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E PA/NJ/DE/Okle: Banter/Non Storm OBS thread


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Worst winter I can remember in a long time. There have been some duds but this one takes the cake for me.

With that said I am punting on winter 2014-15. There just is no way we can muster a substantial snowstorm in this pattern. We need an Archambeault event ideally to flip the nao into a better phase. We have had perfect tracks and still cant get a storm to produce. The sick part is that I said this 6 weeks ago....the fantasy storm is a mirage this winter and always 7 days away. The writing is on the wall.

If there are any threats you bet I will be here but with nothing on the horizon, im out for now.

Peace

Jma has a monster blizzard next weekend....HECS potential.

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Worst winter I can remember in a long time. There have been some duds but this one takes the cake for me.

With that said I am punting on winter 2014-15. There just is no way we can muster a substantial snowstorm in this pattern. We need an Archambeault event ideally to flip the nao into a better phase. We have had perfect tracks and still cant get a storm to produce. The sick part is that I said this 6 weeks ago....the fantasy storm is a mirage this winter and always 7 days away. The writing is on the wall.

If there are any threats you bet I will be here but with nothing on the horizon, im out for now.

Peace

A -4F January with <5" snow would be hateful

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Worst winter I can remember in a long time. There have been some duds but this one takes the cake for me.

With that said I am punting on winter 2014-15. There just is no way we can muster a substantial snowstorm in this pattern. We need an Archambeault event ideally to flip the nao into a better phase. We have had perfect tracks and still cant get a storm to produce. The sick part is that I said this 6 weeks ago....the fantasy storm is a mirage this winter and always 7 days away. The writing is on the wall.

If there are any threats you bet I will be here but with nothing on the horizon, im out for now.

Peace

 

    :blahblah:   yeah you have to go back all the way to 2011-12 to find a morbid winter

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looking for a few inches of snow late tomorrow up north.

liked the look of the 12z gfs

 

Best.

 

yeah, this could be an interesting setup.  not sure what to expect.  still a couple inches of snowpack up here.  

 

and ralphie cakes,  even GFS is at-least giving hints of something big for next weekend.    (season not over yet) 

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Worst winter I can remember in a long time. There have been some duds but this one takes the cake for me.

With that said I am punting on winter 2014-15. There just is no way we can muster a substantial snowstorm in this pattern. We need an Archambeault event ideally to flip the nao into a better phase. We have had perfect tracks and still cant get a storm to produce. The sick part is that I said this 6 weeks ago....the fantasy storm is a mirage this winter and always 7 days away. The writing is on the wall.

If there are any threats you bet I will be here but with nothing on the horizon, im out for now.

Peace

478.jpg

Moe: You'll be back!!! And you, And you (to Barney). And you.

 

479.jpg

 

Barney: Of course I'll be back, if you didn't close I'd never leave!

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FWIW, i think the storm tomorrow might start out as a period of sleet/ZR NW of Philly.   Could be pretty slick in the early morning tomorrow. 

It could happen as far southeast as TTN.  Not a guarantee, but the NAM keeps the low levels cold.  I'll make a thread for it.

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Mostly Clear in NW Chesco

Temp 27.0

RH 54%

DP 12.6

 

High Today was 29.9 with a low of 13.6

This was the 11th sub-32 day

So far through today our average temp for January is 24.8 which is 6.3 degrees below average for January - if the month ended today this would be the 11th coldest January in the 122 year history here in Chester County

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Worst winter I can remember in a long time. There have been some duds but this one takes the cake for me.

With that said I am punting on winter 2014-15. There just is no way we can muster a substantial snowstorm in this pattern. We need an Archambeault event ideally to flip the nao into a better phase. We have had perfect tracks and still cant get a storm to produce. The sick part is that I said this 6 weeks ago....the fantasy storm is a mirage this winter and always 7 days away. The writing is on the wall.

If there are any threats you bet I will be here but with nothing on the horizon, im out for now.

Peace

 

A bad winter builds character. 

I still expect snow and possibly big storms for the next 7-10 weeks.( in my area)

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i will never understand how people pull the plug on winter when we haven't hit our snowiest month yet.   Obviously some of the forecasts for a robust winter are going to bust, but pulling the plug completely??  Plus, there are some favorable signs for a pattern change as we head into February.    I have always felt that people put too much weight on long-term winter forecasts, there are obviously some factors that you can look to in terms of giving you a rough idea, but it is a very inexact science and there is a lot of guesswork.

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0z GFS makes me want to hurl, cold and sometimes witches teet cold for next two weeks and nothing but traces. Nice warming in western Canada though out towards February so maybe early spring if the gods be merciful.

 

Yeah i know it will be different in 6 hours...different in a bad way

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0z GFS makes me want to hurl, cold and sometimes witches teet cold for next two weeks and nothing but traces. Nice warming in western Canada though out towards February so maybe early spring if the gods be merciful.

 

Yeah i know it will be different in 6 hours...different in a bad way

 

Only reason I am slightly intrigued by this and posted it is because the NAVGEM is usually progressive and flat so for it to be showing this sort of solution should raise an eyebrow or two:

 

navgem_mslp_pcpn_us_22.png

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Only reason I am slightly intrigued by this and posted it is because the NAVGEM is usually progressive and flat so for it to be showing this sort of solution should raise an eyebrow or two:

 

navgem_mslp_pcpn_us_22.png

I would give your point credence if there weren't so many S/W's floating around between now and then for that model to confuse itself.  Doesn't take much for a model w/ a progressive bias to miss the timing of one the s/w passing through to show something like that.  What I am trying to say is if there weren't so many variables on the table to "confuse itself" with the timing and such then I'd buy into the thinking you mention.   There is still potential for this time period b/c all the models have something there and some of the ensembles still have a few members with an event, but time is quickly running out for this one. 

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