping up by mid - late afternoon similar to yesterday so keep an eye to the sky if outdoors in a park etc etc and keep the alerts feature on your Iphone activated.for severe warnings...............

 

http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/satellite/1km/index.php?type=LongIsland-vis-12

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On phone now.But saw 12z okx sounding from SPC was very unstable already (high Cape and LI) with a low-level inversion keeping low clouds in place. 0-6km bulk shear and mid-level lapse rates are weak though. Expect pulse severe t'storms this afternoon and evening.

I agree. Places on LI might get shafted once again because of the timing of the front.

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Still mostly cloudy into NE-NJ/NYC but sun should break out there soon.  But between morning clouds and showers and leading edge of front a few hours away, 90s may be out of reach . You can see in SNJ where its been mostly sunny, temps are 3 -5 higher already,

 

vis_nj_anim.gif

 

11AM Roundup

 

TEB: 81

NYC: 82

EWR: 81

LGA:  82

JFK:  82

ISP:  81

New Brunswick: 83

BLM:  85

TTN:  83

ACY: 86

PHL: 84

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Most of the metro should be clearing out by noon and the temps will approach 90 fairly rapidly also individual storms should start popping up by mid - late afternoon similar to yesterday so keep an eye to the sky if outdoors in a park etc etc and keep the alerts feature on your Iphone activated.for severe warnings...............

 

http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/satellite/1km/index.php?type=LongIsland-vis-12

as expected temps are racing towards 90 by next hour or 2  many stations will be at 90 or above - then the radars should start popping up storms about 3

 

http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.asus41.OKX.KOKX.html 

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as expected temps are racing towards 90 by next hour or 2  many stations will be at 90 or above - then the radars should start popping up storms about 3

 

http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.asus41.OKX.KOKX.html 

Right.  Theoretical high and convective temp. are both near 90 this PM, so airmass type cells could arise quickly.

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I agree. Places on LI might get shafted once again because of the timing of the front.

Timing or not LI gets shafted 90% of the time anyway :lol:. I do however expect a little rain later on today though, no thunderstorms but atleast a brief downpour with the front. West of NYC will have ALOT better shot for severe storms today

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Mesoscale Discussion 1687

< Previous MD

MD 1687 graphic

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1687

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1131 AM CDT SAT SEP 06 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NEW ENGLAND INTO ERN PA/NRN NJ

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 061631Z - 061800Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...BROKEN BANDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL

DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND TRACK E/NE ACROSS

ERN PA/NRN NJ INTO NEW ENGLAND. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN

THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE

NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 80S EARLY THIS

AFTERNOON IN BROKEN CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF THE SFC COLD

FRONT...RESULTING IN MODERATE DESTABILIZATION /MLCAPE APPROACHING

2000 J/KG/ OF THE VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /LOW 70S DEWPOINTS/.

AREAS OF AGITATED CUMULUS WERE EVIDENT ON LATEST VIS SATELLITE

IMAGERY FROM CENTRAL PA NEWD INTO NEW ENGLAND IN THE VICINITY WEAK

SFC CONFLUENCE ZONES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE

NEXT HOUR OR SO IN THE VICINITY OF THIS MODEST SFC CONVERGENCE AHEAD

OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT FROM ERN PA INTO S NY/N NJ. EFFECTIVE SHEAR

AROUND 30-40 KT WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR SOME ORGANIZED STORM

CLUSTERS/LINE SEGMENTS. WHILE MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN

POOR...STRONG SFC HEATING HAS RESULTED IN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE

RATES...AND COMBINED WITH PW VALUES AOA 1.75 INCHES...STRONG

/LOCALLY DAMAGING/ WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH BROKEN BANDS OF

CONVECTION. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP FURTHER N/NE INTO NEW

ENGLAND ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

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