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September 2014 General Discussion


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Failed to hit 60F again in MKE.  Interestingly, more than half our highs this month have been in the 50s or 80s.  Typically September does not experience big temp swings compared to the spring months, 60s and 70s are much more common than flipping between the 80s and 50s.  Interesting month except in the thunderstorm department.

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You're up pretty high for that area. The surface of Lake Superior is about 602 ft. You'll get some orographic lift where you're located. Looking forward to your picture posts in the future!

 

Was jealous last winter with the snow depths at your house. This winter there will need to be weenie warnings posted with your pics. Congrats on the new house... So when is the house warming party??

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Was jealous last winter with the snow depths at your house. This winter there will need to be weenie warnings posted with your pics. Congrats on the new house... So when is the house warming party??

 

He's going to have snow on the ground by Thanksgiving most likely. Talk about an area that has a extended snow pack every winter. 

 

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Chillin' off into the low 50s late this evening. Seemed to have lost the clouds for the time being.

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Eh?

 

 

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0103 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
STRONG TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING
SATURDAY OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST REGIONS. A FEW OF
THE SEVERE STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS. OTHER STRONG TO
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN.

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE AND MODESTLY AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL EXIST FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND ON
SATURDAY. A LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY CROSSING THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES WILL MOVE EAST TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY AND
THEN UNDERGO FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY
AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IMPULSE ACCELERATES SOUTHEAST OUT OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING
DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN WI/LOWER
MI AND PARTS OF INDIANA/IL COINCIDENT WITH DAYTIME
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AND STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS.

A CLOSED MID/UPPER LOW NOW TAKING SHAPE OVER CA IS FORECAST TO DRIFT
INLAND/EASTWARD THROUGH LATE SATURDAY. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ON THE
EASTERN FLANK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL IMPINGE UPON ANTECEDENT
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN.

...LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER MIDWEST...
SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ALONG
AND AHEAD OF A MODEST COLD FRONT SPREADING SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER
MS VALLEY AND NORTHERN LOWER MI. LIFT ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS STRONGER MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS DEVELOP
OVER WI/LM. RELATIVELY STOUT WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD AID MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/LOWER
MI...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS LIKELY CLIMBING INTO THE LOW-MID 60S F
BY AFTERNOON. WHILE EARLY DAY STORMS MAY STRUGGLE FROM LACK OF
STRONGER SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION...SUFFICIENTLY STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 C/KM MAY EXIST ACROSS SOUTHERN WI TO
SUPPORT STRONGER UPDRAFTS AND PERHAPS HAIL. STRONGER DESTABILIZATION
APPEARS LIKELY TO EVOLVE FROM MS VALLEY EASTWARD TO NORTHERN IL/IND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A CORRIDOR OF SBCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 800-1200
J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND CO-LOCATED WITH STRENGTHENING
UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 35-40KT COULD SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OR MORE ORGANIZED/PERSISTENT STORMS FROM THE IL/WI
BORDER EAST TO NORTHERN IND AND LOWER MI. THIS ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE
INTO FAST-MOVING LINE SEGMENTS AND OR A FEW SUPERCELLS THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. DESPITE A CONTINUATION OF LIFT ALONG THE
ADVANCING FRONT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED HIGH WIND AND SEVERE HAIL
THREATS ARE LIKELY TO WANE BY EVENING AS EASTWARD-MOVING STORMS
ENCOUNTER DIMINISHING INSTABILITY.

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Capping looks to be an issue tomorrow. Big warm nose centered at 875 mb at mid day on the 12z NAM sounding. 4 km NAM is very sparse with coverage until the southeast CWA later in the day.

Sent from my SM-G900V

 

yeah it's pretty pronounced on the 12z NAM fcst soundings west of here at 21z but it's gone at 0z. Won't know much till a morning vis sat loop. 

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SPC chuckin me deep for here tomorrow

RIGHT-MOVING CELLS WILL EXPERIENCE GREATER LEVELS OF SRH AND WITH A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE AS WELL CONDITIONAL ON SUPERCELLULAR STORM MODE.

Weenie run of the day is definitely the 12z SPC WRF. Nice northwest flow supercell across northern IL later in the day with high hourly max updraft helicities.

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Hoping the storms will hold off until after the Michigan game... Although it'd be especially ironic since the marching ban is supposedly doing a weather-themed half time show

Looking at the HRRR, numerous thunderstorms are possible in SE Michigan after 20-21z. CAPE will be 500-1000 J/kg with wind shear of 35-40 knots.   Maybe a better chance for severe weather in Indiana. Dew points are a little higher in Indiana.

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