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August 21-26 ROF Type Severe


IWXwx

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Impressive wind signature south of Rochelle. 73kts at 5800ft.

pretty big warning out for that portion now....I'm sitting in a good spot for that line....

things have destabilized quite a bit again here after full sunshine for about 45 minutes now....we'll see if it's enough to maintain

Or not...faded away on me

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Looks like the far east side of LAF got rolled (based on radar).  Nothing too dramatic here.

 

...

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT  NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN  642 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014     .TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON     .DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.                ..REMARKS..    0636 PM     HAIL             LAFAYETTE               40.41N  86.87W  08/25/2014  E2.00 INCH       TIPPECANOE         IN   TRAINED SPOTTER                 OUT OF TOWN METEOROLOGIST REPORTED PEA SIZE HAIL WITH               OCCASIONAL 2 INCH HAILSTONES. WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH               CAUSED TREE DAMAGE. HALF OF A TREE DOWN ESTIMATED AT 6               INCHES IN DIAMETER AND LIMBS DOWN ESTIMATED AT 1 INCH IN               DIAMETER.   
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A nice summertime thunderstorm here this evening. An inch of rain in an hour, some pea sized hail, and a few trees down here and there. Also, a pretty good lightning show, with a lot of cloud-to-ground followed by some nice spiderwebs along the back edge.

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In the thread title, what is ROF?

ROF is the sound one makes when you have like 2500 square foot of deck to stain and the forecast has POP 20-30% every single day. If you decide to stain, it rains... if you don't, the sun comes out even though the forecast says mostly cloudy to overcast.  

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1620
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0934 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN IL...NWRN INDIANA...SERN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 261434Z - 261630Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THE REGION THIS MORNING COULD
PRODUCE ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR WIND/HAIL. WHILE CONVECTIVE TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...WW ISSUANCE IS CURRENTLY UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...THE REMNANTS OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION THAT EVOLVED FROM
ERN NEB TO IA HAVE CROSSED THE MS RIVER...PRESENTLY REACHING A LINE
FROM ROCKFORD TO MOLINE. CAPPI DATA AT 9 KM INDICATE SUSTENANCE OF
ONGOING MULTICELL CLUSTERS...WHICH ARE APPROACHING A SFC BOUNDARY
DRAPED FROM THE CHICAGO AREA INTO W-CNTRL IL. THE 12Z ILX RAOB AND
SFC OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE IN PROXIMITY
TO AND ON THE WARM SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY -- E.G. LOWEST-100-MB MEAN
MIXING RATIO AROUND 16 G/KG. DIURNAL HEATING OF THIS MOISTURE WILL
BOOST BUOYANCY...WITH MLCAPE LIKELY REACHING 1500-2500 J/KG DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

ONGOING MULTICELL CLUSTERS WILL APPROACH/CROSS THE BOUNDARY --
INCLUDING THE CHICAGO AREA IN THE 1545-1700Z TIME FRAME -- AND A
RISK FOR INTENSE UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS WILL EXIST. LOT AND MKX VWPS
SAMPLE 25-30 KT WLYS IN THE 1-4-KM LAYER...WHICH WILL BOLSTER
CONVECTIVE MOMENTUM TRANSPORT TO POTENTIALLY YIELD ISOLATED DMGG
WIND GUSTS. ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
HOWEVER...ONLY MODEST MID-LEVEL FLOW/DEEP SHEAR YIELD UNCERTAINTY IN
A MORE ORGANIZED...SUSTAINED SVR RISK. NEVERTHELESS...CONVECTIVE
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

..COHEN/MEAD.. 08/26/2014

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