RedSky Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Messing around with some #'s for Philly, nothing scientific just created some ranges which each provide a decent sample size" 26 yrs. with no measurable DEC snow - average 14.3" for the remainder of the season 23 yrs. with < 1" of measurable DEC snow - average 18.6" for the remainder of the season - 26 yrs. with 1-3" of DEC snow - average 16.6" for the remainder of the season 24 yrs. with 3-6" of DEC snow - average 16.3" for the remainder of the season 31 yrs. with > 6" of DEC snow - average 23.4" for the remainder of the season Let's see the breakdown of Philly's 10 snowiest winters and what they got in December, that should be telling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Let's see the breakdown of Philly's 10 snowiest winters and what they got in December, that should be telling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 philly top 10 snow.jpg If i lived in Philly i would be pulling for 7" by months end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 philly top 10 snow.jpg Damn...that's all over the place for Dec snow and total for the year top 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Assuming that PHL hasn't had a trace yet in December, if we could get a trace's worth of this snow over there tonight, we'd pick up an extra 4" for the season. Sounds like a good deal! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Assuming that PHL hasn't had a trace yet in December, if we could get a trace's worth of this snow over there tonight, we'd pick up an extra 4" for the season. Sounds like a good deal! I like your thinking however a trace isn't measurable snow, those years reflect 0.1 - 0.9" of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 I like your thinking however a trace isn't measurable snow, those years reflect 0.1 - 0.9" of snow You're right....how about a tenth then? Might be a tall order tonight, but we do still have 3 weeks left in December. 24.1 would work too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Damn...that's all over the place for Dec snow and total for the year top 10. Not really. 8 of the 10 had 7" or greater. That's a decent signal. Not foolproof, but a good shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Not really. 8 of the 10 had 7" or greater. That's a decent signal. Not foolproof, but a good shot. True but I looked at it as totals: (2) in the tenths, (3) in the single digits, (4) in the teens and (1) 20+. Different way of thinking I guess... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 True but I looked at it as totals: (2) in the tenths, (3) in the single digits, (4) in the teens and (1) 20+. Different way of thinking I guess... Perhaps, but if you compare to average, its strong signal for above average leading to big winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Messing around with some #'s for Philly, nothing scientific just created some ranges which each provide a decent sample size" 26 yrs. with no measurable DEC snow - average 14.3" for the remainder of the season (median - 12.5") 23 yrs. with < 1" of measurable DEC snow - average 18.6" for the remainder of the season - (median - 16.3") 26 yrs. with 1-3" of DEC snow - average 16.6" for the remainder of the season (median - 17.0") 24 yrs. with 3-6" of DEC snow - average 16.3" for the remainder of the season (median - 15.0") 31 yrs. with > 6" of DEC snow - average 23.4" for the remainder of the season (median - 22.6") Added median #'s per Ray's request - interesting that 3-6" range, JAN was particularly crappy following those DEC's however there were some nice MAR's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Added median #'s per Ray's request - interesting that 3-6" range, JAN was particularly crappy following those DEC's however there were some nice MAR's Thanks for doing this! I asked this in the obs thread, but after last night I'm thinking PHL may have picked up 0.1" overnight, which statistically speaking gets a nice bump (4") in January - March totals. Either way I don't think I'd be rooting against another 3 to 5.9" before the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Thanks for doing this! I asked this in the obs thread, but after last night I'm thinking PHL may have picked up 0.1" overnight, which statistically speaking gets a nice bump (4") in January - March totals. Either way I don't think I'd be rooting against another 3 to 5.9" before the end of the month. They had not as of 7AM, but the day is young. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Added median #'s per Ray's request - interesting that 3-6" range, JAN was particularly crappy following those DEC's however there were some nice MAR's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Days of snow and nearing 1/5th my winter call of 55" and it's just Dec 11th. I have obviously gone too low Yet they are talking of punting winter right and left....ay caramba Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Yet they are talking of punting winter right and left....ay caramba Well, I have seen talk of punting the rest of December...but that's based on the milder and unsnowy look on the models for the next 7 to 10 days. I'm betting on at least one wintry threat in the last week or so of December, which is also when I believe we'll take the turn back to chillier with wintry precip chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Days of snow and nearing 1/5th my winter call of 55" and it's just Dec 11th. I have obviously gone too low Yet they are talking of punting winter right and left....ay caramba for some unknown reason I ventured into the NYC winter banter thread this afternoon, sky is falling, busted winter forecasts, KU's are overrated, pattern change is always 10 days away, cat fights....... it's a veritable loony bin on the bright side gas is now $2.25 by the office, $33 to fill the tank Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 for some unknown reason I ventured into the NYC winter banter thread this afternoon, sky is falling, busted winter forecasts, KU's are overrated, pattern change is always 10 days away, cat fights....... it's a veritable loony bin one-flew-over-the-cuckoos-nest1-lg.jpg on the bright side gas is now $2.25 by the office, $33 to fill the tank Careful about venturing there, only Snake Plisken has made it out alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blinkers88 Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 for some unknown reason I ventured into the NYC winter banter thread this afternoon, sky is falling, busted winter forecasts, KU's are overrated, pattern change is always 10 days away, cat fights....... it's a veritable loony bin one-flew-over-the-cuckoos-nest1-lg.jpg on the bright side gas is now $2.25 by the office, $33 to fill the tank $2.25?? Wow I'm paying $2.82 here yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 I would really like to see a few days of bright blue skies and sun. December has been dreary so far. Maybe Ray could lend us some Elko weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Geminid meteor shower peaks tomorrow night. Looks like a somewhat decent forecast for our area. Expectations of ~120 an hour. Should be a nice show! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Geminid meteor shower peaks tomorrow night. Looks like a somewhat decent forecast for our area. Expectations of ~120 an hour. Should be a nice show! Clouds could be an issue In other news i need the 18z GFS 360hr to happen... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Freezing drizzle in the Poconos. Flurries at times. Mt holly put out statement kudos. Roads are fine crews are out. Temps range from 26-28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 It really is amazing how the forecasted warmth just has not been as great or as sustainable as predicted. So far during the December torch here in NW Chesco (0.4 below normal) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 It really is amazing how the forecasted warmth just has not been as great or as sustainable as predicted. So far during the December torch here in NW Chesco (0.4 below normal) Yeah, it's been striking to watch models and forecasts 7+ days out predicting warmth only to have slightly below normal temps when the day arrives. Now the 50 degrees early next week looks more like normal low 40's before dropping off into the 30's for later in the week. Even today was advertised to be in the mid 40's earlier in the week, but we didn't get out of the 30's. Quoting JB, "Heckuva way to run a warmup". Went out through Glenmoore this morning and was surprised to see how much snow was left around your house. I was skeptical of the 3 inches you reported as I only had 1.25", but now I can believe it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 If anyone is getting bored with the Eagles game the NYC forum is offering up some entertainment. Their December forecast thread is percolating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Here's an observation - the sun is out! I mean for more than like 5 minutes. Nice! 7 cloudy days in a row is a long stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Hi, I know this is OT but I know we have quite a few posters in the Central Mont Co area. Stay safe guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Hi Rib! Good to see you still moderating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 I want to keep this about what's happening. This is scary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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