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E PA/NJ/DE/Okle: Banter/Non Storm OBS thread


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I know the upcoming event is still 5-6 days away but as of now it looks to be a cutter and not suppressed. If my recollection is correct this will be the third time in a row the Euro has been schooled by the GFS.  Could end up being a problem for the 'pay for Euro' sites.   I subscribed to Eurowx to get the 6 to 12 hour intervals but so far it has been a waste of money.  I do like their more realistic snowfall maps however.  Anyone got some thoughts on why the Euro's performance seems so poor this winter?  After Sandy I thought the Euro was God.

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I know the upcoming event is still 5-6 days away but as of now it looks to be a cutter and not suppressed. If my recollection is correct this will be the third time in a row the Euro has been schooled by the GFS.  Could end up being a problem for the 'pay for Euro' sites.   I subscribed to Eurowx to get the 6 to 12 hour intervals but so far it has been a waste of money.  I do like their more realistic snowfall maps however.  Anyone got some thoughts on why the Euro's performance seems so poor this winter?  After Sandy I thought the Euro was God.

I think that the Euro has had troubles when we get a pattern (EL Nino induced?) that drops energy into the SW CONUS and whether to eject it or close it off. As for the upcoming storm it seems the globals may have underestimated the strength of the SE ridge to affect the 500mb flow.

 

gfs_z500trend_namer_1.png

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Im giving it 2 more weeks....if nothing changed and nothing on the horizon then the towel is being thrown in. For now I will monitor any threats but there just aren't any on the horizon. There is a clipper popping up on guidance for next week but it appears it gets shredded apart in the flow with little to no fanfare which makes sense in this pattern.

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Forsythia says "what winter?"

Wow exactly what I posted on my facebook weather page!!  These guys pop very easily when there is warm weather of any consequence.  

 

However this week's cold should stop them before the next warm up comes in over the weekend at least down here in Southeastern PA...

 

Currently 28 in my back yard no wind... almost feels like air conditioning feels great out there cool crisp clear air!

 

I do want my snow too though!

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I have been searching and searching for a year where temps and perhaps pattern to some degree was some what repeated and I found the Winter of 1952-1953 to be a close match.  another tip off to this is the fact that records out in Southern California are currently being challenged or broken with accordance to this year currently.

 

Temps were generally the same for both November and December only exception is that Philadelphia International Airport picked up 2".... but hey here in Media we picked up about that amount in the first couple of days of December this year albeit on the grass and we are only about 13 miles from the airport... (could it be the heat island effect) which was not as prevalent back in 1952-53 I would suppose.

 

Anyhows that year temps for the entire winter wound up pretty much above normal with even an 70 degree day on Feb. 21st.

 

Biggest snowstorm that year was 7.1" on March 8th, 1953

 

Total snowfall at Philadelphia International Airport was 16.3"

 

Going into this year I was concerned on my winter weather outlook about the above normal water temps in the Pacific and Atlantic could be the culprit of the active PAC Jet and also even worse forming a very robust Southeast Ridge that has been temporarily squashed.

 

I was going with 18" for the snowfall year just hope we get a threat that pans out but I truly think we are waiting until at least Jan. 20th!

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