Rtd208 Posted August 27, 2014 Share Posted August 27, 2014 The decline into the fall and winter months has begun, discuss here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted August 27, 2014 Share Posted August 27, 2014 Expect the first two weeks of September to be very warm with modest humidity. The -PNA and +EPO will be the cause of the sudden warm spell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted August 27, 2014 Share Posted August 27, 2014 Hot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted August 27, 2014 Share Posted August 27, 2014 Looks like very warm pattern next week. 500mb heights and 850mb temps support 90F+ next week. But disturbances on top of the ridge, clouds, onshore flow or sea-breezes might keep high temps in the 80s, for at least some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 27, 2014 Share Posted August 27, 2014 Hot! Congrats took long enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted August 27, 2014 Share Posted August 27, 2014 this time of year the heat is useless,like march snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted August 27, 2014 Share Posted August 27, 2014 Who says? Go to the beach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted August 27, 2014 Share Posted August 27, 2014 Looks like very warm pattern next week. 500mb heights and 850mb temps support 90F+ next week. But disturbances on top of the ridge, clouds, onshore flow or sea-breezes might keep high temps in the 80s, for at least some areas. 12Z runs are now quicker with troughs into the region vs previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 27, 2014 Share Posted August 27, 2014 12Z runs are now quicker with troughs into the region vs previous runs. I don't see much troughing on the gfs/ecm 12z guidance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 27, 2014 Share Posted August 27, 2014 has nyc ever had a first heat wave this late? it's possible if convection is timed right early next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 27, 2014 Share Posted August 27, 2014 has nyc ever had a first heat wave this late? it's possible if convection is timed right early next week yes...1960 comes to mind... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 28, 2014 Share Posted August 28, 2014 has nyc ever had a first heat wave this late? it's possible if convection is timed right early next week Sunday potential hottest day of the year? Only caveat is clouds It appears, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 28, 2014 Share Posted August 28, 2014 yes...1960 comes to mind... the latest first three day heat wave 90 or higher is 9/20-23/1914...1915 had it's first about a week before and 1985 9/4-6... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 28, 2014 Share Posted August 28, 2014 Incredible ridge on the 12z ECMWF over the eastern half of the country. If anything develops west of 50W it should have little chance of an early recurve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 28, 2014 Share Posted August 28, 2014 I like the 1960 reference unc. The weenie winter of our boyhoods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 28, 2014 Share Posted August 28, 2014 another crazy hot euro run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 28, 2014 Share Posted August 28, 2014 I like the 1960 reference unc. The weenie winter of our boyhoods. if it only lasted a little longer but that's being selfish...There were record snow depths in Brooklyn after the 2/4/61 storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 28, 2014 Share Posted August 28, 2014 Yeah absolute inferno on the 12z ECMWF. If correct many locations will be catching up on their lack of 90F days. Suggests high temps of 87-90F+ every day from Sunday the 31st through Saturday the 6th, with potential for mid 90s Fri/Sat of next week as heights reach 588dm. As said a very impressive pattern for early September warmth. Sunday the 31st: Wednesday the 3rd: Friday the 5th: Saturday the 6th: Temp departures should be enormous by September 10th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted August 28, 2014 Share Posted August 28, 2014 What's the wind direction during this period? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 28, 2014 Share Posted August 28, 2014 Are Septembers positive departures gonna be another March 2012 or whatever year those crazy high departures were? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted August 28, 2014 Share Posted August 28, 2014 Are Septembers positive departures gonna be another March 2012 or whatever year those crazy high departures were? Average highs the first week are dropping below 80 so even upper 80's temps would be +10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted August 28, 2014 Share Posted August 28, 2014 I like the 1960 reference unc. The weenie winter of our boyhoods. I was 13 living in dyker heights when that 2nd week of december 2 day storm hit. ( 17.5 for 112) great winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 I was 13 living in dyker heights when that 2nd week of december 2 day storm hit. ( 17.5 for 112) great winter. I'm a year older than you. The memory of very heavy snow, gale force winds, temps hovering near 10 at my home in Teaneck warms my heart these nearly 54 years later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 if it only lasted a little longer but that's being selfish...There were record snow depths in Brooklyn after the 2/4/61 storm... That Friday night at the height of the storm was one of those rare times that you could see the accumulation as the flakes were pounding down. Wonderful storm but the end of winter thereafter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 That Friday night at the height of the storm was one of those rare times that you could see the accumulation as the flakes were pounding down. Wonderful storm but the end of winter thereafter. That's what it was like during January 26th 2011. You could literally see the snow pile up before your eyes. Same thing with the Valentine's Day storm just this last winter. Awesome stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 That's what it was like during January 26th 2011. You could literally see the snow pile up before your eyes. Same thing with the Valentine's Day storm just this last winter. Awesome stuff. Yup...both of those were awesome. Also during the mega band across LI during the blizzard in Dec 2009. I'm sure north shore folks will say this about Feb 2013, Hudson Valley folks during one of the Feb 2010 storms (I always mix up the 2..I'm not counting the virga fest early in the month) and NENJ will say this about the boxing day blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 1961 is the warmest September on record...We got hit with a tropical wave and just missed getting hit with hurricane Esther that month...I was 12 in 61 and the winter of 60-61 gave way to Mantle and Maris for the Summer...We got a snowstorm on Christmas Eve 61 that was a smaller version of the February 4th storm...1961-62 had 1/3 the snowfall that 1960-61 had...I remember waking up one morning and putting on the radio and heard a heavy snow warning for the day...I looked out the window and the Sun was coming out...Even the Ash Wednesday storm in March 62 missed us to the south... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 What's the wind direction during this period? The map probably oversmooths the temps, but looks like southerly every day except maybe Wednesday. I'm not optimistic for much heat for the southeast half of the city and Long Island through this stretch, maybe for you could be a different story. It's a classic pattern where EWR can make it to 95 easily but JFK struggles to get past 83-84. So for many on the forum near the coast, looks like a fairly average late August regime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 The latest Euro and ensembles are hinting that the core of the heat will track just to our south next week instead of passing right over the region. So my guess is that we won't see maximum temperatures across the metro as high as we saw last September 11th when the core of the 20C+ at 850 went right over us. But maybe Newark can get within a few degrees. get_legacy_plot-web248-20140829091304-4168-1447.gif get_legacy_plot-web248-20140829091346-4165-1405.gif 13091112.gif Pretty dramatic shift on the 06z GFS from a ridge pattern to split flow. A few days in the 10-14 day range with highs <75F and then the polar vortex attempts to make an early visit. We will have to see if future runs continue that theme. The 00z GFS had a pronounced eastern ridge during the same period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 Polar vortexes are almost always overdone at this time of year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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