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E PA/NJ/DE/Okle: Banter/Non Storm OBS thread


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2005 and 2000 come to mind as dud winters which turned active.  Hope should not be lost yet.

 

However, if you wanted a blockbuster... yeah, hope for that should be dwindling quickly.

2006 and 2007 did good come February

Has to get better soon, even the wretched hot Jan 2006 gave me 2" snow

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6z GFS and Para have a quick 1-3/ 2-4" before the change over tomorrow in most of Pa. Especially NW of 95 and a little more in central/northern Pa. Sure to get washed right away but it's still something. Then after the cutter we are in the freezer, but of course mainly dry as the clipper tracks way north... 

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Next week is looking impressively cold, more so than any of the "bust" winters offered since 2000. Lowered my expectations however to normal snow amounts and hope for the best here on out. With failed blocking a 2009 like finish to the last two months of winter wouldn't be too bad.

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Weather World had a stat about the most days in PA not getting above freezing in 2014, I think it was State College, since 1978.

 

Impressive especially considering the mild December.

Yep - see my climate post a very cold year in 2014....all despite climate change/GW etc. - that said JB and the WB team continue to toll the bell that the next 3 of 5 years should be much warmer than normal....that should give plenty of ammo to those who believe in GW. All the young folks who don't quite understand what normal for this area will be cryin the blues as we get back to what a good normal Northern Mid-Atlantic winter looks like!

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Now chance rules the roost for the next two months of winter. Failed -AO and -NAO thus far and unfavorable MJO leaves us with needing to make the most of opportunity when we have the cold. The next 7 days is bringing an impressive -10F departure for January. We have a clipper and a storm chance with overrunning next Sunday let's see how we do. Separate the great and very good winters into column A and the clunkers in column B and the majority end up somewhere in between. Some winters such as 2005 you get lucky with the late January super clipper and then there's 2006 and 1983, winters that would have ended up with snow totals only in the teens. 

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Now chance rules the roost for the next two months of winter. Failed -AO and -NAO thus far and unfavorable MJO leaves us with needing to make the most of opportunity when we have the cold. The next 7 days is bringing an impressive -10F departure for January. We have a clipper and a storm chance with overrunning next Sunday let's see how we do. Separate the great and very good winters into column A and the clunkers in column B and the majority end up somewhere in between. Some winters such as 2005 you get lucky with the late January super clipper and then there's 2006 and 1983, winters that would have ended up with snow totals only in the teens. 

 

Over the last 20 years (1994-95 through 2013-14) there have been 6 in column A (30" or more at PHL), 9 in column B (less than 14"), and 5 in between. Trend has been more "feast or famine" it seems, although this winter still has a decent chance at winding up as an in between.

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