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E PA/NJ/DE/Okle: Banter/Non Storm OBS thread


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Well, the good news is the pattern will yield some cold as the cold air out west eventually sloshes east but this cold has no staying power thanks to the NAO not wanting to stay negative long enough. The cold will be in and then exit out back into Eastern Candada. 

 

It's a problem for snow around here when there is a strong southeast ridge, warmer than average Atlantic water temps, and dooms day when the southern jet is screaming up into Canada due to these factors.

 

I will now climb my snow look out tower higher but I don't see any snow of consequence over the next 10 days at least.

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Well, the good news is the pattern will yield some cold as the cold air out west eventually sloshes east but this cold has no staying power thanks to the NAO not wanting to stay negative long enough. The cold will be in and then exit out back into Eastern Candada. 

 

It's a problem for snow around here when there is a strong southeast ridge, warmer than average Atlantic water temps, and dooms day when the southern jet is screaming up into Canada due to these factors.

 

I will now climb my snow look out tower higher but I don't see any snow of consequence over the next 10 days at least.

We shall see Kevin.... but I see cold winning out over any brief warm ups over the next 30 days....plus I always like these patterns with arctic air just to the north and the ridge in the southeast - the battle zone will yield some surprising winter weather for many in this area over the next 10 days....and without a doubt over the next few weeks. But as we all know this is not an exact science so....stay tuned and Happy Holidays!!

Paul

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We shall see Kevin.... but I see cold winning out over any brief warm ups over the next 30 days....plus I always like these patterns with arctic air just to the north and the ridge in the southeast - the battle zone will yield some surprising winter weather for many in this area over the next 10 days....and without a doubt over the next few weeks. But as we all know this is not an exact science so....stay tuned and Happy Holidays!!

Paul

Happy Holidays to you too.... totally agree about the strong temp gradients causing our big snows and yes the Southeast Ridge Love it or Hate it does supply an ingredient for the Big Ones from time to time....

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Pattern should switch to warmer/above avg again after around the 10th of January. Most guidance has the trof shifting to the west coast and replacing the weak epo ridge while a ridge takes over in the east. Not that guidance has been red hot in the long range but just regurgitating what is showing up down the road this month

Hate to say it but methinks we are heading for a much below normal snowfall kind of winter with above normal temps. Would only take one big snowstorm to alter people's opinions on this winter, but overall it has been a dud-to-date (dec 1-present).

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Pattern should switch to warmer/above avg again after around the 10th of January. Most guidance has the trof shifting to the west coast and replacing the weak epo ridge while a ridge takes over in the east. Not that guidance has been red hot in the long range but just regurgitating what is showing up down the road this month

Hate to say it but methinks we are heading for a much below normal snowfall kind of winter with above normal temps. Would only take one big snowstorm to alter people's opinions on this winter, but overall it has been a dud-to-date (dec 1-present).

Imby best first 30 days of winter ever mid Nov to mid Dec. Second best was 2005 who knows we may still see a hecs

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Huh???

9.7" snow Ray and below normal temps near 9 days of snowcover. That's a lot for before Decmber 15th. It was cold enough in November to consider it a winter month

 

8 events with snow falling and one period where snow fell for 30 hours....yeah that would be great for any real winter month Dec-Feb

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9.7" snow Ray and below normal temps near 9 days of snowcover. That's a lot for before Decmber 15th. It was cold enough in November to consider it a winter month

8 events with snow falling and one period where snow fell for 30 hours....yeah that would be great for any real winter month Dec-Feb

Indeed. The difference between the city and the NW burbs is remarkable this year.

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Pattern should switch to warmer/above avg again after around the 10th of January. Most guidance has the trof shifting to the west coast and replacing the weak epo ridge while a ridge takes over in the east. Not that guidance has been red hot in the long range but just regurgitating what is showing up down the road this month

Hate to say it but methinks we are heading for a much below normal snowfall kind of winter with above normal temps. Would only take one big snowstorm to alter people's opinions on this winter, but overall it has been a dud-to-date (dec 1-present).

 

I'd be enjoying the winter more with snow in the air, on the ground, on the way, or any combination of those three. So yeah, the last couple of weeks have been uninspiring for sure.

This coming week should be interesting for clarifying things for the period from next weekend through the following week, which appears to have potential for some snow.

Beyond that is too far away to make assumptions about, especially this winter. Could have a warm up/thaw, but I'm not writing off later January into February.

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I'd be enjoying the winter more with snow in the air, on the ground, on the way, or any combination of those three. So yeah, the last couple of weeks have been uninspiring for sure.

This coming week should be interesting for clarifying things for the period from next weekend through the following week, which appears to have potential for some snow.

Beyond that is too far away to make assumptions about, especially this winter. Could have a warm up/thaw, but I'm not writing off later January into February.

Don't write off any of January yet - unless SE ridge really takes hold.

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Most guidance has an 'event' for us next weekend...hopefully this one has legs. PV in a favorable spot, STJ active, EPO ridge, flat SE Ridge. Things are somewhat favorable for this to occur so my confidence in snow for us next weekend is higher than normal. Even the GFS took a huge step towards the other globals. Only worrying about possible suppression.

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