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September 2014 General Discussion


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Yeah just what we need after a late start to spring, an early killing frost. That sure is good for growers and the economy...

 

10 days out would put us around mid month. The frost would be about 10-20 days early if it happened. My average first frost is Oct 1st -Oct 10th.. So, that would be early. I'm not sure if that would be a killing frost.

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10 days out would put us around mid month. The frost would be about 10-20 days early if it happened. My average first frost is Oct 1st -Oct 10th.. So, that would be early. I'm not sure if that would be a killing frost.

 

Lots of frost around here in farm land don't happen until late October/Early November because of the lake. That early of a frost would be devastating here.

 

First-Frost-in-New-York.jpg

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Wow, that's a really significant "cold" shot for mid-September! Crazy seeing the top 1/2 of MN below -5*C 850mb temps!

 

Hanging around 78* right now with a SE wind.

 

Meanwhile the RPM is showing a thunderstorm complex for SE WI and extreme NE IL for tomorrow morning.

 

CHART24.jpg

 

CHART26.jpg

 

CHART27.jpg

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Wow, that's a really significant "cold" shot for mid-September! Crazy seeing the top 1/2 of MN below -5*C 850mb temps!

 

Hanging around 78* right now with a SE wind.

 

Meanwhile the RPM is showing a thunderstorm complex for SE WI and extreme NE IL for tomorrow morning.

 

CHART24.jpg

 

CHART26.jpg

 

CHART27.jpg

 

 

hi-res NAM has been showing something similar but i expect a more rapid weakening than advertised

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WPC agrees:

 

fill_94qwbg.gif?1409797385069

 

Their 7 day precip map may end up being laughable, it has a small area of 5"+ in SE Wisconsin with a max of around 5.7" for its estimated precip in the next week.  We'll see how it pans out, I think we'll see a couple inches of precip on the average, but they are going full bore on the heavy rain potential.

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Alek was right regarding the N Wisconsin squall line, it is losing its punch considerably already.  Now it looks like what to watch for will be a batch of WAA showers and storms around daybreak for both the Milwaukee and Chicago areas.  It will likely bring a potential for heavy rain and may affect temps later on.

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Have 92 in the point for tomorrow.  00z 4km NAM says 94.  Either way it's looking like a good shot at 90, and will more than likely be it for the year.  So far up to this point have only had 4 90+ days in 2014.  1 in June, 1 in July, and 2 in August.  In contrast we had 4 in May 2012 alone lol.  Had 48 90+ days in 2012, with many of those 100+.  2012 and 2014 are both extremes at both ends of the scale respectively. 

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