IsentropicLift Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 Until you change to rain in every other winter event. Fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 Fixed It doesn't happen all the time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 The 12z GFS has a very interesting setup for next Thursday with a slow moving surface low Interesting how? It's 180 hours out, and verbatim it would have little impact for people south of I-90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 It doesn't happen all the time Last year we lucked out with almost every storm and we were on the right side of the gradient pattern too. Only event that was notable that gave P type issues was the febraury storm and the wraparound snows that never came in the evening/night as the storm pulled away. This winter though looks VERY promising thus far. currently if the weak el nino does develop for DJFM we'll have a better shot at seeing more moisture laden southern stream disturbances phasing with northern branch. We get the -EPO and -NAO to work in tandem i cant see how the snow gods dont smile down upon thee for winter 14'-15' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 Interesting how? It's 180 hours out, and verbatim it would have little impact for people south of I-90. an inch of rain is little impact? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 Interesting how? It's 180 hours out, and verbatim it would have little impact for people south of I-90. It shows alot of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 an inch of rain is little impact? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 Last year we lucked out with almost every storm and we were on the right side of the gradient pattern too. Only event that was notable that gave P type issues was the febraury storm and the wraparound snows that never came in the evening/night as the storm pulled away. This winter though looks VERY promising thus far. currently if the weak el nino does develop for DJFM we'll have a better shot at seeing more moisture laden southern stream disturbances phasing with northern branch. We get the -EPO and -NAO to work in tandem i cant see how the snow gods dont smile down upon thee for winter 14'-15' 2011-12 initially looked promising too but never materialized. It's impossible to make any call for winter until mid-late October IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 The 12z GFS shows a ton of a rain with a slow moving deepening surface low. The bulk goes to New England but it's 7 days out. The 12z GGEM has a weaker version. Waiting on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 Interesting how? It's 180 hours out, and verbatim it would have little impact for people south of I-90. That's only a six hour total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 an inch of rain is little impact? An inch of rain in six hours with more to come is suddenly a non-event. This could be the first synoptic heavy rainfall storm of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 2011-12 initially looked promising too but never materialized. It's impossible to make any call for winter until mid-late October IMO. once we got to December, the pattern locked in and you could tell a stinker was incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 12z Euro still has the low 90s before late afternoon convection on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 The Euro has the surface low for next Thursday as well and it's wet just about all next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 Considering the cool shot coming into the Northern Plains next week, along with residual warmth to the south, baroclinicity should be rather high, yielding the high probability of a profilic rainmaker via a surface low near the East Coast next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 Lol didnt you say last weekend and this week would be wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 Lol didnt you say last weekend and this week would be wet Hi, I'm the reply button, have we met? It's very difficult to reply to a post when you have no idea who it's directed towards, and you do this all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 Lol didnt you say last weekend and this week would be wet Wouldnt be knocking Dsnow, the guy is very knowledgable and meteorology is far from an exact science. you always got something to say my friend..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 Lol didnt you say last weekend and this week would be wet Great post! Who what where when Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stemwinder Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 Considering the cool shot coming into the Northern Plains next week, along with residual warmth to the south, baroclinicity should be rather high, yielding the high probability of a profilic rainmaker via a surface low near the East Coast next week. Sure could use a good rainmaker in C NJ, which missed the last few rain events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 Considering the cool shot coming into the Northern Plains next week, along with residual warmth to the south, baroclinicity should be rather high, yielding the high probability of a profilic rainmaker via a surface low near the East Coast next week. I agree in general. There is some uncertainty though, with the track or evolution of this system, depending how the baroclonic zone sets up, next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 I see. I guess I need to learn more. Nothing wrong with learning. Everyone makes mistakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 My post was for yanks that was obvioud and yes he did post that sruff last week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 My post was for yanks that was obvioud and yes he did post that sruff last week What does obvioud and sruff mean? I don't recall making any posts last week regarding precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 Oh you better check your posts from the 26th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 Oh you better check your posts from the 26th The 12z ECMWF ensemble mean and to a somewhat lesser extent the 12z GEFS mean keep the ridge in a favorable position for hot, humid weather with repeated chances at convection/rain as spokes of energy ride along the stalled out frontal boundary. Although the operational models have backed off on what once looked like a very wet period, things certainly don't look stellar for outdoor activites. What about this post was incorrect? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 Things dont look stellar for outdoor actiities...you said weekend thru middle of week....wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 Things dont look stellar for outdoor actiities...you said weekend thru middle of week....wrong Okay I'm going to get into an argument with you over semantics. The past weekend was crappy. Most areas experienced excessive cloudiness and humidity. Some areas saw storms which are always a hit or miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 Things dont look stellar for outdoor actiities...you said weekend thru middle of week....wrong Stop trolling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 2011-12 initially looked promising too but never materialized. It's impossible to make any call for winter until mid-late October IMO. The +EPO/+NAO pattern in October pretty much told you everything that you needed to know about the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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