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E PA/NJ/DE/Okle: Banter/Non Storm OBS thread


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I'd swear I saw them once in Ewing, many moons ago (at night).

 

I think its very possible.

I did some research last winter after seeing some almost dog-like tracks in the snow on the driveway, and having a friend tell me that coyotes are in the area. The research bore it out.

I took some pictures of the tracks with a tape measure next to them, and compared them to pics online and they matched up very well.

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This society - and particularly this Northeast area - has become so populated that an enormous amount of "interconnectivity" and complexity is required to make it viable.  The pressure on forecasters to produce "something" that allows the "decision-makers" referred to above to make a call has become much more intense.  Every action produces a cascade of effects, and there are desperate calls for "enough time" to make and implement decisions.  Calling off school is no longer a simple act.  Employers now hire so many part-time people that they think in terms of $$$ on whether people start coming to work or not. Getting people off the roads is nearly impossible unless apocalyptic language is used.  Airlines have no slack in their schedules. 

 

So the NWS doesn't really have the option of saying '"6" to 24" and we don't really know.'  People in positions of power really need them to give a "best forecast."   The rest of us have to understand that this necessity is going to make forecasts bust sometimes.  If the NWS had had the luxury of waiting another 6 hours, well maybe the "final forecast," would have been different.  If the lead time needed for weather-related decisions is gradually increasing, as I think it is, then busts will be more frequent

 

That said, I'll bet the word "historic" never crosses their lips again in advance of any forecast for the next 5 years!

 

And the NWS can actually take comfort in the fact all these private, for-fee companies that have popped up to give individual institutions "better forecasts" busted just as badly, if not worse (I saw a couple of these private forecasts). If I were an institution, I'd rethink why I was paying for a forecast that was basically the same as I could get from the NWS.

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Since our subforum really doesn't have a local off topic, I'll put this here. Super Bowl preview ad for the cold hearted bas#$ards

 

https://tv.yahoo.com/news/godaddy-pulls-super-bowl-xlix-puppy-ad-after-backlash--petition-020749766.html

 

It's a bit cold hearted but doesn't bother me...little twisted but Go Daddy likes to push the envelope.

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This society - and particularly this Northeast area - has become so populated that an enormous amount of "interconnectivity" and complexity is required to make it viable.  The pressure on forecasters to produce "something" that allows the "decision-makers" referred to above to make a call has become much more intense.  Every action produces a cascade of effects, and there are desperate calls for "enough time" to make and implement decisions.  Calling off school is no longer a simple act.  Employers now hire so many part-time people that they think in terms of $$$ on whether people start coming to work or not. Getting people off the roads is nearly impossible unless apocalyptic language is used.  Airlines have no slack in their schedules. 

 

So the NWS doesn't really have the option of saying '"6" to 24" and we don't really know.'  People in positions of power really need them to give a "best forecast."   The rest of us have to understand that this necessity is going to make forecasts bust sometimes.  If the NWS had had the luxury of waiting another 6 hours, well maybe the "final forecast," would have been different.  If the lead time needed for weather-related decisions is gradually increasing, as I think it is, then busts will be more frequent

 

That said, I'll bet the word "historic" never crosses their lips again in advance of any forecast for the next 5 years!

 

And the NWS can actually take comfort in the fact all these private, for-fee companies that have popped up to give individual institutions "better forecasts" busted just as badly, if not worse (I saw a couple of these private forecasts). If I were an institution, I'd rethink why I was paying for a forecast that was basically the same as I could get from the NWS.

 

I guarantee we see the term 'historic' being used again. Just wait until we get hit with another hundred year flood this spring. 

 

The Northeast is actually very stagnant when it comes to population growth. 

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I hate snow melt, 36F cold is dragging it's arse to get in here this has been common this winter. Lost 1" to melt today

There were still some icy spots on my driveway and sidewalk that are being taken care of by the sun with temps above freezing, and plus I didn't have to clear off my car before I go out later today (the sun took care of the coating of snow on it).  So it's OK with me.  Plus, I'm not losing a lot of snow on the lawn and don't look to lose any more before adding to it Sunday night and Monday.

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