12z Models 12/20/2010

[mitchnick]

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD

147 PM EST MON DEC 20 2010

VALID 12Z THU DEC 23 2010 - 12Z MON DEC 27 2010

...SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG AND JUST

INLAND OF THE WEST COAST FOR ANOTHER 5 TO 6 DAYS...

TELECONNECTIONS WITH A RIDGE MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE PRAIRIE

PROVINCES OF CANADA FAVORS NEARLY CLOSED CYCLONES ALOFT MOVING

UNDER ITS BASE THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS LATER

THIS WEEK...A SOLUTION BEST INDICATED BY THE 00Z CANADIAN AND 00Z

GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE...ENERGY MOVING

OUT INTO THE MIDWEST EARLY ON IS EXPECTED TO SCOOP UP SOME

SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

BEFORE LOSING LATITUDE AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE EAST UNDER THE BASE

OF A PORTION OF THE POLAR VORTEX DESCENDING THROUGH EASTERN

CANADA. THIS SOLUTION IS BEST REPRESENTED BY THE 06Z GFS/00Z

CANADIAN/00Z ECMWF AND GEFS MEAN GUIDANCE. OVERALL...USED A

COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z CANADIAN/00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN...AS THE

06Z GFS MIGHT BE A TOUCH TOO QUICK PER ITS OCCASIONAL QUICK BIAS

WITH SYSTEMS IN THE WESTERLIES...WHICH LED TO GOOD CONTINUITY WITH

THE PRESSURES FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN

MOIST ALONG THE WEST COAST...AND COLD ACROSS THE NORTHERN

PLAINS/MIDWEST/MUCH OF THE EAST.

WEST AND PLAINS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

WITH STRONG RIDGING PERSISTING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL CANADA

THROUGH THE PERIOD...A PACIFIC SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH

THE REGION UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE. TIMING ISSUES EXIST...WITH THE

06Z GFS THE QUICKEST. SINCE THE RIDGING ACROSS WESTERN AND

CENTRAL CANADA IS SHOWING SOME PROGRESSION IN THE NORTHERN

STREAM...A SLOWER PROGRESSION IS LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN

STREAM...SO WENT WITH THE NON-06Z GFS GUIDANCE HERE.

OVERALL...THE 00Z CANADIAN HAD THE BEST ENSEMBLE MEAN SUPPORT...SO

WENT WITH A 00Z CANADIAN/00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN COMPROMISE WITH

THIS SYSTEM. SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WEST IS

EXPECTED FOR ANOTHER 5 TO 6 DAYS...WITH LOCAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT

AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OLYMPIC

PENINSULA...NORTHERN COASTAL RANGES OF CALIFORNIA AND SISKIYOU

RANGE...AS WELL AS THE COASTAL RANGES OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND

SOUTHERN WASATCH DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

SOUTH AND EAST...

THE 12Z ECMWF IS SLOW/MORE CLOSED THAN THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC

GUIDANCE WITH ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN

PLAINS...WITH LESS THAN ONE-QUARTER OF THE OVERALL 00Z GLOBAL

ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUPPORTING ITS SOLUTION...IMPLYING IT IS TOO

SLOW. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THIS

SYSTEMS PROGRESSION...SO SOME SLOWING WAS MADE TO THE MORNING

PRESSURES. TELECONNECTIONS FARTHER NORTH IMPLY STRONGER ENERGY

SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY RATHER

THAN THE SOUTHERN TIER...WHICH SHOULD ABSORB THE SOUTHWESTERN

ENERGY AS IT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS/MIDWEST. EITHER WAY...A

SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS

INTO/NEAR THE DEEP SOUTH BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE MUCH OF THE

EASTERN SEABOARD. THE BIGGER QUESTION IS HOW CLOSE TO THE NEW

ENGLAND COAST THIS CYCLONE WILL TRACK. THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE MOST

NORTHWESTERLY OF THE GUIDANCE AT THE SURFACE...AND IF THIS SURFACE

LOW WERE MOVING UP THE EAST SIDE OF AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH RATHER

THAN A PROGRESSIVE CLOSED CYCLONE...A MORE COASTAL TRACK FOR NEW

ENGLAND WOULD MAKE SENSE. SINCE THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THE

CASE...AND THE 12Z ECMWF BACKED OFF THIS IDEA SOMEWHAT...THE 00Z

ECMWF CYCLONE TRACK ALONG THE EAST COAST IS PROBABLY TOO FAR

NORTHWEST/TOO CLOSE TO THE COAST. OTHER GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE

ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS...MOVE THIS SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE GULF

STREAM...A NATURAL BAROCLINIC ZONE/AREA OF TEMPERATURE GRADIENT

OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST...WHICH APPEARS MORE LIKELY CONSIDERING

THE FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. THE 12Z CANADIAN/12Z NOGAPS MOVE IT DUE

EAST AS IT EMERGES INTO THE ATLANTIC...TAKING NEW ENGLAND OUT OF

THE PICTURE. DETAIL ISSUES WITH MID-LEVEL CYCLONE PLACEMENT HAVE

LED TO INCREASED SPREAD OF THE LOW TRACK AS IT LEAVES THE EAST

COAST. PER PREFERENCES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND WEST LATE IN THE

PERIOD...STARTED WITH THE 00Z CANADIAN HERE...ALTHOUGH THE 00Z

ECMWF/00Z GEFS MEAN/12Z GFS ARE REASONABLE ALTERNATIVES. EITHER

WAY...WINTER WEATHER SHOULD SPREAD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS

EASTWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC

STATES...AS WELL AS SNOW SHOWERS UNDER THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL

LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THE IMPACT OF THIS

SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST REMAINS SOMEWHAT OF A

QUESTION MARK...AS THE 12Z GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY DRIED OUT OF THE

MID-ATLANTIC STATES YET INCREASED AMOUNTS IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST

NEW ENGLAND. FOR THE TIME BEING THE MORE NORTHWESTERN 00Z ECMWF

TRACK AND THE SLOW PACE OF THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION APPEAR TO BE

LOWER PROBABILITY ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS.

ROTH

that's actually encouraging

they don't have the answer yet either

[CAPE]

that's actually encouraging

they don't have the answer yet either

lol i was thinking the same thing...no clue at this point

[Absolute Humidity]

Actually it's still 6-7 days. It seems stuck in time.

Yes, has not gotten past 144 for 2 days now. Its still in GFS lala land and 12 to 24 outside the EC's (former as of last week) deadly zone. During a Nina, I certainly would not get excited about anything on ANY model until there inside of 60. Must remember 2009 how every 72hr + snow event south of 40 turned to rain between 48h and 60h due to the models inability to predict the SE Ridge, except for perhaps the EC. This year, the pattern may end up looking south, way south and OTS.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

that's actually encouraging

they don't have the answer yet either

yea....and they favored the GFS, closer to the coast solution, last week which obv ended up incorrect for yesterdays non-event.

[CTWeatherFreak]

>>THE 12Z CANADIAN/12Z NOGAPS MOVE IT DUE

EAST AS IT EMERGES INTO THE ATLANTIC...TAKING NEW ENGLAND OUT OF

THE PICTURE.<<

I thought 12z Nogaps was a hit and close to the coast.. Someone even posted the map!

[thegreatdr]

It's been corrected to remove this issue. =)

>>THE 12Z CANADIAN/12Z NOGAPS MOVE IT DUE

EAST AS IT EMERGES INTO THE ATLANTIC...TAKING NEW ENGLAND OUT OF

THE PICTURE.<<

I thought 12z Nogaps was a hit and close to the coast.. Someone even posted the map!

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

no reason to get crazy when this looks to be 6 days out for what seems to be 3 days now lol. but if we can dig a deep enough trough, the ridge in the west should back up a bit. we have the 50/50. we have plenty of cold air. its gonna come down to the timing of the phase.

im kinda thinking that this wont be a HECS for the MA but more of SECS/MECS. but thinking that this system will sling into the Gulf of ME and basically act as the next 50/50 for the big event, the final one around NYE. yesterdays event was a swing and a miss. Xmas event will be a single down the line retrieved nicely by the RF preventing a double. then the NYE event will be the high fly ball deep to Left Center.....

[Srain]

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION TO LAST SECTION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD

215 PM EST MON DEC 20 2010

VALID 12Z THU DEC 23 2010 - 12Z MON DEC 27 2010

...SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG AND JUST

INLAND OF THE WEST COAST FOR ANOTHER 5 TO 6 DAYS...

TELECONNECTIONS WITH A RIDGE MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE PRAIRIE

PROVINCES OF CANADA FAVORS NEARLY CLOSED CYCLONES ALOFT MOVING

UNDER ITS BASE THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS LATER

THIS WEEK...A SOLUTION BEST INDICATED BY THE 00Z CANADIAN AND 00Z

GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE...ENERGY MOVING

OUT INTO THE MIDWEST EARLY ON IS EXPECTED TO SCOOP UP SOME

SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

BEFORE LOSING LATITUDE AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE EAST UNDER THE BASE

OF A PORTION OF THE POLAR VORTEX DESCENDING THROUGH EASTERN

CANADA. THIS SOLUTION IS BEST REPRESENTED BY THE 06Z GFS/00Z

CANADIAN/00Z ECMWF AND GEFS MEAN GUIDANCE. OVERALL...USED A

COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z CANADIAN/00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN...AS THE

06Z GFS MIGHT BE A TOUCH TOO QUICK PER ITS OCCASIONAL QUICK BIAS

WITH SYSTEMS IN THE WESTERLIES...WHICH LED TO GOOD CONTINUITY WITH

THE PRESSURES FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN

MOIST ALONG THE WEST COAST...AND COLD ACROSS THE NORTHERN

PLAINS/MIDWEST/MUCH OF THE EAST.

WEST AND PLAINS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

WITH STRONG RIDGING PERSISTING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL CANADA

THROUGH THE PERIOD...A PACIFIC SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH

THE REGION UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE. TIMING ISSUES EXIST...WITH THE

06Z GFS THE QUICKEST. SINCE THE RIDGING ACROSS WESTERN AND

CENTRAL CANADA IS SHOWING SOME PROGRESSION IN THE NORTHERN

STREAM...A SLOWER PROGRESSION IS LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN

STREAM...SO WENT WITH THE NON-06Z GFS GUIDANCE HERE.

OVERALL...THE 00Z CANADIAN HAD THE BEST ENSEMBLE MEAN SUPPORT...SO

WENT WITH A 00Z CANADIAN/00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN COMPROMISE WITH

THIS SYSTEM. SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WEST IS

EXPECTED FOR ANOTHER 5 TO 6 DAYS...WITH LOCAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT

AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OLYMPIC

PENINSULA...NORTHERN COASTAL RANGES OF CALIFORNIA AND SISKIYOU

RANGE...AS WELL AS THE COASTAL RANGES OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND

SOUTHERN WASATCH DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

SOUTH AND EAST...

THE 12Z ECMWF IS SLOW/MORE CLOSED THAN THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC

GUIDANCE WITH ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN

PLAINS...WITH LESS THAN ONE-QUARTER OF THE OVERALL 00Z GLOBAL

ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUPPORTING ITS SOLUTION...IMPLYING IT IS TOO

SLOW. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THIS

SYSTEMS PROGRESSION...SO SOME SLOWING WAS MADE TO THE MORNING

PRESSURES. TELECONNECTIONS FARTHER NORTH IMPLY STRONGER ENERGY

SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY RATHER

THAN THE SOUTHERN TIER...WHICH SHOULD ABSORB THE SOUTHWESTERN

ENERGY AS IT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS/MIDWEST. EITHER WAY...A

SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS

INTO/NEAR THE DEEP SOUTH BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE MUCH OF THE

EASTERN SEABOARD. THE BIGGER QUESTION IS HOW CLOSE TO THE NEW

ENGLAND COAST THIS CYCLONE WILL TRACK. THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE MOST

NORTHWESTERLY OF THE GUIDANCE AT THE SURFACE...AND IF THIS SURFACE

LOW WERE MOVING UP THE EAST SIDE OF AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH RATHER

THAN A PROGRESSIVE CLOSED CYCLONE...A MORE COASTAL TRACK FOR NEW

ENGLAND WOULD MAKE SENSE. SINCE THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THE

CASE...AND THE 12Z ECMWF BACKED OFF THIS IDEA SOMEWHAT...THE 00Z

ECMWF CYCLONE TRACK ALONG THE EAST COAST IS PROBABLY TOO FAR

NORTHWEST/TOO CLOSE TO THE COAST. OTHER GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE

ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS...MOVE THIS SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE GULF

STREAM...A NATURAL BAROCLINIC ZONE/AREA OF TEMPERATURE GRADIENT

OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST...WHICH APPEARS MORE LIKELY CONSIDERING

THE FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. THE 12Z CANADIAN MOVES IT DUE EAST AS IT

EMERGES INTO THE ATLANTIC...TAKING NEW ENGLAND OUT OF THE PICTURE.

DETAIL ISSUES WITH MID-LEVEL CYCLONE PLACEMENT ACROSS EASTERN

CANADA HAVE LED TO INCREASED SPREAD OF THE LOW TRACK AS IT LEAVES

THE EAST COAST. PER PREFERENCES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND WEST LATE

IN THE PERIOD...STARTED WITH THE 00Z CANADIAN HERE...ALTHOUGH THE

00Z ECMWF/00Z GEFS MEAN/12Z GFS ARE REASONABLE ALTERNATIVES.

EITHER WAY...WINTER WEATHER SHOULD SPREAD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS

EASTWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC

STATES...AS WELL AS SNOW SHOWERS UNDER THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL

LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THE IMPACT OF THIS

SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST REMAINS SOMEWHAT OF A

QUESTION MARK...AS THE 12Z GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY DRIED OUT OF THE

MID-ATLANTIC STATES YET INCREASED AMOUNTS IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST

NEW ENGLAND. FOR THE TIME BEING THE MORE NORTHWESTERN 00Z ECMWF

TRACK AND THE SLOW PACE OF THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION APPEAR TO BE

LOWER PROBABILITY ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS.

ROTH

[Baroclinic Zone]

>>THE 12Z CANADIAN/12Z NOGAPS MOVE IT DUE

EAST AS IT EMERGES INTO THE ATLANTIC...TAKING NEW ENGLAND OUT OF

THE PICTURE.<<

I thought 12z Nogaps was a hit and close to the coast.. Someone even posted the map!

[nzucker]

Looking at the Euro's upper-level and surface pattern at 138 and 144, the associated precip fields don't make perfect sense to me. I wouldn't worry too much about the QPF at this point. I'm also not in bed with how the Euro tracks the SW across the US, comparing the 5h pattern at 108 hours to GFS/ukmet/Canadian it's the outlier, having a much sharper SW, slower and further south. The other three are in much better agreement, at least to that point.

100% agree...I think DC would see way more than .1" QPF with a 995mb low off Hatteras rapidly strengthening. I definitely believe the ECM is underdoing the QPF across the board and particularly in the Mid-Atlantic as the cyclogenesis occurs early enough that I'd expect like 3-6" in RIC and 6-12" in DC, not the light stuff presented by this model. As others have said, though, the storm has slowed down which means we're still out of range for high forecasting accuracy. And we remember how all the models performed in the last storm...

[A-L-E-X]

100% agree...I think DC would see way more than .1" QPF with a 995mb low off Hatteras rapidly strengthening. I definitely believe the ECM is underdoing the QPF across the board and particularly in the Mid-Atlantic as the cyclogenesis occurs early enough that I'd expect like 3-6" in RIC and 6-12" in DC, not the light stuff presented by this model. As others have said, though, the storm has slowed down which means we're still out of range for high forecasting accuracy. And we remember how all the models performed in the last storm...

NYC subforum is a train wreck lol-- people thinking that NYC doesnt get snow from a Miller B just dont know climatology for our region.

[Voyager]

Well, I get home from work hoping to see good news here, but it isn't QUITE as good as it was last night. While things aren't too bad yet, seeing everything shift east is a bit disconcerting.

[KEITH L.I]

NYC subforum is a train wreck lol-- people thinking that NYC doesnt get snow from a Miller B just dont know climatology for our region.

I have to say it's brutal over there..basicaly spoiled from the great winters we have had over the past decade..3-6 inches isn't good enough..I would have died to see a storm like that in most of the 70's and 80's..strong la nina's do favor moderate events like the one GFS and Euro are showing

[IsentropicLift]

NYC subforum is a train wreck lol-- people thinking that NYC doesnt get snow from a Miller B just dont know climatology for our region.

agreed...most don't even know what a miller B is. This system is much more of a miller A. Either way with a storm moving over or near the BM thats rapidly strengthining you would think the QPF is way underdone at this point. I get the feeling some on here want to see a bomb every single run for their back yard and when they dont get it they start to troll the boards.

[IsentropicLift]

Well, I get home from work hoping to see good news here, but it isn't QUITE as good as it was last night. While things aren't too bad yet, seeing everything shift east is a bit disconcerting.

look more closely, not every model shifted east...in fact the GFS shifted northwest and now has a track just NW of the benchmark

[Analog96]

Well, I get home from work hoping to see good news here, but it isn't QUITE as good as it was last night. While things aren't too bad yet, seeing everything shift east is a bit disconcerting.

"Everything" did not shift East. The 12Z GFS is actually way West of where it was at 00Z or 06Z.

[Paweatherguy1]

"Everything" did not shift East. The 12Z GFS is actually way West of where it was at 00Z or 06Z.

I think the idea that it shifted east is coming from the fact that the primary low is dryer over the OV, and there isn't much precip from DC through eastern PA.

Low placement shifted west, but the precip shield was basically gone in a couple areas.

[IsentropicLift]

I think the idea that it shifted east is coming from the fact that the primary low is dryer over the OV, and there isn't much precip from DC through eastern PA.

Low placement shifted west, but the precip shield was basically gone in a couple areas.

most of the mets on here will tell you that looking at QPF output 5 days before a storm is about as useful as an umbrella in a hurricane.

[NaoPos]

most of the mets on here will tell you that looking at QPF output 5 days before a storm is about as useful as an umbrella in a hurricane.

And about as stupid as kite surfing during one! ( would post video, but on iPhone). In reference to qpf, read Wes' blog today. He touches on it a bit.

[yoda]

FWIW, 15z SREFs at 87 hrs seem to want to have a low in S MO

[Guest someguy]

"Everything" did not shift East. The 12Z GFS is actually way West of where it was at 00Z or 06Z.

seriously

wrong

[Voyager]

look more closely, not every model shifted east...in fact the GFS shifted northwest and now has a track just NW of the benchmark

[psuhoffman]

anyone see the euro ensembles?

[earthlight]

seriously

wrong

At around 40 lat. the GFS is a good bit further west at 12z than it was at 06 or 00z, so I don't see how his statement is wrong in that regard.

The primary surface low goes further north and west on the 00z and 06z GFS. The 12z GFS was much further south and east in that regard but then tugged the surface low further northwest than it's previous runs.

I'm guessing that's his point..if not...then he doesn't have one.

[donsutherland1]

anyone see the euro ensembles?

Euro ensemble means:

144h:

168h:

[WeatherFox]

I'll take those storm positions in a heartbeat for us NYC folks. Lets hold the models position, intensify the storm and keep the cold air involved in future runs.

Euro ensemble means:

144h:

168h:

[Wow]

anyone see the euro ensembles?

The means are on Allan's site

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwfens.html

[DJ Amenzo]

Guys, relax. IMO, data is simply correcting for a slightly different, but perhaps more intense scenario where the PV up in NE Canada attempts to phase with the PJ s/w and create one incredibly deep trough complex that encompasses the entire eastern half of the continent. The fact that the spectrals are still so intense and gung-ho on the signal of a major weather event along the east coast 12/25-12/27 is a very telling one indeed. GFS ENS mean is freaking amazing!

[DJ Amenzo]

I'll take those storm positions in a heartbeat for us NYC folks. Lets hold the models position, intensify the storm and keep the cold air involved in future runs.

Yeah and wow, this is awesome for a 50-member ENS mean as well!

[wxphanatic]

Guys, relax. IMO, data is simply correcting for a slightly different, but perhaps more intense scenario where the PV up in NE Canada attempts to phase with the PJ s/w and create one incredibly deep trough complex that encompasses the entire eastern half of the continent. The fact that the spectrals are still so intense and gung-ho on the signal of a major weather event along the east coast 12/25-12/27 is a very telling one indeed. GFS ENS mean is freaking amazing!

"spectrals"