September 2014 temperature forecast contest

[Roger Smith]

Because of the timing of the Labor Day weekend, please note that the field has a one-day extension for entering the contest without penalty this month, you can relax all weekend and make your forecast Monday evening Sept 1st if you wish. The penalties will then be 1% per hour starting on Tuesday at 06z, but to keep pace with the normal absolute deadline, penalties will increase to 2% an hour after 00z on the 5th.

 

As usual, predict the monthly temperature anomalies relative to 1981-2010 normal values for:

 

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

 

 

Good luck, the annual scoring race is becoming a frenzy as we round the turn for home. Or maybe it's just the inside of my head that's a frenzy.

[Stebo]

DCA +1.2

NYC +1.0

BOS +0.7

ORD -0.4

ATL +1.4

IAH +0.7

DEN +1.1

PHX +0.7

SEA -1.9

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

DCA +1.8

NYC +2.7

BOS +3.0

ORD -0.3

ATL +1.1

IAH +1.6

DEN -1.2

PHX +0.2

SEA -2.8

[Tom]

DCA: +1.1 NYC: +0.9 BOS: +0.8 ORD: +1.3 ATL: +1.3 IAH: +1.6 DEN: -0.2 PHX: +0.8 SEA: -0.4

[hudsonvalley21]

DCA _____NYC____BOS____ORD____ATL_____IAH________DEN_____PHX_____SEA

 

+1.8 ___+2.1 ____+2.3 ___ +0.3 ___+0.8 ____+1.0 _______+0.3 ____+0.2 ____+0.1

[Damage In Tolland]

DCA +3.8

NYC +3.5

BOS +2.8

ORD +0.2

ATL +1.1

IAH +1.8

DEN -1.1

PHX +1.0

SEA -0.8

[Quixotic1]

DCA +1.8

NYC +1.7

BOS +1.5

ORD +0.5

ATL +2.2

IAH +1.7

DEN -0.9

PHX +1.0

SEA -0.7

[Scotty Lightning]

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

1.0        1.5      1.0           -1.0       1.0       -1.0          0.5       1.0        1.5

[N. OF PIKE]

DCA 1.5 NYC 2.5 BOS 2.5 ORD 1.2 ATL 1.5 IAH 1.5

DEN 0 PHX .5 SEA -1.5

[metalicwx366]

DCA +1.7

NYC +1.4

BOS +1.6

ORD +0.7

ATL +1.9

IAH +1.4

DEN +0.9

PHX +0.8

SEA -1.3

[uncle W]

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH

+1.0....+0.5....+0.7......-0.2.....+0.5.....-0.2

[bkviking]

DCA +1.6

NYC +1.2

BOS +1.0

ORD -0.1

ATL +1.2

IAH +0.6

DEN +0.7

PHX +0.7

SEA -1.0

[Mallow]

DCA _____NYC____BOS____ORD____ATL_____IAH________DEN_____PHX_____SEA

 

+0.8  ____+0.9 ____+1.3 ___ -0.2 ___+0.1  ____-0.4 _______-0.6  ____+0.5 ____+0.7

[ksammut]

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

 

+0.8___-0.7__-0.7_____-2.5____+2.0___-0.4____-2.0___-2.7___-0.4

[donsutherland1]

DCA _____NYC____BOS____ORD____ATL_____IAH________DEN_____PHX_____SEA

 

+3.2 ___+3.2 ____+2.7 ___ +1.0 ___+1.2 ____+0.4 _______+0.8 ____+1.2 ____+1.8

[Isotherm]

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

+2.9     +2.7   +2.4        +0.6    +1.4      +0.3         -1.0      +0.5      +1.1

[Roger Smith]

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

 

+2.2 _ +2.1 _ +1.9 ____ +2.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.7 ____ +1.1 _ +1.0 _ +0.2

 

just a reminder, penalty-free deadline was extended by 24h due to the Labor Day weekend, so you can also edit freely until 06z Sep 2nd, around then I will be assembling the table of entries. Good luck everybody.

[WEATHER53]

DCA:+3.5

NYC:+3.5

BOS:+3.5

ORD:+0.5

ATL:+1.5

IAH:+0.8

[wxallannj]

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

+2.4     +2.7      +2.3        +1.4      +1.2    +0.4        -0.2       +0.6     -0.6

[RodneyS]

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

+0.2     -0.2     +0.1         -3.8     -3.3     -1.5         -2.6       -2.8     -1.2

 

[blazess556]

DCA +1.4

NYC +1.2

BOS +0.9

ORD -0.3

ATL +1.6

IAH +0.9

DEN +1.3

PHX +0.9

SEA -1.7

[SACRUS]

DCA _____NYC____BOS____ORD____ATL_____IAH________DEN_____PHX_____SEA

 

+2.2 ___+2.7 ____+1.8 ___ +0.9 ___+1.5 ____+2.0 _______-1.3 ____-1.2 ____-2.1

[Midlo Snow Maker]

DCA +2.1

NYC +1.9

BOS +1.7

ORD +0.4

ATL +1.5

IAH +0.9

DEN -0.7

PHX +0.6

SEA +1.0

[Mallow]

 

DCA _____NYC____BOS____ORD____ATL_____IAH________DEN_____PHX_____SEA

 

+0.8  ____+0.9 ____+1.3 ___ -0.2 ___+0.1  ____-0.4 _______-0.6  ____+0.5 ____+0.7

 

 

Updating because I rarely go too extreme...

 

DCA _____NYC____BOS____ORD____ATL_____IAH________DEN_____PHX_____SEA

 

+1.4  ___+1.6 ___+2.1 ___ +0.0 ___+0.6  ___-0.1 _______-0.7  ____+0.4 ____+1.4

[OHweather]

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

 

+2.5__+2.0___+1.3____-0.2____+1.0___0.0_____-1.0____+0.5___+1.0

[Roger Smith]

Forecasts for September 2014

 

 

FORECASTER ______________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ____ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ______ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

Damage in Tolland _________+3.8 _ +3.5 _ +2.8 ___ +0.2 _ +1.1 _ +1.8 ____ --1.1 _ +1.0 _ --0.8

Tenman Johnson __________ +3.5 _ +3.5 _ +3.5 ___ +0.5 _ +1.5 _ +0.8

donsutherland.1 ___________+3.2 _ +3.2 _ +2.7 ___ +1.0 _ +1.2 _ +0.4 ____ +0.8 _ +1.2 _ +1.8

Isotherm _________________+2.9 _ +2.7 _ +2.4 ___ +0.6 _ +1.4 _ +0.3 ____ --1.0 _ +0.5 _ +1.1

OHweather _______________+2.5 _ +2.0 _ +1.3 ___ --0.2 _ +1.0 __ 0.0 ____ --1.0 _ +0.5 _ +1.0

wxallannj ________________ +2.4 _ +2.7 _ +2.3 ___ +1.4 _ +1.2 _ +0.4 ____ --0.2 _ +0.6 _ --0.6

SACRUS _________________ +2.2  _ +2.7 _ +1.8 ___ +0.9 _ +1.5 _ +2.0 ____ --1.3 _ --1.2 _ --2.1

Roger Smith ______________ +2.2 _ +2.1 _ +1.9 ___ +2.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.7 ____ +1.1 _ +1.0 _ +0.2

Midlo Snow Maker _________ +2.1 _ +1.9 _ +1.7 ___ +0.4 _ +1.5 _ +0.9 ____ --0.7 _ +0.6 _ +1.0

wxdude64 ____ (-10%) _____+2.0 _ +2.0 _ +1.5 ___ +0.5 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ____ +0.5 _ +0.5 _ +1.0

IntenseBlizzard2014 ________+1.8 _ +2.7 _ +3.0 ___ --0.3 _ +1.1 _ +1.6 ____ --1.2 _ +0.2 _ --2.8

hudsonvalley21 ___________ +1.8 _ +2.1 _ +2.3 ___ +0.3 _ +0.8 _ +1.0 ____ +0.3 _ +0.2 _ +0.1

 

Consensus _______________ +1.8 _ +2.0 _ +1.6 ___ +0.4 _ +1.3 _ +0.7 ____ --0.2 _ +0.5 _ --0.6

 

goobagooba ______________ +1.8 _ +1.7 _ +1.5 ___ +0.5 _ +2.2 _ +1.7 ____ --0.9 _ +1.0 _ --0.7

metalicwx366 _____________+1.7 _ +1.4 _ +1.6 ___ +0.7 _ +1.9 _ +1.4 ____ +0.9 _ +0.8 _ --1.3

bkviking _________________ +1.6 _ +1.2 _ +1.0 ___ --0.1 _ +1.2 _ +0.6 ____ +0.7 _ +0.7 _ --1.0

cpick79 __________________ +1.5 _ +2.5 _ +2.5 ___ +1.2 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 _____ 0.0 _ +0.5 _ --1.5

Mallow __________________ +1.4 _ +1.6 _ +2.1 _____0.0 _ +0.6 _ --0.1 ____ --0.7 _ +0.4 _ +1.4

blazess556 _______________ +1.4 _ +1.2 _ +0.9 ___ --0.3 _ +1.6 _ +0.9 ____ +1.3 _ +0.9 _ --1.7

stebo ___________________ +1.2 _ +1.0 _ +0.7 ___ --0.4 _ +1.4 _ +0.7 ____ +1.1 _ +0.7 _ --1.9

Tom ____________________ +1.1 _ +0.9 _ +0.8 ____+1.3 _ +1.3 _ +1.6 ____ --0.2 _ +0.8 _ --0.4

SD ______________________ +1.0 _ +1.5 _ +1.0 ___ --1.0 _ +1.0 _ --1.0 ____ +0.5 _ +1.0 _ +1.5

UncleW __________________ +1.0 _ +0.5 _ +0.7 ___ --0.2 _ +0.5 _ --0.2

ksammut _________________+0.8 _ --0.7 _ --0.7 ___ --2.5 _ +2.0 _ --0.4 ____ --2.0 _ --2.7 _ --0.4

RodneyS _________________ +0.2 _ --0.2 _ +0.1 ___ --3.8 _ --3.3 _ --1.5 ____ --2.6 _ --2.8 _ --1.2

 

Normal __________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ______ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ______ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

 

 

Welcome IntenseBlizzard2014.
 

 

 

[wxdude64]

Late again, sorry visiting son in Colorado and forgot!

DCA  +2.0

NYC  +2.0

BOS  +1.5

ORD  +0.5

ATL  +1.0

IAH  +1,0

DEN +0.5

PHX  +0.5

SEA +1.0

[Roger Smith]

UPDATE on the seasonal max contest ... NYC hit 92 and BOS 93 on Tuesday Sept 2nd, both one degree higher than previous seasonal maxes. Table has been adjusted in the July thread at this location:

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/43968-july-2014-temperature-forecast-contest/

 

Damage in Tolland followed closely by RodneyS lead the contest in both the "original six" and for all nine stations.

 

Metalicwx366 has the low error score (2 at this point) for the western three.

 

Yer host is dead last and needs the mother of all mid-September heat waves to move up.

 

Will bring the table over here later in the month.

[hudsonvalley21]

Thanks for all of your work Roger   

[WEATHER53]

Even with the upcoming cooler temps DCA, NYC, BOS will be +4.0, or warmer, by the 10th.