Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,609
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

September 2014


Rtd208

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 992
  • Created
  • Last Reply

9/1-9/7 is going to have some impressive positive temperature departures for the

first week of September. This will easily be the warmest first week of any month

in 2014 so far.

9/1-9/4

NYC ...+8.5

LGA... +8.0

JFK.... +7.9

EWR.. +8.2

It pretty much guarantees that the month will end up well above average.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It pretty much guarantees that the month will end up well above average.

 

It will be the warmest departures for the whole month. The colder departures coming up should shrink the positive

departures by mid-month. So the last 10 days of the month will determine the final outcome.

If we do finish with a positive monthly departure, then it probably wont be very large.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Outside chance of a direct impact from whatever forms off the Carolina coast early next week. If the front slows down some this will ride up the coast. Right now it looks like a close miss inside the benchmark.

 

Fairly decent agreement amongst the 03z SREF members for an organized area of low pressure off the SE coast in about 4 days.

 

f87.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Outside chance of a direct impact from whatever forms off the Carolina coast early next week. If the front slows down some this will ride up the coast. Right now it looks like a close miss inside the benchmark.

 

Fairly decent agreement amongst the 03z SREF members for an organized area of low pressure off the SE coast in about 4 da

inside the benchmark would get most of the NYC area with good rains IMO

Link to comment
Share on other sites

All the models show a big cool down in the mid to long range. Winter is coming =)

 

Brunt of that cool (neg departures) should be focused over the Plains and Mid West.  Looks like we have a more progressive flow being modeled once past the 15th.  Next week (9/8 - 9/13) still looks at or above normal.  The obvious caveat is amount of rain and if we get a soaker Wed/thu. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

is the system tropical/subtropical or just a noreaster?

going to be interesting to see exactly what happens with the area of disturbed weather off the southeast coast going forward through early to mid next week - right now we are going to be protected by the cold front coming through this weekend - how exactly will the front interact with the area off the southeast coast  in question ?? - wouldn't be surprised if the NHC decides to send an aircraft into this area to investigate for possible further development in the coming days if and when it looks to be a possible threat 

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/wv-animated.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Brunt of that cool (neg departures) should be focused over the Plains and Mid West.  Looks like we have a more progressive flow being modeled once past the 15th.  Next week (9/8 - 9/13) still looks at or above normal.  The obvious caveat is amount of rain and if we get a soaker Wed/thu. 

 

The 0z guidance shifted a little further east so we get into -5 to -10 departures for several  days now. The Euro weeklies

have cool to seasonable temperatures for the second half of September. So it may be a case of the extreme warm

departures this week getting worn down to something like 0 to +1.5 by the end of the month. But we'll need

to see what the last 10 days of the month does to know the final number.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The 0z guidance shifted a little further east so we get into -5 to -10 departures for several  days now. The Euro weeklies

have cool to seasonable temperatures for the second half of September. So it may be a case of the extreme warm

departures this week getting worn down to something like 0 to +1.5 by the end of the month. But we'll need

to see what the last 10 days of the month does to know the final number.

 

 

I think it'll be closer to +2 -> +3 for the final temperature departure. While a strong cool shot could occur for us in the Sept 14th-19th period, I don't anticipate the trough to remain in the East thereafter. The ECMWF weeklies last night depict a warmer than normal regime resuming for the 20th-30th period of September.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The 0z guidance shifted a little further east so we get into -5 to -10 departures for several  days now. The Euro weeklies

have cool to seasonable temperatures for the second half of September. So it may be a case of the extreme warm

departures this week getting worn down to something like 0 to +1.5 by the end of the month. But we'll need

to see what the last 10 days of the month does to know the final number.

 

I think next week (9/8 - 9/13) still averages at or above normal.  Most of that cool will be west but a few rainy days the end of the week will drop the departures for sure.  Beyond there mixed signal of how long any trough/cool digs into the east with more troughing likely to push into the west.

 

Today is kinds of gloomy still here with clouds stubborn to burn off

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...