Weathergun Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 Could be an isolated t-storm late tonight or early tomorrow with a weak warm front moving through. Otherwise, scattered thunderstorms look develop or run out ahead of better shear and forcing tomorrow afternoon and early evening. The 12z NAM and GFS showing effective shear only 20-25kts over NYC area, during that time frame. So t-storms will likely pulse up and down. Though I wouldn't not be to see some of us screwed by stronger t-storms over Upstate NY/New England with better upper-level support that direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 Yes, it's straw grasping to whip out the NAVGEM, but hey, gets steady precip in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Imperator Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 Yes, it's straw grasping to whip out the NAVGEM, but hey, gets steady precip in here. It's amazing how people will grasp straws and (bad) models in a slow season. Bastardi barfs a hype tweet about this and all the weenies go digging through model land. (General Statement) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 Fog and clouds burning off should give way to sun by noon, likely not enough for 90s today. We'll se how suny we can remain tomorrow And tomorrow could possibly be the last time we see 90s until April-June of next year and certainly at a widespread level. Given the coming cool down for the next couple weeks, it's highly unlikely any late month warm up will be enough to get temps up to 90 as that would be highly anomalous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 Today or tomorrow may very be the last day we see even 80's in northern pa and upstate ny until may Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 87/76, hot and humid. Feeling as summery as ever right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 Well the 12z ECMWF has the system for next Tuesday but keeps it generally over land and weak, sitting right over OBX at 102 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 Well the 12z ECMWF has the system for next Tuesday but keeps it generally over land and weak, sitting right over OBX at 102 hours. Tough to find a middle of the road scenario, it should be interesting to track regardless and a change of the predominant weather conditions as of late. This is the most bullish run yet from the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 Tough to find a middle of the road scenario, it should be interesting to track regardless and a change of the predominant weather conditions as of late. This is the most bullish run yet from the Euro. The problem is that we need this to get over the Gulf Stream in order to blow up. Otherwise we get a weak wave riding the front. If this gets past OBX offshore it's going to be gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 The problem is that we need this to get over the Gulf Stream in order to blow up. Otherwise we get a weak wave riding the front. If this gets past OBX offshore it's going to be gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 The 12z ECMWF ensemble mean continues to show rain chances with the coastal storm early next week but keeps the energy weak just like the operational. Meanwhile several 15z SREF members still blow this up over the gulf stream and bring it close enough affect Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 Thunderstorms now popping along sea-breeze boundary just west and south of NYC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 Got a couple short downpours today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 Showers nearby but have not had any measurable rain here in 13 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 Showers nearby but have not had any measurable rain here in 13 days. Decent cell over Middlesex heading towards SI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 That cell that is moving into Staten Island just past overhead here at raritan center in Edison. Very loud thunder and a heavy downpour associated with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 The 18z GFS just took a step towards the more organized guidance for next weeks coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 Decent cell over Middlesex heading towards SIWouldn't surprise if it doesn't make it here to the mid west shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 Wouldn't surprise if it doesn't make it here to the mid west shore. Yeah it totally fell apart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyg Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 Just had a sun downpour here in northern Union county. It rained hard for about 2 minutes. I went out on the deck, looked up, and there was a small clump of clouds to my south and blue sky all around. Pretty neat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 The 18z GFS just took a step towards the more organized guidance for next weeks coastal. I hear ya buddy, decent potential with this one, will catch many people off-guard. Here are the 18 GFS ensembles, tropical downpours seem like a sure bet at this point with some lifting of heavy PWATs along the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 Todays highs - clouds in the way of more widespread 90s or higher, Places with bigger breaks of sun surges into the low 90s well into New England. We'll see how much sun we get tomorrow as it could be off to the races temp-wise TEB: 91 New Brunswick: 91 TTN: 89 PHL:89 EWR: 87 NYC: 87 ACY: 86 LGA: 85 JFK: 85 ISP: 82 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 6z Nam much more organized with the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 6z Nam much more organized with the system. 6Z GFS very dry the next 16 days FWIW - have to side with the dry pattern that has been in place over the region for quite some time continuing IMO for now ............also today will probably be the last time we see 90 degrees over the region untill next spring/summer http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KEWR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 Very cloudy and humid here, has the feel of a long lasting deluge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 Very cloudy and humid here, has the feel of a long lasting deluge. Totally agree it is soupy out there today. Feels like is soaker is comin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 6z Nam much more organized with the system. All the models went drier with the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 Totally agree it is soupy out there today. Feels like is soaker is comin' Disgusting outside today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 First upper 40's of the fall possible next weekend north and west and possibly dipping to 50-55 in NYC. Last September we also had a shift from hot to cool mid-September. It's very difficult to maintain anything more than transient warm ups when the -EPO or +PNA keeps reloading like we have seen over the last year. NYC September 2013: 11 96 77 87 17 12 87 70 79 9 13 77 59 68 -1 14 67 54 61 -8 15 73 51 62 -6 16 73 56 65 -3 17 65 50 58 -10 18 72 51 62 -5 gfsNE_sfc_temp_171.gif Some of us have already hit the 40's this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 Clouds in the way again today - south jersey looks ok for 90s but from about CNJ north its mostly cloudy and likely to stay that way at least the next coupe of hours before the main front comes through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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