KamuSnow Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 So Ray, which is worse, a winter like you're experiencing in Elko with the torch, or one like many over here are experiencing, with the cold in place but getting fringed and Lucied about every way imaginable? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 So Ray, which is worse, a winter like you're experiencing in Elko with the torch, or one like many over here are experiencing, with the cold in place but getting fringed and Lucied about every way imaginable? Hard to say. If you like cold then surely, cold weather is desireable over warm. I have found this winter unusually relaxing from a forecast standpoint (and also have enjoyed how it has verified and then exceeded all of my expectations for a warm/dry pattern here lol). If I had forecast cold and wet, I'd be much more unhappy. Which, I suppose, is part of why a lot of snow lovers back there are pretty unhappy right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Hard to say. If you like cold then surely, cold weather is desireable over warm. I have found this winter unusually relaxing from a forecast standpoint (and also have enjoyed how it has verified and then exceeded all of my expectations for a warm/dry pattern here lol). If I had forecast cold and wet, I'd be much more unhappy. Which, I suppose, is part of why a lot of snow lovers back there are pretty unhappy right now. I think the pre-season forecasts had something to do with the expectations, but even with letting go of that, on a more "micro scale" I don't recall having so many near misses in this area. I'll take the cold regardless, I like the balance of the seasons. For a met who says he isn't a "long ranger", good job on the forecast of warm and dry for Elko! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I think the pre-season forecasts had something to do with the expectations, but even with letting go of that, on a more "micro scale" I don't recall having so many near misses in this area. I'll take the cold regardless, I like the balance of the seasons. For a met who says he isn't a "long ranger", good job on the forecast of warm and dry for Elko! Thanks... even novices can get lucky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 11, 2015 Author Share Posted February 11, 2015 Snow lovers looking at the 6Z GFS probably want to put a bullet in their head... hardly anything Thursday, hardly anything Saturday, and then it rains Tuesday. and then 12z will show... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Thanks... even novices can get lucky Ray, I looked at the forcast discussion for Elko on the NWS site and there are no credits given (hoping I would see your name). What, are they computer generated? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Snowman on his death bed. Can he survive until the cold blast arrives?? Hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Ray, I looked at the forcast discussion for Elko on the NWS site and there are no credits given (hoping I would see your name). What, are they computer generated? No, but out west, we just give initials or forecaster numbers. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/LKN/AFDLKN " 170 FXUS65 KLKN 111147AFDLKNAREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV347 AM PST WED FEB 11 2015.SYNOPSIS...A WARMING TREND BEGINS TODAY...WITH RECORD WARMTH IN MOST VALLEY AREAS ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURE BEGIN TO COOL THISWEEKEND...THOUGH STILL ABOVE NORMAL. INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAYINTO MONDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSSNORTHEASTERN NEVADA. &&.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROMTHE SOUTHWEST WILL KICK OFF A WARMING TREND THAT WILL RESULT INAFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMBING 5-7 DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGHFRIDAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FORMOST LOCATIONS...WHICH IS NOT EXPECTED TO BREAK ANY RECORDS.THURSDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE LOW 60S FOR MOST VALLEYAREAS...WHICH WILL BE 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH RECORD ORNEAR-RECORD WARMTH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. AS HIGHSFRIDAY CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S LOOK FOR MANY RECORD HIGHSTO BE BROKEN. AT THIS TIME FORECASTING ELKOS HIGH FRIDAY TO BEBROKEN BY 6 DEGREES WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 67..LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS OUR WARM SPELL COMING TO AN END BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY THE STRONG RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. HOWEVER...ENOUGH WARM AIR WILL REMAIN SUCH THAT RECORD HIGHS ARE STILL FORECAST AT THE ELKO...ELY AND EUREKA AIRPORTS. TONOPAH AND WINNEMUCCA WILL BOTH BE CLOSE SO POTENTIAL FOR RECORDS EXISTS AT BOTH OF THOSE LOCATIONS AS WELL. THE TROUGH IS WEAK SO CLOUDS WITH IT SHOULD BE LIMITED AND NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.ANOTHER...STRONGER...TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEVADA ON SUNDAY BRINGING A MORE NOTICEABLE COOLING TREND AND PUTTING AN END TO THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES. THIS SYSTEM MAY ALSO BRING SOME WIND...BUT IS STILL UNLIKELY TO BRING PRECIPITATION AS IT WILL BE RATHER MOISTURE STARVED AS IT SLIDES SOUTHWEST AROUND A RIDGE WHICH WILL HAVE SET UP OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MONDAY THE FORECAST HAS CHANGED QUITE A BIT AND MAY CHANGE FURTHER. BOTH GFS AND EURO SHOW FAST NORTHWEST FLOW AND A FAIRLY STRONG DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTHEAST. THIS MAY FINALLY BE ENOUGH TO BRING SOME PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE REGION...THOUGH THE EURO IS NOTABLY FURTHER SOUTHWEST WITH THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM THAN THE GFS. EITHER WAY...TEMPS SHOULD COOL SIGNIFICANTLY...AND WHILE FORECAST HIGHS WERE LOWERED QUITE A BIT...THEY MAY STILL BE TOO WARM. THIS COULD WELL BE THE FIRST CHANCE FOR MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS TO SEE SNOW IN THIS UNSEASONABLY TOASTY APRIL...I MEAN FEBRUARY. BY TUESDAY THE GFS STARTS TO PUSH THE RIDGE EAST AND SLIDE THE TROUGH AWAY FROM US...THOUGH THE EURO LETS IT LINGER. STILL HAVE TEMPS MUCH LOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH MAY STILL BE TOO WARM. HOWEVER...ODDS OF ADDITIONAL PRECIP ON TUESDAY APPEAR LOW. RCM&&.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR CIGS AND VIS NEXT 24 HOURS. ONLY FLY IS POSSIBLE PATCHY FOG FROM LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM MONDAY'S SHOWERS. ODDS ARE LOW BUT MOST LIKELY IMPACT WOULD BE KEKO. RCM &&.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. &&$$96/93/93 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Loved the use of the word Toasty in the AFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 No, but out west, we just give initials or forecaster numbers. Good idea, helps people from placing blame when forcasts bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Wish I had Rays warmth or 2011 right now, lost all interest in reaching climo normal season snow too. Keep thinking about the cold without snow from presidents day to easter last year this is feeling the same only it started earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 12Z gfs snow maps show 1 inch of snow through 120 hours. That means brutal cold with flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 12Z gfs snow maps show 1 inch of snow through 120 hours. That means brutal cold with flurries Warms up just in time for a nice 35 degree rainstorm though The worst part about this winter is that the NAO will probably finally go negative in late march, giving us a chance of cold rain all through the spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Absolutely worthless eurowx map deposits 24-30" imby through hour 204 I will follow up in 204 hours let's see if half of that verifies Ground truth for the stinking Euro = .2" Not even an inch Make it stop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 11, 2015 Author Share Posted February 11, 2015 enjoy the cold, thats about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 enjoy the cold, thats about it. This winter sucks I am pulling for nuclear war and a quick warm up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Boston, Monday: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Boston, Monday: Boston next Wednesday it is over their heads all deer dead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Just when you thought it couldn't get any worse and had to get better this winter finds all new ways to suck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Just when you thought it couldn't get any worse and had to get better this winter finds all new ways to suck Did Ji hack your account? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lady Di Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Seems to me the pattern has won. It was interesting to see all the dismay on the models, from medium range all the way to an event\non event. I think all of you have done well accepting it as hard as it is. I was hoping Sat would show better for us today. Saw the Norlun word used in the AFD today, maybe someone will get under that thing. It wont be imby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 NYC thread thinks the weekend storm will continue to trend south. Because that's what has happened all year right guys? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Just when you thought it couldn't get any worse and had to get better this winter finds all new ways to suck Beats endless rain and mud IMO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Beats endless rain and mud IMO... no way, 50-60 degrees and endless rain storms > below freezing for a month and getting practically no snow out of it. Cold sucks if it doesn't snow. Best comparison would be having days and days of hot and humid weather in the summer then having a cold front come through with no thunderstorms. Temperature extremes just don't do it for me. Everyone's entitled to an opinion though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 no way, 50-60 degrees and endless rain storms > below freezing for a month and getting practically no snow out of it. Cold sucks if it doesn't snow. Best comparison would be having days and days of hot and humid weather in the summer then having a cold front come through with no thunderstorms. Temperature extremes just don't do it for me. Everyone's entitled to an opinion though That would of sucked for me today...had a funeral to attend and the cemetery would have been a mud pit. Perfect weather actually w/temps in the 30's and light wind. Kinda looking forward to the cold/wind coming. Yeah...some/little snow would be nice but I'm starting to accept getting screwed and not getting as pissed. I still have some decent snow and piles having around.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yak Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I was admittedly bored by these constant mini-events so I had to look elsewhere for entertainment: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-71.29016&lat=44.27270#.VNvrI-8tCUk I have to wonder what -22F with 80 mph wind gusts would feel like Friday night not to mention days of "strong and damaging winds" with temps below 0. Must be a fun place to hang out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Here's hoping for a trend! It's the NAM, toss it. It's 6z, 18z, toss it. The Ukie's overrated. The GGEM is always warm. The Euro is always right. It's the GFS, what do you expect? The 0z runs tonight are really important. If not them, then for sure 12z tomorrow. It's 96/72/48/24 hours out, PLENTY of time to change for the better. We're WAY out of it's range, toss it. Did you see the low shift NW on radar? It's backbuilding! It's going to fill in, don't worry. Lol i had to share this from NYC thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Here's hoping for a trend! It's the NAM, toss it. It's 6z, 18z, toss it. The Ukie's overrated. The GGEM is always warm. The Euro is always right. It's the GFS, what do you expect? The 0z runs tonight are really important. If not them, then for sure 12z tomorrow. It's 96/72/48/24 hours out, PLENTY of time to change for the better. We're WAY out of it's range, toss it. Did you see the low shift NW on radar? It's backbuilding! It's going to fill in, don't worry. Lol i had to share this from NYC thread. This is really great. I do spend a good amount of time on that forum mostly because it's the most active but my god, as you alluded to some of the banter gives me a headache. And ALL of those^^ have been played out so much. On another note, I was surprised to see nobody is giving any hope to the early-mid week storm. I understand with the way winter has gone but I'm liking this threat. It's not a northern stream system that needs to dig south and develop quick to throw snow back our way. It's a southern stream system that is loaded with GOM moisture with very cold air departing. At least good for a nice front end dump and has trended colder today. NW of 95 looks real good. Still way too much time for this to go wrong but I'm optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 This is really great. I do spend a good amount of time on that forum mostly because it's the most active but my god, as you alluded to some of the banter gives me a headache. And ALL of those^^ have been played out so much. On another note, I was surprised to see nobody is giving any hope to the early-mid week storm. I understand with the way winter has gone but I'm liking this threat. It's not a northern stream system that needs to dig south and develop quick to throw snow back our way. It's a southern stream system that is loaded with GOM moisture with very cold air departing. At least good for a nice front end dump and has trended colder today. NW of 95 looks real good. Still way too much time for this to go wrong but I'm optimistic. I've been neglectful and figured someone else would start a thread for it, but since no one has, I just did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I've been neglectful and figured someone else would start a thread for it, but since no one has, I just did. Good deal, lets bring this one home! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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