downeastnc Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 Figure we will need this as this should be fun to track and most likely the source a few headaches for the NHC.... From the latest HWRF run stolen from the main thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 HWRF led the way last east coast landfall. I have no reason to doubt the solution it is spitting out. An EC landfall is certainly looking more plausible now. Once we get a track nailed down we can worry about intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 On the above map, you can clearly see a front in the Midwest , the tming on that trough is just another factor. If its faster it may be able to pick up whatever 96l is and turn it out to sea. Alot of factors and possibilities with this one, will be fun to track! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 23, 2014 Author Share Posted August 23, 2014 On the above map, you can clearly see a front in the Midwest , the tming on that trough is just another factor. If its faster it may be able to pick up whatever 96l is and turn it out to sea. Alot of factors and possibilities with this one, will be fun to track! For me the benchmark I look for is 75 west once its west of there it has to go east at some point in order to miss the US....but plenty of them have so its by no means a guarantee that it will hit..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 With all the rain we have had this summer, a land falling hurricane would be bad news for our trees and power lines. I for one am hoping it ends up being a fish storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 Looks like almost all options are on the table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 Three distinct possible tracks look to be possible per the 18z GEFS. Tuesday: Friday: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 I'll take the NAVGEM please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 Was just looking at the 12z UKMET and it has the low in the Gulf on Wednesday. So we have a 1000 mile spread with the models I believe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 i think these next 48-72hrs will be key as to where the dominant llc forms. all options are definitely on the table, from south fl to fish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 23, 2014 Author Share Posted August 23, 2014 reading the main thread and looks like the planes have pressure around 1002 MB so this will most likely go straight to TS Christobal later today I bet, looks like this thing could do any number of things still....if that front mid week isn't as strong or slower than progged this thing might come right up the east coast a la Floyd....or go into Florida then into the east GOM Also the local NWS had this little tidbit in the long range part of the AFD WPC AND PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAYTHROUGH FRIDAY WHICH PROVED TO BE VERY TRICKY AS MUCH DEPENDS ONTHE DEVELOPMENT/LOCATION OF A POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 reading the main thread and looks like the planes have pressure around 1002 MB so this will most likely go straight to TS Christobal later today I bet, looks like this thing could do any number of things still....if that front mid week isn't as strong or slower than progged this thing might come right up the east coast a la Floyd....or go into Florida then into the east GOM Also the local NWS had this little tidbit in the long range part of the AFD WPC AND PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WHICH PROVED TO BE VERY TRICKY AS MUCH DEPENDS ON THE DEVELOPMENT/LOCATION OF A POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE. Agreed looks like the low pressure continues to strengthen. From near the center: From the NW quadrant: Looks like the Hurricane Hunters are finding winds of 31 mph in the NW quadrant. TD criteria is 39mph so it is certainly possible and imo likely that this will be named Cristobal at some point today or tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 Most likely scenario still Appears to be a recurve missing the US. There is obviously still a lot this thing could do but again most seem to be taking the fish track as most probable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 12z GFS coming in off the coast of FL with a sped up trough, whereas it took the low pressure through the center of FL on the 06z. Looks like it is correcting somewhat OTS but not sure if it effects the OBX or not. Clearly I am not rooting for that but if this storm gets near the gulf stream watch out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 23, 2014 Author Share Posted August 23, 2014 Most likely scenario still Appears to be a recurve missing the US. There is obviously still a lot this thing could do but again most seem to be taking the fish track as most probable. I dunno the trend overnight has been to the left and depending on where the center forms we could still see a SE hit fairly easily I think, most model initialize the center more NE of where it appears most likely to form AT THIS TIME, of course that could change but I would say the threat to the US is higher now than it was 24 hrs ago based on model trends..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 I dunno the trend overnight has been to the left and depending on where the center forms we could still see a SE hit fairly easily I think, most model initialize the center more NE of where it appears most likely to form AT THIS TIME, of course that could change but I would say the threat to the US is higher now than it was 24 hrs ago based on model trends..... Even if it hits the SE coast (most likely S FL and/or NC as of now for any possible direct hits due to shape of coast & atmospheric setup), it may have challenges to getting to cane status (i. e., despite a climo. favorable position & time of year, very warm SST's, not much dry air, & low enough sheer ). I say this for two reasons: very large size initially would likely prevent too rapid an intensif. process & it is projected to slow down so much near Bahamas that much upwelling would occur. The strongest storms are usually not very slow movers as the slow movement really eats away at warm SST's since it takes so much heat away. For those who want a stronger storm, your better bet would be a not so slow movement IMO. Be that as it may, I'm not predicting its strength right now as this will be tough. Just don't be surprised if it stays a TS despite some pretty favorable factors. Edit: Now, if this were to somehow make it over to the Gulf, that would be a different story as a cane would be favored IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 23, 2014 Author Share Posted August 23, 2014 Even if it hits the SE coast (most likely S FL and/or NC as of now for any possible direct hits due to shape of coast & atmospheric setup), it may have challenges to getting to cane status (i. e., despite a climo. favorable position & time of year, very warm SST's, not much dry air, & low enough sheer ). I say this for two reasons: very large size initially would likely prevent too rapid an intensif. process & it is projected to slow down so much near Bahamas that much upwelling would occur. The strongest storms are usually not very slow movers as the slow movement really eats away at warm SST's since it takes so much heat away. For those who want a stronger storm, your better bet would be a not so slow movement IMO. Be that as it may, I'm not predicting its strength right now as this will be tough. Just don't be surprised if it stays a TS despite some pretty favorable factors. Edit: Now, if this were to somehow make it over to the Gulf, that would be a different story as a cane would be favored IMO. Really it depends, the thing about the water off the SE coast is that the GS constantly resupplies warm water so depending on where it is upwelling may or may not be that big of a deal, my opinion on this is the faster it goes the more likely it is to get into the SE coast as it will get in ahead of the stronger influence of the mid week trough.....but faster to me would also mean perhaps weaker depending on speed. If they do classify this afternoon I am going to love to see what the NHC does with it around day 5 lol.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 12z HWRF is coming in very interesting. Farther west and a good bit inside the 75th. That trough is going to be the question. How strong is it and how quickly does it get to the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 RAH mentions the Invest this afternoon... A LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...AS THIS PART OF THE FORECAST IS LARGELY DEPENDENT ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH INVEST 96L. TRACK MODELS HAVE BEEN QUITE SCATTERED AND LITTLE AGREEMENT AMONG THE GEFS/NAEFS MEMBERS. HOWEVER...ITS WORTH NOTING THAT THE TREND IN THE OPERATIONAL GFS HAS BEEN DEVELOPMENT AND SLOW NORTHWARD MOVEMENT E OF FL DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...THEN MOVING NNE ALONG BUT REMAINING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. THE LATEST ECMWF IS SIMILAR WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT IS FASTER AND ITS TRACK REMAINS FURTHER OFF THE COAST...SHOWING THE LOW MOVING NE AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST ON THURSDAY. ESSENTIALLY BOTH OF THESE SOLUTIONS WOULD KEEP CENTRAL NC FAR ENOUGH WEST OF THE SYSTEM SUCH THAT OUR AREA WOULD REMAIN IN FAIR WEATHER DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. TAKING THAT SYSTEM OUT OF THE PICTURE...OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR WET WEATHER WOULD COME DURING THE WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH EITHER THE NEXT TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES (PER GFS) OR INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE (PER THE ECWMF). IN SUMMARY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE LONG TERM...SO WILL STICK CLOSE TO CLIMO FOR TEMPS AND PERHAPS A LITTLE LOWER THAN CLIMO FOR POPS DURING THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 A tropical system on Labor Day weekend would stink for the beaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 EURO ENS anyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smog strangler Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 EURO ENS anyone posted in the main Atlantic thread. Interesting for Florida as many of the members are into SFL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 taken from main thread... Per HPC afternoon discussion, NHC is going with the more southwest solutions.REGARDING POSSIBLE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AFFECTINGU.S...COORDINATION WITH THE NHC RESULTED IN A BLEND OF FORECASTCONTINUITY WITH THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPETHAT BRINGS POSSIBLE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE SOUTHCAROLINA/NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY DAYS 5-6/THU-FRI BUT REMAINSSLIGHTLY OFFSHORE. THE BLEND RESULTED FROM EXCLUDING THE 00ZECMWF/00Z CANADIAN AND SOME NORTHERN ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROMSTRONG CONSIDERATION DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE THEIR RESPECTIVESHORTWAVE/LONGWAVE PATTERNS FROM THE MODEL CONSENSUS PARTICULARLYTHE ENSEMBLE MEANS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE SOLUTIONS USEDTO BLEND WITH CONTINUITY INCLUDED THE 06Z GEFS MEAN/12Z GFS/SOMESOUTHWESTERN MEMBERS OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 Let the hand-wringing begin... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 23, 2014 Author Share Posted August 23, 2014 Let the hand-wringing begin... Yeah that's a awful big cone of uncertainty at 5 days huh lol...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 And all the media hype. This looks interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 This one really is a toss up right now. Center still has yet to truly form but there is a ton of ongoing convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 So when do we start seeing G IV missions flying over the southwest atlantic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 NOAA Hurricane Hunters found 1002.7mb a little while ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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