September 2014 temperature forecast contest

[Roger Smith]

A very warm start to the month in eastern and central states, with these anomalies after five days:

 

______DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

 

_5d__+8.9 __ +8.3 __ +9.5___+6.0 __ +3.1 __ +1.4____--2.6 __ +2.3 __ +0.4

 

what's now required 6th to 30th to produce max, consensus and min of our forecasts (excluding normal for DCA lowest, that needs --1.7):

 

Max __+2.7 __ +2.4 __ +2.2 __ +1.1 __ +1.9 __ +2.0 ____ +2.0 __ +0.9 __ +2.0

Con __+0.4 __ +0.7 __ --0.1 __ --0.7 __ +0.9 __ +0.5 ____ +0.3 __ +0.1 __ --0.8

Min __ --1.6 __ --2.4 __--2.6 __ --5.5 __ --4.4 __ --2.0 ____ --2.6 __ --3.7 __ --3.3

[Roger Smith]

As cooler air masses work their way south, the early heat is fading somewhat except in the south, while DEN and SEA build slowly (despite -20 anomalies over parts of western Canada recently).

 

______DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

 

10d__+6.2 __ +6.0 __ +5.5 ___+3.1 __ +3.2 __ +2.0 ___--1.7 __ +0.1 __+2.0

 

what's now required 11th to 30th to produce max, consensus and min of our forecasts (excluding normal for DCA lowest, that needs --3.1):

 

Max __+2.6 __ +2.2 __ +2.6 __ +1.4 __ +1.7 __ +2.0 ____ +2.8 __ +1.7 __ +1.7

Con __--0.4 __ +0.0 __ --0.3 __ --0.9 __ +0.3 __ +0.1 ____ +0.6 __ +0.7 __ --1.9

Min __ --2.8 __ --4.0 __--3.8 __ --7.3 __ --6.6 __ --3.5 ____ --3.0 __ --4.3 __ --5.2

 

I haven't spent much time looking at model output yet for a countdown but noticed some rather cool temperatures ahead for the eastern stations.

[WEATHER53]

As cooler air masses work their way south, the early heat is fading somewhat except in the south, while DEN and SEA build slowly (despite -20 anomalies over parts of western Canada recently).

 

______DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

 

10d__+6.2 __ +6.0 __ +5.5 ___+3.1 __ +3.2 __ +2.0 ___--1.7 __ +0.1 __+2.0

 

what's now required 11th to 30th to produce max, consensus and min of our forecasts (excluding normal for DCA lowest, that needs --3.1):

 

Max __+2.6 __ +2.2 __ +2.6 __ +1.4 __ +1.7 __ +2.0 ____ +2.8 __ +1.7 __ +1.7

Con __--0.4 __ +0.0 __ --0.3 __ --0.9 __ +0.3 __ +0.1 ____ +0.6 __ +0.7 __ --1.9

Min __ --2.8 __ --4.0 __--3.8 __ --7.3 __ --6.6 __ --3.5 ____ --3.0 __ --4.3 __ --5.2

 

I haven't spent much time looking at model output yet for a countdown but noticed some rather cool temperatures ahead for the eastern stations.

We are going to be running some -5 to -7 for next 5 to 7 days but building up a 60  surplus for DC,NY,BOS is impressive such that even by 9/17 I think all 3 are still +2.5.

[Roger Smith]

At the halfway point, after some very cool days in the east and Midwest  but a heat wave for SEA ...

 

______DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

 

15d __+3.9 __ +2.6 __ +2.3 ___--2.3 __+3.1 __+0.6 ___--4.7 __ +0.8 __+3.1

 

I have been off-line and just catching up, will update on 18th then start a countdown with a provisional set of numbers for possible final values. Post your thoughts. Looks from the NWS 7-d as though the free fall is ending but will it warm up much more than average now to end of month?

[Roger Smith]

After. 18 days with countdown:

 

______ DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

 

_18d__ +3.3 _ +1.7 _ +1.5 ____ --2.9 _ +3.3 _ +0.5 ____ --2.3 __ +0.2 __ +3.1

 

_20d__ +3.1 _ +1.1 _ +0.5 ____ --2.1 _ +3.1 _ +0.6 ____ --1.2 __ +0.4 __ +3.3

_21d__ +3.3 _ +1.3 _ +1.0 ____ --2.1 _ +3.3 _ +0.9 ____ --1.0 __ +0.5 __ +3.7

_22d__ +3.1 _ +1.1 _ +1.0 ____ --2.2 _ +3.0 _ +1.0 ____ --0.7 __ +0.7 __ +3.7

_23d__ +2.8 _ +0.9 _ +0.9 ____ --2.1 _ +2.8 _ +0.8 ____ --0.3 __ +0.8 __ +3.7

 

_p30__ +2.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ____ 0.0 __ +2.0 __ 0.0 _____ +1.5 __ +0.5 __ +2.5

 

(19th) _ based on those,  Consensus scores are 264 for eastern, 260 for central (expanded) total of 524 and 204 out west.

SEA would be only 38 so all eight of the rest are fairly good from the field. Yer host who happens to be table leader in the main contest will be rising or falling with Consensus pretty much this month in the main contest so to gain you'll have to beat consensus for sure and have reality move away from consensus. About the highest estimated score I can spot is for blazess556 who would have 550 but quite a few around that part of the table are close to that score or at least consensus ... Out west leader Isotherm is somewhat different from Consensus for DEN and SEA but his variations cancel by trend, Mallow who was second last time we tabulated would make a move back in front if I have overcooked the coming rise at DEN and maybe even if not. DonSutherland would also move up nicely in the west on my provisionals.

 

(24th) _ Have had a look at the NWS 7-d and most of those provisionals are still plausible although NYC and BOS would work out closer to +1.5 and ORD will struggle to make it all the way to 0.0, possibly --0.5 or so. Rather than changing them above, I will review them tomorrow when I expect to have time to post a provisional scoring table, just got in from a two-week road trip. Landing at YVR was very interesting just after that front went through.

[Roger Smith]

Countdown continues with the provisional scoring attached ... this will become a final scoring report once we have the end of month data.

 

______ DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH _____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA ____

 

_24d _ +2.6 _ +0.9 _ +0.7 _____ --1.8 _ +2.5 _ +0.6 _____ +0.1 _ +1.0 _ +3.6

_25d _ +2.5 _ +0.7 _ +0.6 _____ --1.6 _ +2.4 _ +0.5 _____ +0.7 _ +1.2 _ +3.7

_26d _ +2.5 _ +0.8 _ +0.5 _____ --1.3 _ +2.3 _ +0.5 _____ +1.1 _ +1.4 _ +3.7

_27d _ +2.6 _ +1.1 _ +0.9 _____ --1.0 _ +2.3 _ +0.5 _____ +1.5 _ +1.3 _ +3.7

_28d _ +2.7 _ +1.4 _ +1.3 _____ --0.8 _ +2.2 _ +0.6 _____ +1.6 _ +1.1 _ +3.8

_29d _ +2.8 _ +1.7 _ +1.5 _____ --0.4 _ +2.2 _ +0.7 _____ +1.5 _ +0.8 _ +3.5

 

Final values will appear in the tables below ... bold type (others still provisional)

 

 

Provisional Scoring Tables for Sept 2014

 

FORECASTER ______________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___CL __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ EX ___ TOT

 

Final Anomalies __________+2.9 _+1.7 _+1.3 __ ^ ___ --0.7 _ +2.3 _+0.8 ___ ^ ___ ^

 

OHweather _______________92 __ 94 __100___ 286 ____ 90 __ 74 __ 84 ___ 248 ___ 534

Midlo Snow Maker _________ 84 __ 96 __ 92 ___ 272 ____ 78 __ 84 __ 98 ___ 260 ___ 532

goobagooba ______________78 __100__ 96 ___ 274 ____ 76 __ 98__ 82 ___ 256 ___ 530

blazess556 _______________ 70 __ 90 __ 92 ___ 252 ____ 92 __ 86 __ 98 ___ 276 ___ 528

 

Consensus _______________ 78 __ 94 __ 94 ___ 266 ____ 78 __ 80 __ 98 ___ 256 ___ 522

 

bkviking _________________ 74 __ 90 __ 94 ___ 258 ____ 88 __ 78 __ 96 ___ 262 ___ 520

metalicwx366 _____________76 __ 94 __ 94 ___ 264 ____ 72 __ 92 __ 88 ___ 252 ___ 516

stebo ___________________ 66 __ 86 __ 88 ___ 240 ____ 94 __ 82 __ 98 ___ 274 ___ 514

Isotherm ________________100__ 80 __ 78 ___ 258 ____ 74 __ 82 __ 90 ___ 246 ___ 504

hudsonvalley21 ___________ 78 __ 92 __ 80 ___ 250 ____ 80 __ 70 __ 96 ___ 246 ___ 496

Mallow __________________ 70 __ 98 __ 84 ___ 252 ____ 86 __ 66 __ 82 ___ 234 ___ 486

Roger Smith ______________86 __ 92 __ 88 ___ 266 ____ 46 __ 74 __ 98 ___ 218 ___ 484

SACRUS _________________ 86 __ 80 __ 90 ___ 256 ____ 68 __ 84 __ 76 ___ 228 ___ 484

SD ______________________62 __ 96 __ 94 ___ 252 ____ 94__ 74 __ 64 ___ 232 ___ 484

wxallannj ________________ 90 __ 80 __ 80 ___ 250 ____ 58 __ 78 __ 92 ___ 228 ___ 478

IntenseBlizzard2014 ________78 __ 80 __ 66 ___ 224 ____ 92 __ 76 __ 84 ___ 252 ___ 476

donsutherland.1 ___________94 __ 70 __ 72 ___ 236 ____ 66 __ 78 __ 92 ___ 236 ___ 472

Tenman Johnson __________ 88 __ 64 __ 56 ___ 208 ____ 76 __ 84 __100___260 ___ 468

wxdude64 _______________ 82 __ 94 __ 96 ___ 272 ____ 76 __ 74 __ 96 ___ 246 _ 528

wxdiude64 ____ (-10%) ____ 74 __ 85 __ 86 ___ 245 ____ 68 __ 67 __ 86 ___ 221 ___ 466

cpick79 __________________72 __ 84 __ 76 ___ 232 ____ 62 __ 84 __ 86 ___ 232 ___ 464

Tom ____________________ 64 __ 84 __ 90 ___ 238 ____ 60 __ 80 __ 84 ___ 224 ___ 462

UncleW __________________62 __ 76 __ 88 ___ 226 ____ 90 __ 64 __ 80 ___ 234 ___ 460

Damage in Tolland _________82 __ 64 __ 70 ___ 216 ____ 82 __ 76 __ 80 ___ 238 ___ 454

 

Normal __________________ 42 __ 66 __ 74 ___ 182 ____ 86 __ 54 __ 84___ 224 ___ 406

 

ksammut ________________ 58 __ 52 __ 60 ___ 170 ____ 64 __ 94 __ 76 ___ 234 ___ 404

RodneyS _________________46 __ 62 __ 76 ___ 184 ____ 38 __ 00 __ 54 ____ 92 ___ 276

 

 

 

Provisionai Scoring for Optional Western Contest

 

FORECASTER _____________ DEN _ PHX _ SEA _____ TOTAL

 

Provisional Anomalies _____+1.3 _ +0.6 _ +3.5

 

donsutherland.1 ___________90 __ 88 __ 66 _____ 244

SD ______________________84 __ 92 __ 60 _____ 236

Roger Smith ______________96 __ 92 __ 34 _____ 222

Mallow __________________ 60 __ 96 __ 58 _____ 214

Midlo Snow Maker _________ 60 __100__50 _____ 210

wxdude64 ________________84 __ 98 __ 50 __ 232

wxdude64 ____ (-10%) _____76 __ 88 __ 45 _____ 209

Isotherm _________________54 __ 98 __ 52 _____ 204

hudsonvalley21 ___________ 80 __ 92 __ 32 _____ 204

OHweather _______________54 __ 98 __ 50 _____ 202

bkviking _________________ 88 __ 98 __ 10 _____ 196

blazess556 _______________100__94 __ 00 _____ 194

stebo ____________________96 __ 98 __ 00 _____ 194

metalicwx366 _____________92 __ 96 __ 04 _____ 192

 

Normal __________________ 74 __ 88 __ 30 _____ 192

 

Damage in Tolland _________52 __ 92 __ 46 _____ 190

Tom ____________________ 70 __ 96 __ 22 _____ 188

wxallannj ________________ 70 __100__18 _____ 188

 

Consensus _______________ 70 __ 98 __ 18 _____ 186

 

cpick79 __________________ 74 __ 98 __ 00 _____ 172

goobagooba ______________ 56 __ 92 __ 16 _____ 164

IntenseBlizzard2014 ________50 __ 92 __ 00 _____ 142

SACRUS _________________ 48 __ 64 __ 00 ______112

ksammut _________________34 __ 34 __ 22 ______ 90

RodneyS _________________ 22 __ 32 __ 06 ______ 60

[Roger Smith]

(note -- best viewed at 100% not higher, prevents line overflow)

 

<<< --------------- Updated Annual Scoring Report Jan-Sept 2014 --------------- >>>

 

 

FORECASTER ________ DCA__NYC__BOS___CL ____ORD__ATL__IAH__EX____TOT____high scores

 

__Annual anomalies __ --0.7 _ --1.5 _ --1.1 __ ,, ___ --2.7_ --0.7_ --1.7 __ ,, _________DC..NY.BO.OR.AT.IA...CL..EX...MO

 

 

Roger Smith _________ 702 _ 696 _ 638__2036 ___588 _684_ 687___1959___ 3995 ___111 313 __ 0 _ 2 _JAN,JUN

donsutherland.1 ______ 706 _ 688 _754__2148 ___518 _ 640 _ 654___1812___ 3960 ___011 011 __ 1 _ 1 __APR

OHweather __________719 _ 697_ 746__2162 ___504 _ 671 _ 540___1715___ 3877 ___101 020 __ 1 _ 0 __SEP

 

Consensus ___________ 666 _ 688 _ 740__2094 ___462 _ 652 _ 618___1732 __ 3826 ___100 020 __ 0 _ 0

 

Mallow ______________656 _ 678 _ 724__2058 ___514 _ 631 _ 604___1749___ 3807 ___011 100 __ 0 _ 0

Isotherm ____________ 686 _ 656 _ 672__2014 ___493 _ 638 _ 624___1755___ 3769 ___110 000 __ 0 _ 0

Midlo Snow Maker _____670 _ 696 _ 740__2106 ___476 _ 578 _ 586___1640___ 3746 ___010 121 __ 0 _ 1

blazess556 ___________631 _ 685 _ 731__2047 ___451 _ 610 _ 632___1693___ 3740 ___011 010 __ 1 _ 1

Goobagooba _________ 626 _ 684 _ 712__2022 ___491 _ 592 _ 586___1669___ 3691 ___012 110 __ 1 _ 0

hudsonvalley21 _______637 _ 657 _ 688__1982 ___417 _ 617 _ 622___1656___ 3638 ___000 010 __ 0 _ 0

Tom ________________611 _ 635 _ 665__1911 ___518 _ 627 _ 513___1658___ 3569 ___001 000___ 0 _ 0 __

Tenman Johnson ______654 _ 598 _ 612__1864 ___439 _ 587 _ 636___1662___ 3526 ___210 012 __ 3 _ 1 __MAR

bkviking _____________645 _ 622 _ 695__1962 ___398 _ 633 _ 490___1521___ 3483 ___000 000 __ 0 _ 0 __MAY

stebo _______________592 _ 558 _ 684__1834 ___395 _ 602 _ 644___1641___ 3475 ___200 101 __ 0 _ 0

metalicwx366 ________ 677 _ 597 _ 579__1853 ___529 _ 578 _ 494___1601___ 3454 ___100 000 __ 0 _ 0

cpick79 _____________ 557 _ 574 _ 655__1786 ___440 _ 657 _ 560___1657___ 3443 ___000 002 __ 0 _ 1 __JUL

UncleW _____________ 506 _ 548 _ 682__1736 ___424 _ 580 _ 674___1678___ 3414 ___001 002 __ 0 _ 0

wxdude64 ___________ 596 _ 621 _ 678__1895 ___347 _ 467 _ 658___1472___ 3367 ___100 001 __ 0 _ 0

 

Normal _____________ 548 _ 528 _ 624__1700 ___414 _ 608 _ 628___1650___ 3350 ___001 103 __ 1 _ 2

 

Damage in Tolland ____ 642 _ 615 _ 659__1916 ___456 _ 553 _ 414___1423___ 3339 ___100 010 __ 1 _ 0

ksammut ____________ 546 _ 570 _ 644__1760 ___348 _ 496 _ 638___1482___ 3242 ___011 001 __ 1 _ 1 __ FEB

SD _________________ 491 _ 527 _ 615__1633 ___365 _ 579 _ 488___1432___ 3065 ___000 110 __ 1 _ 0 __ AUG

RodneyS ____________ 462 _ 528 _ 620__1610 ___337 _ 404 _ 626___1367___ 2977 ___010 101 __ 0 _ 0

[Roger Smith]

(continued from above) ...

 

wxallannj @___________ 146 _ 136 _ 136__ 418 ___154 _ 150 _ 182 ___486 ____904___000 100 __ 0 _ 1
SACRUS @ ____________158 _ 138 _ 128 _ 424 ___138 _ 160 _ 176 ___474 ____ 898___000 001 __ 0 _ 0

Chicago Storm******___ 186 _ 153 _ 148__ 487 ___117 _ 134 __ 97___ 348 ____ 835

weatherdude @_________66 __120 _ 150__ 336 ___ 115 __96 _ 126___ 337 ____ 673 ___000 010 __ 0 _ 0

H20Town_Wx @ ______ 125 __102 _ 144___371 ___ 83 __ 90 __ 60___ 233 ____ 604 ___001 000 __ 0 _ 0

IntenseBlizzard2014 @*__ 78 __ 80 __ 66___224 ___ 92 __ 76 __ 84___ 252 ____ 476

mikehobbyst @* ________84 __ 92 __ 78___ 254 ___64 __ 68 __ 80___ 212 ____ 466

Quincy @*_____________54 __ 66 __ 42___ 162 ___ 38 __ 82 __ 92___212 ____ 374

TropicalAnalystwx13 @*__88 __ 44 __ 76___ 208 ___ 26 __ 76 __ 60___162 ____ 370

swflow @ *____________74 __ 66 __ 82___ 222 ____90 __ 36 __ 00___126 ____ 348

CSheridan12 @*________46 __ 04 __ 00____ 50 ____12 __ 86 __ 44___144 ____ 192

 

__________________________________________

 

@ missed seven months

* missed one month

[Roger Smith]

Annual Scores for Optional western contest

 

 

____________________ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ____ TOTAL _____ best forecast awards ________ four season award

Annual anomalies _____--0.4_ +2.2 _ +2.3__________DEN PHX SEA _ Months ____Win,Spr,Sum,Aut _ TOT

 

 

Isotherm _____________724 __ 682 __706 ____2112 _ __ 0 0 0 _ _ _ 0 _ _ _ _ _ ___10,4,10____(24)

Mallow ______________ 766__ 644 __ 660 ____2070 ____ 3 0 0 ____ 3 FEB,APR,JUN_ 6,7,3____ (16)

Midlo Snow Maker _____ 668 __ 724__ 658 ____2050 ____ 1 1 2 ____ 0 ___________ 4,10,6____(20)

donsutherland.1 _______ 704 __ 666 __674 ____2044 ____ 0 1 1 ____ 1 __ JUL,SEP___1,6,7_____(14)

 

Consensus ____________720 __ 636 __ 598 ____1954 ____1 0 1 ____ 1 __ APR _____ 2,6,2_____ (10)

 

Roger Smith __________ 604 __ 622 __ 666 ____1890 ____ 1 0 2 ____ 0 ____________2,0,4_____ (6)

Goobagooba __________ 680 __ 676 __ 528 ____1884 ____ 1 1 0 ____ 1 __ JAN _____ 7,1,1_____ (9)

blazess556 ___________ 653 __ 624 __ 607 ____1884 ____ 1 0 2 ____ 0 _ _ _ _ _____ 5,1,2_____ (8)

metalicwx366 _________ 602 __ 625 __ 573 ___ 1800 ___________________________ 1,1,0_____ (2)

wxdude64 ____________ 689 __ 528 __ 569 ___ 1786_____1 0 1 ____ 0 ____________3,0,1_____ (4)

bkviking ______________608 __ 647 __ 490 ____1745_____0 1 0 ____ 1 __ MAR _____0,2,0_____ (2)

Damage in Tolland _____ 490 __ 600 __ 587 ___ 1677 ______________1__ MAY _____ 0,3,0_____ (3)

Tom _________________593 __ 569 __ 487 ____1649 ___________________________1,0,0_____ (1)

 

Normal ______________ 684 __ 462 __ 464 ____1610

 

hudsonvalley21*_______ 592 __ 529 __ 437 ____1558 ___________________________0,0,1_____ (1)

SD __________________426 __ 537 __ 542 ____1505 ____0 1 0
RodneyS _____________ 682 __ 352 __ 420 ____1454 ____0 1 1 ____ 1 ___ AUG _____0,0,5_____ (5)

ksammut _____________534 __ 444 __ 472 ____1450

cpick79*______________512 __ 539 __ 368 ____1419 ____0 0 1 __________________ 0,5,0 _____ (5)
OHweather ___________ 492 __ 431 __ 479 ____1402

Stebo _______________ 586 __ 402 __ 358 ____ 1346

Chicago Storm******___172 __ 108 __ 162 _____442

H20Town_Wx @ _______146 ___ 97 __ 141 _____384

wxallannj @ ___________136___150 ___ 48 _____334 ___ 0 1 0 ____0

SACRUS @ ____________ 80 ___110 ___ 80 ____ 270

Quincy @* ____________ 84 ___100 ___ 80 ____ 264 ___ 0 1 0 ____ 0

Mikehobbyst @* _______100 ___ 66 ___ 52 _____218 ___ 1 0 0 ____ 0
swflow @* ____________ 61 ___ 90 ___ 40 _____191____0 1 0 ____ 0
TropicalAnalystwx13 @* _ 54 ___ 00 ___ 92 ____ 146

IntenseBlizzard2014 @*__ 50 ___ 92 ___ 00 ____ 142
CSheridan12 @*________ 00 ___ 84 ___ 00 _____ 84 ___ 0 1 0 ____ 0
weatherdude @* _______ 12 ___ 08 ___ 30 _____ 50

___________________________________________________________

 

* months missed

@ seven months missed

[Roger Smith]

_A final report on the seasonal max contest follows_

_best forecasts in red in the table below_

 

___________________DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ___ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

 

>>EXTREMES 2014 __99 __ 92 __ 93 ______ 91 ___ 95 ___ 99 _____100 __ 116 ___ 96

 

FORECASTERS

 

Roger Smith _______104___101___101_______102___100___108______104___119___ 99

blazess556 ________103___100___ 98_______ 101___102___103______ 99___118___ 94

ksammut _________103___ 99____ 98________101___102___102______99___114___ 94

wxdude64 ________ 102___101___100________102___100___105_____101___118___ 99

cpick79 __________ 102___101___ 97_________ 95___102___104______ 97___122___ 93

metallicwx366 _____ 102___100___ 99________ 99___100___105______101___116___ 97

hudsonvalley21 ____102___100___ 96_________ 98___100___103______ 93___112___ 92

Stebo ____________102___ 98___ 96_________100___101___102_______97___117___ 92

Uncle W _________ 102___ 97___ 96__________ 99___102___104

 

Normal ___________101___100___ 98________100___101___104______ 99___115___ 92

 

Consensus ________ 101___ 99___ 97________ 99___100___102_______ 99___115___ 94

 

Midlo Snow Maker __ 100___ 99___ 97________ 98___ 97___101_______ 99___117___ 92

OHweather _______ 100___ 98___ 95________102___102___102______101___115___ 94

SD ______________ 100___ 96___ 92________ 96___103___108_______97___115___ 90

bkviking ___________99___ 98___ 95________ 97___ 98___102_______ 99___119___ 91

goobagooba _______ 99___ 98___ 94________ 95___ 99___101_______ 94___113___ 89

Isotherm __________ 99___ 96___ 96________ 95___100___102______ 102___117___ 95

Tom _____________ 98___ 99___ 94________103___101___103_______ 99___120___ 93

donsutherland.1 ____ 98___ 97___ 97_________96___100___102______100___116___ 91

Damage in Tolland __ 98___ 97___ 94________ 91___ 96___100_______102___118___ 92

Tenman Johnson ___ 97___ 96___ 96_________99___ 98___107

RodneyS __________ 97___ 96___ 94_________93___ 98___ 99_______ 98___115___ 91

 

Final report on scoring

 

 

Numbers in regular black type are degrees you have left to "use up" before reaching your prediction.

Numbers in red are error points you have already locked in by predicting lower than actual value so far.

 

Total error points are the sum of red and black numbers. For the original six stations, the totals are in bold type, and for the combination of all nine stations (entered by all but two forecasters) the grand total is in blue at the end of the row. The western subtotal is then in brackets to the right of the grand total. Scores are ranked by the totals for the original six stations. See above for winners of each station (will also be lowest error score below).

 

______ Error points too high or too low at end of season ____ TOTALS __ ^ _________ combined TOTALS __ (west)

 

 

Damage in Tolland __ 1 ___ 5 ___ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____08 _ 1__ 09 ___ 2 ___2___ 4___ 12 _ 5 __ 17 (8)

 

RodneyS __________ 2 __ 4 ___ 1 _____ 2 ___ 3 ___ 0____ 10 _ 2__ 12 ___ 2 ___ 1___ 5 __ 10 _10__ 20 (8)

 

goobagooba _______ 0___ 6 ___ 1 ____ 4 ___ 4 ___ 2 ____ 17 _ 0 __17 ____ 6 __ 3___ 7___ 17 _16 __ 33 (16)

 

Isotherm __________ 0___ 4 ___ 3 ____ 4 ___ 5 ___ 3 ____ 19 _ 0 __19 ___ 2 ___1___ 1____ 22 _ 1__ 23 (4-2nd west)

 

bkviking ___________ 0___ 6 ___ 2 ____ 6 ___ 3 ___ 3 ____ 20 _ 0 __20 ___ 1 ___3___ 5 ____23 _ 6 __ 29 (9)

 

Midlo Snow Maker __ 1 ___ 7 ___ 4 ____ 7 ___ 2 ___ 2 ____ 23 _ 0 __ 23 ____ 1 ___1___ 4____24 _ 5 __ 29 (6)

 

donsutherland.1 ____ 1 ___ 5 ___ 4 ____ 5 ___ 5 ___ 3 ____ 22 _ 1__ 23 ____ 0 ___0___ 5____ 22 _ 6 __ 28 (5)

 

SD _______________ 1 ___ 4 ___ 1 ____ 5 ___ 8 ___ 9____ 27 _ 1 __ 28 ____ 3 ___1___ 6____27 _11 __ 38 (10)

 

Tenman Johnson____ 2 ___ 4 ___ 3 ____ 8 ___ 3 ___ 8____ 26 _ 2 __ 28

 

 

Consensus ________ 2 ___ 7 ___ 4 ____ 8 ___ 5 ___ 3 ____ 29 _ 0 __ 29 ____ 1___1___ 2____29 _ 4 __ 33 (4-2nd west)

 

 

hudsonvalley21 ____ 3 ___ 8 ___ 3 ____ 7 ___ 5 ___ 4 ____ 30 _ 0 __ 30 ____ 7 ___ 4___ 4____30_ 15 _ 45 (15)

 

Stebo ____________ 3 ___ 6 ___ 3 ____ 9 ___ 6 ___ 3 ____ 30 _ 0 __ 30____ 3 ___1___ 4 ____ 31 _ 7 __38 (8)

 

OHweather ________ 1 ___ 6 ___ 2 ____11___ 7 ___ 3 ____ 30 _ 0 __ 30 ____ 1 ___1___ 2____ 31 _ 3 __ 34 (4-2nd west)

 

Uncle W __________ 3 ___ 5 ___ 3 ____ 8 ___ 7 ___ 5 ____ 31 _ 0 __ 31

 

Tom _____________ 1____ 7 ___ 1 ___ 12 ___ 6 ___ 4 ____ 30 _ 1 __ 31 ____ 1 __ 4___ 3____ 34 _ 5 __ 39 (8)

 

cpick79 __________ 3 ____ 9___ 4 _____ 4 ___ 7 ___ 5 ____ 32 _ 0 __ 32 ____ 3 __ 6___ 3 ____38 _ 6 __ 44 (12)

 

 

Normal ___________ 2 ___ 8 ___ 5 ____ 9 ___ 6 ___ 5 ____ 35 _ 0 __ 35 ____ 1 ___1___ 4____ 35 _ 6 __ 41 (6)

 

 

ksammut _________ 4 ___ 7 ___ 5 ____10___ 7 ___ 3 ____ 36 _ 0 __ 36 ____ 1 ___2___ 2____36 _ 5 __ 41 (5)

 

metallicwx366 _____ 3 ___ 8 ___ 6 ____ 8 ___ 5 ___ 6 ____ 36 _ 0 __ 36 ____ 1 ___0___ 1____38 _ 0 __ 38 (2 - winner)

 

blazess556 ________ 4 ___ 8 ___ 5____ 10___ 7 ___ 4 ____ 38 _ 0 __ 38 ____ 1 ___2___ 2 ____40 _ 3 __ 43 (5)

 

wxdude64 ________ 3 ___ 9 ___ 7 _____11___ 5 ___ 6 ___ 41 _ 0 __ 41 ____ 1 ___2___ 3 ____47 _ 0 __ 47 (6)

 

Roger Smith _______5 ___ 9 ___ 8 ____ 11___ 5 ___ 9____ 47 _ 0 __ 47 _____ 4___3___ 3 ____57 _ 0 __ 57 (10)

 

 

Congrats to Damage in Tolland for winning both the "original six" and the combined nine with lowest total error scores (9,17). RodneyS placed a close second in both contests (12,20).

... metalicwx366 won the western division with just 2 error points.

... lowest score for the eastern three was SD with 6, and for the central three, low score was again Damage in Tolland with 2.