Harbourton Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Any hope of a warning criteria snow storm is quickly fading into the super long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Any hope of a warning criteria snow storm is quickly fading into the super long range. Yea the Para just took a step towards the old GFS, granted it's 18z. Still a possible small front end thump on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Awful euro run, fat lady is warming up the vocal cords Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 This winter is shot. Honestly looking at weeklies and some other lr guidance, maybe we can eek out a 7-10 day window of wintry weather towards the end of january or into feb. Otherwise the writing is on the wall this winter. See you guys next season....or if a threat comes along before this one ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 I know the upcoming event is still 5-6 days away but as of now it looks to be a cutter and not suppressed. If my recollection is correct this will be the third time in a row the Euro has been schooled by the GFS. Could end up being a problem for the 'pay for Euro' sites. I subscribed to Eurowx to get the 6 to 12 hour intervals but so far it has been a waste of money. I do like their more realistic snowfall maps however. Anyone got some thoughts on why the Euro's performance seems so poor this winter? After Sandy I thought the Euro was God. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 I know the upcoming event is still 5-6 days away but as of now it looks to be a cutter and not suppressed. If my recollection is correct this will be the third time in a row the Euro has been schooled by the GFS. Could end up being a problem for the 'pay for Euro' sites. I subscribed to Eurowx to get the 6 to 12 hour intervals but so far it has been a waste of money. I do like their more realistic snowfall maps however. Anyone got some thoughts on why the Euro's performance seems so poor this winter? After Sandy I thought the Euro was God. I think that the Euro has had troubles when we get a pattern (EL Nino induced?) that drops energy into the SW CONUS and whether to eject it or close it off. As for the upcoming storm it seems the globals may have underestimated the strength of the SE ridge to affect the 500mb flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Some nice squalls and flurries through the morning reminding us what winter in the Poconos looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Atari GFS is going to win again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 You know things have turned bad when you start figuring a 2013 type winter would be preferable to this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 12/30 is still too early to throw in the towel on winter ... but it may not be too early to go looking for the towel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Im giving it 2 more weeks....if nothing changed and nothing on the horizon then the towel is being thrown in. For now I will monitor any threats but there just aren't any on the horizon. There is a clipper popping up on guidance for next week but it appears it gets shredded apart in the flow with little to no fanfare which makes sense in this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 I suspect that the annual January thaw may come about. However, there is too much left in winter to cash in the chips. Last two weeks of January and first two weeks of February are usually the bottom of winter around here. Until then I'll keep watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Forsythia says "what winter?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Forsythia says "what winter?" Wow exactly what I posted on my facebook weather page!! These guys pop very easily when there is warm weather of any consequence. However this week's cold should stop them before the next warm up comes in over the weekend at least down here in Southeastern PA... Currently 28 in my back yard no wind... almost feels like air conditioning feels great out there cool crisp clear air! I do want my snow too though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Happy New Year to the Philly crew, up at Lake Harmony this week, at least it's cold & even a couple flizzards this morning Boulder field just outside the development & snow guns blazing tonight at Big Boulder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 How crazy is this winter? GFS now trying to make the clipper after the cutter an inland runner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 How crazy is this winter? GFS now trying to make the clipper after the cutter an inland runner. Won't really be able to get a handle on it until after this present cutter, the one the para and euro had MECS for us a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Temps falling like a rock. 21.3F....clear skies....no wind w/hours of cooling to go. Further burbs must be in the mid teens if not lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 0z Euro was awesome.....awesome on the heating bills! Near to slightly below avg temps but dry (aside from the cutter this weekend) for a few days then signs of the january thaw coming by 216 hours as the entire eastern half of the US is basking under a ridge. Fun times ahead! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 I have been searching and searching for a year where temps and perhaps pattern to some degree was some what repeated and I found the Winter of 1952-1953 to be a close match. another tip off to this is the fact that records out in Southern California are currently being challenged or broken with accordance to this year currently. Temps were generally the same for both November and December only exception is that Philadelphia International Airport picked up 2".... but hey here in Media we picked up about that amount in the first couple of days of December this year albeit on the grass and we are only about 13 miles from the airport... (could it be the heat island effect) which was not as prevalent back in 1952-53 I would suppose. Anyhows that year temps for the entire winter wound up pretty much above normal with even an 70 degree day on Feb. 21st. Biggest snowstorm that year was 7.1" on March 8th, 1953 Total snowfall at Philadelphia International Airport was 16.3" Going into this year I was concerned on my winter weather outlook about the above normal water temps in the Pacific and Atlantic could be the culprit of the active PAC Jet and also even worse forming a very robust Southeast Ridge that has been temporarily squashed. I was going with 18" for the snowfall year just hope we get a threat that pans out but I truly think we are waiting until at least Jan. 20th! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 The way the models have been going it is laughable to look at what happens 10 days from now, however the southeast ridge would be a big problem for anyone south of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 There is no real cold air in Canada for this time of year. We should be seeing some temps near -50F. sfc_con_temp_na.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Temp at 16.1 here Hoping to get to 15 for 2015 Happy new one everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Happy New Year to all!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 happy new year to all on this great site! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Happy New Year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Happy New Year!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Happy New Year to everyone as well! After being in a hot restaurant for several hours then heading outside....feels damn cold. 23.3F... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Empiric winter victory with the cold NYE Some vodka cold for our parts following the anemic clipper next week on the 0z ECM, frozen mud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Frozen mud here THIS morning. Only 8 degrees outside... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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