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September 2014 General Discussion


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if the models are to be trusted (and i think they are) the line should erupt just se of I55

 

Yeah, I think they will handle this aspect of the pattern decently...their struggles have been more in line with the handling of ongoing morning convection strength and placement...I would give a solid nod to the hi-res depiction you posted above since there isn't all that much to muddy the waters as it stands right now

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LOT getting ready to pull back pops

 

DESTABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER ALONG WITH FORCED ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD EVENTUALLY
CAUSE CAP TO BUST...BUT LIKELY NOT UNTIL THE FRONT IS AT LEAST TO
A CHICAGO TO PERU LINE IF NOT FARTHER SOUTHEAST. WILL BE REWORKING
POP GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT THIS LINE OF THINKING...INCLUDING VERY
LITTLE THREAT OF PRECIP OVER NORTHWEST CWA AND STEADILY DECREASING
CHANCE FROM THE NORTHWEST SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. POST FRONT RAIN STILL A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS AFOREMENTIONED KS/NE SHORTWAVE TRACKS
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION.
 

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85 here with 72% humidity.  Winds are WSW about 5-7mph, gusts to about 20.

 

Convection on the radar died.  Nothing going to happen today.  It looks like the kids took rain ponchos to school for nothing.

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