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September 2014 General Discussion


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This is the time of year on weather boards when interest starts to grow for the coming winter and what it may hold...but I absolutely LOVE Fall and am so excited its almost here. Sept/Oct have boring weather more often than not, but the crisp air, colorful trees and all the activities Fall brings are something I really look forward to every year.

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This is the time of year on weather boards when interest starts to grow for the coming winter and what it may hold...but I absolutely LOVE Fall and am so excited its almost here. Sept/Oct have boring weather more often than not, but the crisp air, colorful trees and all the activities Fall brings are something I really look forward to every year.

 

Frost.

 

That's the main "first" to watch for in September.

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This year has truly lacked heat and humidity, and now as we head towards September we finally appear to be getting some above normal days. Time for some climo. How normal is 90-degree heat in September at Detroit? In may be more common than you think...of course...its primarily in the months first two weeks.

 

Since 1874, or 140 Septembers, 90F+ heat was observed in 59 of the 140 years, or about 42% of the time. There have been 130 days on record where the temperature rose to 90F or higher in September.

 

Septembers with the most 90F+ days...

1931 - 6 days

1939 - 6 days

1978 - 6 days

1952 - 5 days

1895 - 4 days

1922 - 4 days

1953 - 4 days

1955 - 4 days

1973 - 4 days

2002 - 4 days

 

12 times in September the temp has risen to 97F+

100F - Sept 15, 1939

100F - Sept 2, 1953

100F - Sept 3, 1953

99F - Sept 5, 1954

98F - Sept 14, 1939

98F - Sept 16, 1939

98F - Sept 1, 1953

98F - Sept 8, 1976

98F - Sept 2, 2011

97F - Sept 13, 1874

97F - Sept 7, 1939

97F - Sept 8, 1978

 

Times when Detroit more than doubled their yearly total of 90F heat in September

*In 1912, Detroit saw just 1 day of 90F thru August, then had 3 more in September, for a yearly total of 4.

*In 1922, Detroit saw just 4 days of 90F thru August then had 4 more in September for a yearly total of 8

*In 1960, Detroit saw just 2 days of 90F thru August then had 3 more in September for a yearly total of 5

 

Times when Detroits maximum temp for the year was set in September

1874 - 97F on Sept 13th (*also set earlier in summer)

1899 - 95F on Sept 7th

1912 - 92F on Sept 10th

1915 - 89F on Sept 14th

1927 - 95F on Sept 15th

1939 - 100F on Sept 15th

1943 - 96F on Sept 1st

1953 - 100F on Sept 2nd & 3rd

1954 - 99F on Sept 5th

1960 - 94F on Sept 1st

1978 - 97F on Sept 8th

1985 - 91F on Sept 7th (*also set earlier in summer)

2008 - 93F on Sept 3rd (*also set earlier in summer)

 

On the flip side...the September with the lowest max temp on record was 1876, when the max was only 77F. It was the only September to not have an 80F reading

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Gonna make it tough for golfing.

It would be interesting to see this play out, the last 3 storms we have had here in Metro Detroit there was freeway flooding.If we continued into September with more heavy rains we could be dealing with some overland flood issues, especially if we were to have some sort of tropical system's remnants up this way.

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Latest "guess" by the CFS for September. Inferno and biblical flooding. :lol:

 

I am posting a CFS precipitation plot for September. The difference between this and what was posted by ChicagoWX was this: initial conditions were Aug 18-27.  This also looks very rainy for the Midwest. I am a little concerned--maybe this is too rainy for some areas.

 

post-1182-0-80648300-1409335031_thumb.gi

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Last chance for 90 comes on Thursday, although overnight convection will probably have a say on that.

 

MKX is pretty bullish on the severe weather potential, certainly looks much better than Monday, but I'm kinda worried the front will delay and not push through until the wee hours around 4-6am or something like that.  Even though instability doesn't wane to nothing, it would still be nice to see a prime time severe scenario that hasn't happened much in the last month or two.

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MKX is pretty bullish on the severe weather potential, certainly looks much better than Monday, but I'm kinda worried the front will delay and not push through until the wee hours around 4-6am or something like that.  Even though instability doesn't wane to nothing, it would still be nice to see a prime time severe scenario that hasn't happened much in the last month or two.

The GFS and especially Euro keep instability very high overnight.

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With many hi-res models (the last couple NAM runs, the LSX WRF and the 4KM SPC WRF to name a few) diving a weakening MCS SE overnight tonight into the Western Lakes, I'm thinking that may hold a bigger potential for convection than tomorrow night into early Friday morning, with frontal timing looking less than ideal and forcing waning at that point.

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