Harbourton Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Some of the GFS ensembles are hinting at a storm next Monday. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_12z/ensprsloopmref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 February will be rocking though once we establish some blocking! Don over in the general forum would disagree with you at this point..... Just about time to punt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Ok what looked like a significant warm period running through MLK for a week or so has morphed into nothing more than a couple mild days between cold shots of say +5. But the pattern is still an awful one as indicated by todays ECM with 2 more cold rains around days 5 and 8 This winter is getting old fast. Much rather have a +2F January with 10" snow over -2F with cold rain and 2-3" yuck This early January pattern has absolutely sucked, really winter overall has really sucked for the lower burbs/central jersey, save for that mild week in decemeber. Cold as all hell but dry then quick 1-2 day warm up for the rain storm then back to cold and dry. If it isn't going to snow then bring on the torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Cold as all hell but dry then quick 1-2 day warm up for the rain storm then back to cold and dry. ahhhh....reminds me of the winters of my youth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 This winter the patterns are locked into bad ones, best hope is some rogue or thread the needle mecs/hecs in late Jan or Feb for redemption like 2006 or 1983 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Banter has turned into the winter rant Hope we cash in soon but yea, pitchers and catchers report in about 4 weeks. Still plenty of time for everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Banter has turned into the winter rant Hope we cash in soon but yea, pitchers and catchers report in about 4 weeks. Still plenty of time for everyone I too experience the frustration/disappointment over the lack of snow, and this winter has been challenging so far. We get those around here. But I'm going down with the ship. The next accumulating snowfall we get, significant or otherwise, I'm all in. I can wait until mid to late March, even April, for spring. March will have enough spring-like days to get outside and do stuff. Last March we started our spring cleanup here while 2/3 of the lawn still had snow on it. And lest we forget, with the talk of spring training, this is from last year (for the Phillies): "The first workout for pitchers and catchers is scheduled on Thursday, February 13, 2014". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 I too experience the frustration/disappointment over the lack of snow, and this winter has been challenging so far. I'm not a snow lover per se, but can you imagine what it was like for us northern folks in those years that you guys were getting slammed while we were getting fringed with 1-2 inch type events? At least this winter we're pretty much all on the same playing field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 And lest we forget, with the talk of spring training, this is from last year (for the Phillies): "The first workout for pitchers and catchers is scheduled on Thursday, February 13, 2014". Unfortunately the Phillies season is as bleak as our snow prospects... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 I'm not a snow lover per se, but can you imagine what it was like for us northern folks in those years that you guys were getting slammed while we were getting fringed with 1-2 inch type events? At least this winter we're pretty much all on the same playing field. Yes I can imagine, it sucks, lol. A second hand "snow high" only goes so far. The distribution of snow(or lack thereof) this winter has very fair and equitable to this point, as far as I know anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Yes I can imagine, it sucks, lol. A second hand "snow high" only goes so far. The distribution of snow(or lack thereof) this winter has very fair and equitable to this point, as far as I know anyway. Not entirely true for all. I hover around climo imby to date Yet the cold rains and day 7 digital snows have worn on me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Unfortunately the Phillies season is as bleak as our snow prospects... lol...ours may get better, not sure about the Phillies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 1st call for Sunday Night Monday storm - 5 inches of white gold for my backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Unfortunately the Phillies season is as bleak as our snow prospects... Hopefully we have a snowy April so there is something interesting to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Not entirely true for all. I hover around climo imby to date Yet the cold rains and day 7 digital snows have worn on me. I knew you and the Chester County peeps have been doing pretty well, all things considered. Here I'm not that far behind climo actually, estimating about 2 or 3" behind. But we've had to work hard for our snow this winter. Biggest snow here so far was the clipper last week, 2.4". Btw, is there a way to get "normal" snowfall for a specific geographic location? I just used normal for PHL (which for season to date would be 6.0") and added 50%, based on experience in NW and Western Delaware County. It might be less, like PHL plus 40%, I'm not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 I knew you and the Chester County peeps have been doing pretty well, all things considered. Here I'm not that far behind climo actually, estimating about 2 or 3" behind. But we've had to work hard for our snow this winter. Biggest snow here so far was the clipper last week, 2.4". Btw, is there a way to get "normal" snowfall for a specific geographic location? I just used normal for PHL (which for season to date would be 6.0") and added 50%, based on experience in NW and Western Delaware County. It might be less, like PHL plus 40%, I'm not sure. If anybody would know it would be Ray, haven't yet seen a source of snow norms for regions outside the major cities. Always reasoned normal for my area is 30-32" and once saw it listed from a semi dependable source as 31" from that i deduce 1" 5" 10" 10" 4" 1" for smoothed out averages Nov-April Breaking it down further one familiar with our winters knows first half January averages more snow than second half so i get 4" first half 6" for the second. Ergo i get my 10" normal to date and to take it further just doesn't sound right that I am having a 20% above normal snowfall winter but it's true clearly spoiled from the new snowy climate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Can't get over the new GFS and it's first 12z run. Am I dreaming or is that the best fantasy model run this winter? Let's hope not a one run glitch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Yeah....about that January Thaw... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Can't get over the new GFS and it's first 12z run. Am I dreaming or is that the best fantasy model run this winter? Let's hope not a one run glitch 18z wasn't too shabby.....watch early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Using 31 year average for Chester County above 650 ft (combination of Coatesville 2 SW and East Nantmeal) Average Snowfall for Chester County thru today is 10.5" so far this year we are at 13.0" Normal average snowfall is 35.4" I knew you and the Chester County peeps have been doing pretty well, all things considered. Here I'm not that far behind climo actually, estimating about 2 or 3" behind. But we've had to work hard for our snow this winter. Biggest snow here so far was the clipper last week, 2.4". Btw, is there a way to get "normal" snowfall for a specific geographic location? I just used normal for PHL (which for season to date would be 6.0") and added 50%, based on experience in NW and Western Delaware County. It might be less, like PHL plus 40%, I'm not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Using 31 year average for Chester County above 650 ft (combination of Coatesville 2 SW and East Nantmeal) Average Snowfall for Chester County thru today is 10.5" so far this year we are at 13.0" Normal average snowfall is 35.4" A whole different story in the city -- 1.6" against a normal of 6.0". Over 20" as of this date last year. I'm at 10.3", so right at normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Yep - this is much more typical of the winters of my youth in NE Philly....always seemed to be very little snow in the city before February with lots of little mix events with more N and W before then A whole different story in the city -- 1.6" against a normal of 6.0". Over 20" as of this date last year. I'm at 10.3", so right at normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Firefox browser screwy with only this website. Page up/down bar moves erratic with mouse like it needs to be oiled, keeps getting stuck before bottom of page. However android chrome browser constantly crashing is no longer a problem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 18z gfs looks ominous for late next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 As mentioned in the NY forum, the "new" GFS has lost miserably to the Euro regarding the Sunday storm. GFS caved at 12Z with heavy rain at the shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 that was another decent, heavy squall about an hour ago. 0 to 1/4 mile vis again. (mostly from clouds / fog) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 that was another decent, heavy squall about an hour ago. 0 to 1/4 mile vis again. (mostly from clouds / fog) We've had flurries and a few squalls here as well. Nothing as far as accumulation though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Got some flurries drifting by at the moment ... one of the bigger snow events of this winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Currently have a wicked snow squall here in Hopewell, NJ Mercer County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Worst winter I can remember in a long time. There have been some duds but this one takes the cake for me. With that said I am punting on winter 2014-15. There just is no way we can muster a substantial snowstorm in this pattern. We need an Archambeault event ideally to flip the nao into a better phase. We have had perfect tracks and still cant get a storm to produce. The sick part is that I said this 6 weeks ago....the fantasy storm is a mirage this winter and always 7 days away. The writing is on the wall. If there are any threats you bet I will be here but with nothing on the horizon, im out for now. Peace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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