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September 2014 General Discussion


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Currently the NWS forecasts 90 for Toledo tomorrow. There have been only 4 days of 90 degree temperatures in Toledo this summer. In my memory, these 4(or 5) days of 90+ would be about the minimum number of 90 degree days per year at Toledo. I am not 100% sure of that though.

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Currently the NWS forecasts 90 for Toledo tomorrow. There have been only 4 days of 90 degree temperatures in Toledo this summer. In my memory, these 4(or 5) days of 90+ would be about the minimum number of 90 degree days per year at Toledo. I am not 100% sure of that though.

While its certainly well below normal, its not record breaking.

 

20 most # of 90F days at Toledo since 1873

44 - 1988

38 - 1955

38 - 2002

35 - 1953

34 - 1952

34 - 1995

33 - 1964

32 - 1934

32 - 2011

32 - 2012

30 - 1944

29 - 1936

29 - 1949

28 - 1931

27 - 1916

27 - 1933

27 - 1959

27 - 2005

26 - 1894

26 - 1999

 

20 least # of 90F days at Toledo since 1873

0 - 1907

1 - 1875

1 - 1877

1 - 1882

1 - 1915

2 - 1979

2 - 2000

3 - 1885

3 - 1992

4 - 1883

4 - 1889

4 - 1905

4 - 1909

4 - 1950

4 - 1958

4 - 1970

4 - 2014

5 - 1878

5 - 1909

5 - 1960

5 - 1975

5 - 1981

5 - 2009

 

Of course, like I did with Detroit, if you start the chart in 1916, it has a whole new look

2 - 1979

2 - 2000

3 - 1992

4 - 1950

4 - 1958

4 - 1970

4 - 2014

5 - 1960

5 - 1975

5 - 1981

5 - 2009

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While its certainly well below normal, its not record breaking.

 

 

Of course, like I did with Detroit, if you start the chart in 1916, it has a whole new look

2 - 1979

2 - 2000

3 - 1992

4 - 1950

4 - 1958

4 - 1970

4 - 2014

5 - 1960

5 - 1975

5 - 1981

5 - 2009

I was just thinking of posting that 1992 and 2000 were the most likely to have a low number of 90's, and I was right. I know for sure that I didn't use my AC in July 2000 in SE Michigan.

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Looks like we have at least a 1-2% chance of hitting 90 tomorrow.  850 mb temps near 20C with pretty good mixing.  Clouds/precip are a potential problem.  Bottom line, gotta be skeptical about any setup that is not a slam dunk. 

 

1-2% chance :lol:

 

Normally I make a half-assed attempt at jinxing it, but I almost feel bad for you...so I won't. Good luck tomorrow. Time is running out... 

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Let's not get too crazy. 

 

IND going with 88 for us, mentioning clouds.

 

Realistically, there's about 3-4 weeks left of 90 degree potential.  Most of September's daily record highs are in the 90s though they tend to only be low 90s by the last week of the month.  I think LAF has had 90s in October 5 times, probably a bit more at the COOP.  Climo aside, it just kinda feels like it's not going to happen if we make it past tomorrow.

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Realistically, there's about 3-4 weeks left of 90 degree potential.  Most of September's daily record highs are in the 90s though they tend to only be low 90s by the last week of the month.  I think LAF has had 90s in October 5 times, probably a bit more at the COOP.  Climo aside, it just kinda feels like it's not going to happen if we make it past tomorrow.

 

Single digit percent chances of 90º+, once we get past September 13. Data is for IND (airport from 1943-2013). Used IND considering it has a consistent/good longterm record, unlike LAF. But, chances should be about the same for us all the same.

 

 

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Single digit percent chances of 90º+, once we get past September 13. Data is for IND (airport from 1943-2013). Used IND considering it has a consistent/good longterm record, unlike LAF. But, chances should be about the same for us all the same.

 

 

attachicon.gifIND Sep-Oct 90º+ day %.png

 

One of the more impressive ones for IND has to be 9/29/1953...97 degrees that day.  The next highest temp recorded on that day?  88 in 1952 and 1986.

 

Edit:  wow, it was 96 degrees at 11 AM.  Very dry airmass.

 

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KIND/1953/9/29/DailyHistory.html?req_city=Indianapolis+International&req_state=IN&req_statename=Indiana

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0.81" from this morning's very unexpected storms.  One of the crashes of thunder woke me out of a sound sleep and about grenaded my heart lol.  Scared the living crap out of me. 

 

Lingering clouds through midday kept us from reaching our 5th 90+ of the year.  Made it to 86.  Dews have really come up though, and has made it to 75 at the moment.

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0.81" from this morning's very unexpected storms. One of the crashes of thunder woke me out of a sound sleep and about grenaded my heart lol. Scared the living crap out of me.

Lingering clouds through midday kept us from reaching our 5th 90+ of the year. Made it to 86. Dews have really come up though, and has made it to 75 at the moment.

Lol....that happen to me once about 6 or 7 years ago when our house got struck...from sound asleep to 5 seconds of panic. Dang near melted my cell that was on the charger too

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83F./74F...  greasy underpants around here.

 

Last day with dews in the 70fs...bank it...  summer done..over ... bring on the leaf change...going to be a good year unless all the leaves freeze solid in 8-10 days. 

 

Brother is bear hunting in Tomahawk, WI...said their hotel was flooded this morning and they lost power.  The guy he is with (guy with the tag) shot at a big black bear (250+) and missed because he was shaking so bad (guy is scared of bears!)...   good stuff.

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