SACRUS Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 Todays Highs: Close but no cigar 87's running wild New Brunswick: 89 NYC: 87 TEB: 87 EWR: 87 PHL: 87 TTN: 87 LGA: 86 JFK: 85 ISP: 84 ACY: 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 Not trolling...and I had two pretty good beach days at the jersey shore and it was awesome on tues and wed so where was that midweek gloom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 Not trolling...and I had two pretty good beach days at the jersey shore and it was awesome on tues and wed so where was that midweek gloom Who cares? Do you come here for your forecasts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 Not trolling...and I had two pretty good beach days at the jersey shore and it was awesome on tues and wed so where was that midweek gloom Go away. Troll another site Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 Cold October = Warm winter. Warm October = Cold Winter. 'Nuff said. Here's to '60s and '70s this October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 Cold October = Warm winter. Warm October = Cold Winter. 'Nuff said. Here's to '60s and '70s this October. A repeat of October of 2002 will be great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 9/1-9/7 is going to have some impressive positive temperature departures for the first week of September. This will easily be the warmest first week of any month in 2014 so far. 9/1-9/4 NYC ...+8.5 LGA... +8.0 JFK.... +7.9 EWR.. +8.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 9/1-9/7 is going to have some impressive positive temperature departures for the first week of September. This will easily be the warmest first week of any month in 2014 so far. 9/1-9/4 NYC ...+8.5 LGA... +8.0 JFK.... +7.9 EWR.. +8.2 It pretty much guarantees that the month will end up well above average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 It pretty much guarantees that the month will end up well above average. It will be the warmest departures for the whole month. The colder departures coming up should shrink the positive departures by mid-month. So the last 10 days of the month will determine the final outcome. If we do finish with a positive monthly departure, then it probably wont be very large. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 All the models show a big cool down in the mid to long range. Winter is coming =) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 Today's 6z GFS/0z Euro show our inaugural Lakes Cutter of 2014 at 144hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 Outside chance of a direct impact from whatever forms off the Carolina coast early next week. If the front slows down some this will ride up the coast. Right now it looks like a close miss inside the benchmark. Fairly decent agreement amongst the 03z SREF members for an organized area of low pressure off the SE coast in about 4 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 Outside chance of a direct impact from whatever forms off the Carolina coast early next week. If the front slows down some this will ride up the coast. Right now it looks like a close miss inside the benchmark. Fairly decent agreement amongst the 03z SREF members for an organized area of low pressure off the SE coast in about 4 da inside the benchmark would get most of the NYC area with good rains IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 All the models show a big cool down in the mid to long range. Winter is coming =) Brunt of that cool (neg departures) should be focused over the Plains and Mid West. Looks like we have a more progressive flow being modeled once past the 15th. Next week (9/8 - 9/13) still looks at or above normal. The obvious caveat is amount of rain and if we get a soaker Wed/thu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 Consensus is still offshore but you never know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 is the system tropical/subtropical or just a noreaster? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 is the system tropical/subtropical or just a noreaster? I don't know enough to answer that question. The 12z NAM has it, but then again it's the NAM and it's at 84 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 is the system tropical/subtropical or just a noreaster? going to be interesting to see exactly what happens with the area of disturbed weather off the southeast coast going forward through early to mid next week - right now we are going to be protected by the cold front coming through this weekend - how exactly will the front interact with the area off the southeast coast in question ?? - wouldn't be surprised if the NHC decides to send an aircraft into this area to investigate for possible further development in the coming days if and when it looks to be a possible threat http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/wv-animated.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 Fog and clouds burning off should give way to sun by noon, likely not enough for 90s today. We'll se how suny we can remain tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 Brunt of that cool (neg departures) should be focused over the Plains and Mid West. Looks like we have a more progressive flow being modeled once past the 15th. Next week (9/8 - 9/13) still looks at or above normal. The obvious caveat is amount of rain and if we get a soaker Wed/thu. The 0z guidance shifted a little further east so we get into -5 to -10 departures for several days now. The Euro weeklies have cool to seasonable temperatures for the second half of September. So it may be a case of the extreme warm departures this week getting worn down to something like 0 to +1.5 by the end of the month. But we'll need to see what the last 10 days of the month does to know the final number. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 Model signals don't look quite as strong tomorrow with the front anymore, its possible that developing wave of low pressure this evening that scoots from IN up through OH and WRN NY may slow the forward momentum of the front a bit which could be the cause for the weakening convective signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 The 0z guidance shifted a little further east so we get into -5 to -10 departures for several days now. The Euro weeklies have cool to seasonable temperatures for the second half of September. So it may be a case of the extreme warm departures this week getting worn down to something like 0 to +1.5 by the end of the month. But we'll need to see what the last 10 days of the month does to know the final number. I think it'll be closer to +2 -> +3 for the final temperature departure. While a strong cool shot could occur for us in the Sept 14th-19th period, I don't anticipate the trough to remain in the East thereafter. The ECMWF weeklies last night depict a warmer than normal regime resuming for the 20th-30th period of September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 I don't know enough to answer that question. The 12z NAM has it, but then again it's the NAM and it's at 84 hours. Verbatim it has a warmer core than the surrounding area, so it would at least be a hybrid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 The 0z guidance shifted a little further east so we get into -5 to -10 departures for several days now. The Euro weeklies have cool to seasonable temperatures for the second half of September. So it may be a case of the extreme warm departures this week getting worn down to something like 0 to +1.5 by the end of the month. But we'll need to see what the last 10 days of the month does to know the final number. I think next week (9/8 - 9/13) still averages at or above normal. Most of that cool will be west but a few rainy days the end of the week will drop the departures for sure. Beyond there mixed signal of how long any trough/cool digs into the east with more troughing likely to push into the west. Today is kinds of gloomy still here with clouds stubborn to burn off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 I would think that if the front slows down some more that it will increase our odds of getting impacted by the coastal storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 The 12z GGEM brings the coastal low close enough to give parts of Long Island and coastal New England a good soaking. That's the closest model run I have seen yet. Even though the system isn't reflected well by QPF in the region, the system is "right there". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 GFS barely has anything with the coastal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 GFS barely has anything with the coastal It's not terribley surprising given that the GFS hasn't been enthusiastic about this sytem yet. The 00z ECMWF ensemble mean however had a lot of QPF over the region at 108 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 GFS barely has anything with the coastal GFS is GFS, look at that spin off Jacksonville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 GFS is GFS, look at that spin off Jacksonville. Looks like a broad circulation on radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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