Birds~69 Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 Man, this trend must stop. I can't picture going through a winter where 3-6" etc is expected and come out with 1-3"or less... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 Looking like we'll save on heating bills the next 3-4 wks., on the bright side I got gas by the office today for $2.85 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 Looking like we'll save on heating bills the next 3-4 wks., on the bright side I got gas by the office today for $2.85 Sounds good to me. Euro long range is a mild november, normal december progressing into a cold and wet winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 Man, this trend must stop. I can't picture going through a winter where 3-6" etc is expected and come out with 1-3"or less... Take it back! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
noctilucent Posted October 11, 2014 Share Posted October 11, 2014 Now 12z GFS cuts qpf in half after all these wet runs Yep. Looking for another underperformer. Radar seems to indicate that we will be on the northern fringe. Again and Again.....Unless something blossoms. But the trend has not been our friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
noctilucent Posted October 11, 2014 Share Posted October 11, 2014 Yep. Looking for another underperformer. Radar seems to indicate that we will be on the northern fringe. Again and Again.....Unless something blossoms. But the trend has not been our friend. Well, I was WRONG! Good. Looks like the trough dug enough to drag that 2nd batch north and pick up the intensity of the low. Standing at just over 1/2 an inch with more coming. So maybe we do make .7 or in that neighborhood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted October 11, 2014 Share Posted October 11, 2014 .5" total, radar estimates are way off. The streak is still alive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted October 11, 2014 Share Posted October 11, 2014 Our live chat on the NWS Mount Holly and twitter pages is starting at 1pm today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted October 11, 2014 Share Posted October 11, 2014 .5" total, radar estimates are way off. The streak is still alive Radar is off by -0.25" here, 32nm from KDIX. Our live chat on the NWS Mount Holly and twitter pages is starting at 1pm today. Cool idea. Seems like a lot of work, though. lol I'm having trouble keeping up with just reading the questions and answers. So well done. I'm trying to think of a question, but yeah, can't come up with anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted October 12, 2014 Share Posted October 12, 2014 Radar is off by -0.25" here, 32nm from KDIX. Cool idea. Seems like a lot of work, though. lol I'm having trouble keeping up with just reading the questions and answers. So well done. I'm trying to think of a question, but yeah, can't come up with anything. Thanks for the feedback. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 .67" from Sat event. Radar estimated totals showed over an inch for my area. It's usually alittle conservative here but there was a lot of noise on the radar going into this event so I suspect that was cause for the discrepancy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 .5" total, radar estimates are way off. The streak is still alive Chances are good you'll get more than an inch between this afternoon and tomorrow. Are you optimistic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Nice stuff moving into Harrisburg...looks like late morning/early afternoon around here. Muggy for Oct this morning.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Nice stuff moving into Harrisburg...looks like late morning/early afternoon around here. Muggy for Oct this morning.. Moving more N/S so I would expect it later this afternoon. Although we are now starting to see storms firing east of Baltimore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Moving more N/S so I would expect it later this afternoon. Although we are now starting to see storms firing east of Baltimore Yeah....really not going E much. Winds seem to be picking up a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 This setup reminds me of a typical TOR potential setup. Sure enough SPC mentions them, but not crazy. ...ERN NC THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC AND SRN NEW ENGLAND... AS OF 12Z THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CNTRL PA SWD INTO CNTRL NC INTO ERN SC. A PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVELY MODIFIED BOUNDARY WAS OBSERVED SURGING EWD JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /NEAR 70F DEWPOINTS/ HAS ADVECTED THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR...AND MID 60S F SFC DEWPOINTS EXIST AS FAR NORTH AS SRN NEW ENGLAND. DESPITE THE MOIST NEAR-SFC LAYER...INSTABILITY REMAINS VERY WEAK PRIMARILY DUE TO LACK OF PHASING BETWEEN THE COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LOW CIRCULATION AND THE MOIST WARM SECTOR WHICH HAS RESULTED IN VERY WEAK /5-6 C/KM/ MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MOREOVER...RAOB DATA INDICATE A DRY LAYER BETWEEN 700 AND 400 MB. THE VERY WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND POSSIBLE MID-LEVEL DRY ENTRAINMENT SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ROBUST UPDRAFTS. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION THIS MORNING HAS BEEN ACCOMPANIED BY VERY LITTLE LIGHTNING. NEVERTHELESS...CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE DEVELOPING THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM ERN NC THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SRN NEW ENGLAND ALONG EWD ADVANCING FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WHILE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WITHIN UPPER LOW CIRCULATION REMAINS IN POST-FRONTAL REGION...DEEP-LAYER WINDS ARE MODERATELY STRONG IN VICINITY OF DEVELOPING LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION BUT ARE GENERALLY PARALLEL TO THE LINE. THE 11Z VWP FROM STERLING VA INDICATES LARGE 0-2 KM HODOGRAPHS AND 45 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF OCCASIONAL ORGANIZED STRUCTURES INCLUDING BOWING SEGMENTS AND MESO-VORTICES. SOME INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITIES ALONG THE LINE MIGHT OCCUR WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAN UNDERGO AT LEAST MODEST WARMING...WITH PRIMARY THREAT BEING SPORADIC DAMAGING WIND AND A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO. HOWEVER...THE VERY MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE EVENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Chances are good you'll get more than an inch between this afternoon and tomorrow. Are you optimistic? The streak will end no doubt in my mind. Dry is done. In other news how about the 6z GFS first snowfall on 10/30 Have received ice/snow on the pumpkins before Halloween twice since my move here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blinkers88 Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 just drove thru some obscenely heavy rain on my way home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 just drove thru some obscenely heavy rain on my way home Getting drilled here now. Precip basically moving south to north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Florida like downpours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 18Z NAM a run of the mill 3/4" for eastern Bucks & most of NJ, radar following suit at the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 The streak will end no doubt in my mind. Dry is done. In other news how about the 6z GFS first snowfall on 10/30 Have received ice/snow on the pumpkins before Halloween twice since my move here. So what was the streak anyway? How long? Or is it more of an abstract streak.... As for snow in October, while it makes for interesting weather, and this has been said before, my preference is to have the best winter weather pattern from early-mid December to mid-late March. Early snows around here somehow don't translate into impressive winters. Yes, I like winters with snow. Last winter was exceptional, but 35" or more imby will work. Short of that, whatever I can get will suffice . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stemwinder Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Florida like downpours Yeah. You're getting hit more, but heavy stuff is moving through here, at least for a bit. Best rain shot in weeks. I hope not too much, however. Whatever helps the foliage. Winter can wait. Too old to like October snow around here. Thanksgiving is soon enough. Then it's weenie time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 So what was the streak anyway? How long? Or is it more of an abstract streak.... As for snow in October, while it makes for interesting weather, and this has been said before, my preference is to have the best winter weather pattern from early-mid December to mid-late March. Early snows around here somehow don't translate into impressive winters. Yes, I like winters with snow. Last winter was exceptional, but 35" or more imby will work. Short of that, whatever I can get will suffice . The streak here is no rain event over .6" since July Don't worry about the October snow just the first GFS fantasy My fantasy winter would be a release of the snow hounds and arctic around thanksgiving and roll it through the middle of February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Decent rain now, but only up to 0.42" on the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Growing spotty and weaker maybe i don't break .6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stemwinder Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Another underperformer? Still a good chance for more overnight. DP in Trenton at 68F. Enjoy it while it lasts. Will freshen things up for the Fall Show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Another underperformer? Still a good chance for more overnight. DP in Trenton at 68F. Enjoy it while it lasts. Will freshen things up for the Fall Show. Silly future radar the media outlets were showing at 6 had the area getting pounded at this time. Was just moving some furniture and the tropical dews and in house temperature of 73F this time of night in October are off the charts About to hit the AC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 ran 3 miles when I got home from work at 6:00, what a pleasure that was in this soup, thought about the AC briefly but a cool shower did the trick had couple a streamers go through this evening with good rains, approaching 0.75", have a shot at an inch before all is said & done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 1.25" total, can't complain, didn't think I'd get that much looking at the radar late yesterday afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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