KamuSnow Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 The lack of snow potential in the long range GFS and ECM the last two days is painful. 1977 was an awful winter... It's November - patience . Having said that, what about the 00z Euro around day 8-9? 1976-77 was very impressive for cold, not so much so for snow. On the positive side, no two winters are the same, too many variables. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 It's November - patience . Having said that, what about the 00z Euro around day 8-9? 1976-77 was very impressive for cold, not so much so for snow. On the positive side, no two winters are the same, too many variables. J/k - but i do want to get off to a quick start this winter, otherwise the coming cold feels like a continuation of the last 6 weeks of winter of 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 J/k - but i do want to get off to a quick start this winter, otherwise the coming cold feels like a continuation of the last 6 weeks of winter of 2014 Not to worry, WxBell maps showing 1-2 ft here by day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Not to worry, WxBell maps showing 1-2 ft here by day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 One has to consider most around here realizing it or not are having their expectations changed due to the number of snowier than normal winters since the beginning on this century. 2001-2006 above normal except 2002 and 2010-2014 a five year period minus 2012 that is unprecedented. I always fear a return of 1980-1992, youngins on the board couldn't handle that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 One has to consider most around here realizing it or not are having their expectations changed due to the number of snowier than normal winters since the beginning on this century. 2001-2006 above normal except 2002 and 2010-2014 a five year period minus 2008,2012 that is unprecedented. I always fear a return of 1980-1992, youngins on the board couldn't handle that Oh, they so couldn't Having been away starting 03-04, I've grown more and more jealous. If I ever get back to the area, most likely the snowy winter trend will end and it WILL go back to the winters of my youth... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Oh, they so couldn't Having been away starting 03-04, I've grown more and more jealous. If I ever get back to the area, most likely the snowy winter trend will end and it WILL go back to the winters of my youth... Didn't know you have been away from the area that long, at least you have 02-03 and left on a high note There is always an escape option to the finger lakes, New England if things go south hehe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Oh, they so couldn't Having been away starting 03-04, I've grown more and more jealous. If I ever get back to the area, most likely the snowy winter trend will end and it WILL go back to the winters of my youth... I bet even had you been in the same area of Jersey these last 10 years you would still be jealous. The snow fire hosing of Monmouth County the last decade is now legendary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 I bet even had you been in the same area of Jersey these last 10 years you would still be jealous. The snow fire hosing of Monmouth County the last decade is now legendary. Very true. I *was* around for Boxing Day and that *did* make me jealous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Didn't know you have been away from the area that long, at least you have 02-03 and left on a high note There is always an escape option to the finger lakes, New England if things go south hehe I wasn't far away from 03-04 to 05-06, being over in State College. I moved out west mid-winter 06-07, right as it turned on a dime and got cold and sleety. I guess that was just a taste of things to come as far as the influence of my departure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 The lack of snow potential in the long range GFS and ECM the last two days is painful. 1977 was an awful winter... 1997-98 / 2001-02 are awful winters, 1977 was not even remotely close to an awful winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 1997-98 / 2001-02 are awful winters, 1977 was not even remotely close to an awful winter 76-77 across the region featured below normal temperatures and below normal snowfall. If you aren't a big cold fan but are a big snow fan, then that would suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 76-77 across the region featured below normal temperatures and below normal snowfall. If you aren't a big cold fan but are a big snow fan, then that would suck. A great winter for ice skating on the ponds that one was. We played hockey seemingly for months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 76-77 across the region featured below normal temperatures and below normal snowfall. If you aren't a big cold fan but are a big snow fan, then that would suck. if you're a big snow fan then in your bubble over 80% of the winters in Philly will "suck" if you accept the reality that is climo for this area then 76-77 hardly "sucks" from a snowfall standpoint, 13th snowiest JAN on record & 19" for the season are really nothing to complain about... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 if you're a big snow fan then in your bubble over 80% of the winters in Philly will "suck" if you accept the reality that is climo for this area then 76-77 hardly "sucks" from a snowfall standpoint, 13th snowiest JAN on record & 19" for the season are really nothing to complain about... It would hardly suck, if temps were normal. But like I said, if you are a fan of snow but not cold, then pound for pound, you got way more cold for the amount of snow than you were "due". So, it would suck. If you count PHL winters that reaches or exceeds the current normal of 22.4 (which is very close to the long-term mean, btw), that includes 56 of the 130 winters currently on the books. Hardly 20%. 1976-77's total of 18.7" actually ranks 55th least snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 It would hardly suck, if temps were normal. But like I said, if you are a fan of snow but not cold, then pound for pound, you got way more cold for the amount of snow than you were "due". So, it would suck. If you count PHL winters that reaches or exceeds the current normal of 22.4 (which is very close to the long-term mean, btw), that includes 56 of the 130 winters currently on the books. Hardly 20%. 1976-77's total of 18.7" actually ranks 55th least snowy. LOL - so 22.5" is your good snow threshold & 18.7" sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 My new threshold for winter is 40" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 LOL - so 22.5" is your good snow threshold & 18.7" sucks Like I said... for the amount of cold endured in 76-77 to get to only 18.7, yeah that does suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Interesting that GFS and it's parallel have snow for next Sunday N&W of Philly. Not exactly a classic setup with low pressure in the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Not to worry, WxBell maps showing 1-2 ft here by day 10. Ha! That map even has the Monmouth bullseye. More snow there than all of 77. Nothing like a good EC control run to get the snow goggles fired up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Btw today's 12z ECM had the all time winner fantasy run for day 10 you will ever see in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Like I said... for the amount of cold endured in 76-77 to get to only 18.7, yeah that does suck. opinion only, climo says otherwise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 I was only 4 years old in winter of 1976-1977 and I was living up in North Jersey anyway, but I wonder how Cape May (extreme S Jersey in general) fared with snow totals since I would assume that winter featured a supressed track? Records for this area are difficult to come by so any help would be appreciated. My FIL told me that a water main froze and flooded the center of town and then froze solid. Must have been fun ice skating through town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 A great winter for ice skating on the ponds that one was. We played hockey seemingly for months. Agreed. I remember skating right before Christmas, with no snow on the ground (yet). The first accumulating snow was right after Christmas, and I believe the last one was in early February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 I was only 4 years old in winter of 1976-1977 and I was living up in North Jersey anyway, but I wonder how Cape May (extreme S Jersey in general) fared with snow totals since I would assume that winter featured a supressed track? Records for this area are difficult to come by so any help would be appreciated. My FIL told me that a water main froze and flooded the center of town and then froze solid. Must have been fun ice skating through town. I don't have any data for you, but I imagine the snowfall was relatively uniform across the area. The only exception may have been from a storm that (days before) looked like it could be a coastal but turned out to be an Apps runner (came out of the GOM). Here we had a few (3?) inches of snow before the change to rain. I don't recall the date but it may have been early February. That was a bit of a kick in the teeth after all the cold we had had for the 2 (plus) previous months. We had been in a bit of a Nor'easter snow drought for a few years, which didn't end until the following winter. So maybe Cape May wound up with 16" plus or minus? An educated WAG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 opinion only, climo says otherwise Only 83% of normal is not an opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 opinion only, climo says otherwise what does this even mean, of course it is his opinion, and climo would say that when this region is that below normal temperature-twise, it is reasonable to be say that winter dissapointed in terms of snowfall. that is the point ray was trying to make. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Only 83% of normal is not an opinion. I think what he is saying is that it is close enough to normal snowfall for it not to cout as "Sucking" per se. But as I just said in response to his post, if you take winters with that kind of cold departure and compare them to other seasons with that kind of cold, then you arrive at the conclusion that only 18 inches of snow that winter was a dissapointment. If i wasn't too lazy I would actually do this, of course lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 I think what he is saying is that it is close enough to normal snowfall for it not to cout as "Sucking" per se. But as I just said in response to his post, if you take winters with that kind of cold departure and compare them to other seasons with that kind of cold, then you arrive at the conclusion that only 18 inches of snow that winter was a dissapointment. If i wasn't too lazy I would actually do this, of course lol. It really isn't rocket science, 86% of your mean annual snowfall is not awful or "sucks" - #Climo If you weren't lazy you'd see that extreme cold winters on record at Philadelphia are NOT a direct correlation to significantly above AVE seasonal snowfall. In fact it's less than a 60-40% correlation so very cold winters with mediocre (slightly below / above AVE) snowfall are not an anomaly rather a distinct "disappointing" possibility. Of the top 20 coldest winters on record at Philadelphia 17 have snowfall data, out of those 17 years 10 had significantly above AVE snowfall while 7 had near average snow. - #Climo squared Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 It really isn't rocket science, 86% of your mean annual snowfall is not awful or "sucks" - #Climo If you weren't lazy you'd see that extreme cold winters on record at Philadelphia are NOT a direct correlation to significantly above AVE seasonal snowfall. In fact it's less than a 60-40% correlation so very cold winters with mediocre (slightly below / above AVE) snowfall are not an anomaly rather a distinct "disappointing" possibility. Of the top 20 coldest winters on record at Philadelphia 17 have snowfall data, out of those 17 years 10 had significantly above AVE snowfall while 7 had near average snow. - #Climo squared Oh dear lord. First its 83%. Second its 17% below normal. Third, on a warm winter, that wouldn't be bad, but with a cold winter, that sucks. Unless you are a cold nut. In which case (and only in such case) it would not suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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