PhineasC Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Seems sorta GFS-esque with the lighter stuff down way of PHL DC RIC....any qpf numbers yet? This run is terrible from PHL south to DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 20, 2010 Author Share Posted December 20, 2010 dude..we get nothing. maybe a dusting Oh, ok..guess it comes together a little too late for us. Gotta be prepped for the possibility, especially since the GFS kinda shows the same thing. But, its still 5 days away, so plenty of time for corrections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Noticeably slower than previous runs. But I would not worry about QPF at this point in time - it's the last thing we should look at now. Let's start worrying about QPF at 72 hours or less before the start of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 20, 2010 Author Share Posted December 20, 2010 QPF gradient is W to E with the capture. DCA: 0.10 (maybe generous) PHL- 0.15 NYC: 0.60 (0.50 line over EWR) Montauk: 1.00" BOS: 1.25" (hard to tell given prior QPF) And that track is pretty classic for us too. Like I said, its not like this is an outlier, GFS is showing something similar..phasing a bit too late for us. NOt really gonna work myself up over that this early in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 bttom line again is, we have something. no way we should focus on qpf nor Sfc low plcement this far out.....the problem for anyone in the lower MA is the timing of the phase. so those in the upper MA and SNE have a little more wiggle room then those south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 raleigh .25-.50 winston salem .10-.25 orf 0.50 ric.25 cho .25 lyh .25 0c line gets close to raleigh and va baech Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Oh, ok..guess it comes together a little too late for us. Gotta be prepped for the possibility, especially since the GFS kinda shows the same thing. But, its still 5 days away, so plenty of time for corrections. im pretty scared now. Thats 2 straight systems that euro has given us a big snowstorm only to give us nothing in subsequent runs. This may be the pattern this winter and we usually do very poorly in La Nina storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Oh, ok..guess it comes together a little too late for us. Gotta be prepped for the possibility, especially since the GFS kinda shows the same thing. But, its still 5 days away, so plenty of time for corrections. HOW CAN a low from the gulf give us nothing??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyS Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Yeah, W-NOAM ridging needs to be more westward toward a climatologically favorable location or this will most likely be a miss S of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Oh, ok..guess it comes together a little too late for us. Gotta be prepped for the possibility, especially since the GFS kinda shows the same thing. But, its still 5 days away, so plenty of time for corrections. Actually it's still 6-7 days. It seems stuck in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 HOW CAN a low from the gulf give us nothing??? I am wondering the same thing. How is it not tapping the Gulf for some decent over-run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveB Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Wow, that is a heck of a storm!! HUGE signal on the Euro guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 HOW CAN a low from the gulf give us nothing??? Phases too late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 This run is terrible from PHL south to DC. Yeah this is not very encouraging... 6/7 days out or not. This almost seems Miller B-esque doesn't it? Phasing late which leaves the M/A skipped? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Actually it's still 6-7 days. It seems stuck in time. Yea this is becoming increasingly alarming...even the gfs went back in time slowing down the s/w Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I am wondering the same thing. How is it not tapping the Gulf for some decent over-run. cuz it doesnt seem to get organized until the disturbance dropping out of the plain states begins to phase with the s/w in the SE states. before that its really just some light precip along the gulf coast. there really isnt a plume of moisture feed from the GOM, unlike last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 re all this talk about its slowness, at 168, its actually positioned at the surface not far from where the 12z gfs has it at the same time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveB Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Yeah this is not very encouraging... 6/7 days out or not. This almost seems Miller B-esque doesn't it? Phasing late which leaves the M/A skipped? Very possible solution and more likely than a Miller A in a Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 cold and windy in the NE afterwards......at least whatever falls should stick around for a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I am wondering the same thing. How is it not tapping the Gulf for some decent over-run. happens a tad too late for the MA. this is not that uncommon. one issue is the ridge axis needs to be further west. rather have this "trend" now than 3 days from now. wont take much to put all of the MA back in the game. just like last week this stuff is fun to watch and track, regardless of the outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 jma piles on... 1014 low over the fl panhandle and slides it harmlessly east off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reale WX Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Yeah this is not very encouraging... 6/7 days out or not. This almost seems Miller B-esque doesn't it? Phasing late which leaves the M/A skipped? No MIller A just doesnt "bomb out" until its too late for Mid Atlantic. The ridge over the west is impressive with this run, trough really really digs over us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I am wondering the same thing. How is it not tapping the Gulf for some decent over-run. Looking at the Euro's upper-level and surface pattern at 138 and 144, the associated precip fields don't make perfect sense to me. I wouldn't worry too much about the QPF at this point. I'm also not in bed with how the Euro tracks the SW across the US, comparing the 5h pattern at 108 hours to GFS/ukmet/Canadian it's the outlier, having a much sharper SW, slower and further south. The other three are in much better agreement, at least to that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 No MIller A just doesnt "bomb out" until its too late for Mid Atlantic. The ridge over the west is impressive with this run, trough really really digs over us The ridge although impressive is really too far to the east. It needs to go west just a little bit. Pretty please Mr. Ridge... are you listenin'? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 12z ukie OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 12z ukie OTS hasn't it only been less than 24 since we saw this picture? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reale WX Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Also need to watch the other vortex to the north that sits over James Bay.. models havent been very consistant with that thing (although lately it seems like they are keeping it north and out of harms way) but it will have a very big effect on where the trough sets up over us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 147 PM EST MON DEC 20 2010 VALID 12Z THU DEC 23 2010 - 12Z MON DEC 27 2010 ...SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG AND JUST INLAND OF THE WEST COAST FOR ANOTHER 5 TO 6 DAYS... TELECONNECTIONS WITH A RIDGE MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA FAVORS NEARLY CLOSED CYCLONES ALOFT MOVING UNDER ITS BASE THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS LATER THIS WEEK...A SOLUTION BEST INDICATED BY THE 00Z CANADIAN AND 00Z GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE...ENERGY MOVING OUT INTO THE MIDWEST EARLY ON IS EXPECTED TO SCOOP UP SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BEFORE LOSING LATITUDE AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE EAST UNDER THE BASE OF A PORTION OF THE POLAR VORTEX DESCENDING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA. THIS SOLUTION IS BEST REPRESENTED BY THE 06Z GFS/00Z CANADIAN/00Z ECMWF AND GEFS MEAN GUIDANCE. OVERALL...USED A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z CANADIAN/00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN...AS THE 06Z GFS MIGHT BE A TOUCH TOO QUICK PER ITS OCCASIONAL QUICK BIAS WITH SYSTEMS IN THE WESTERLIES...WHICH LED TO GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE PRESSURES FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN MOIST ALONG THE WEST COAST...AND COLD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/MIDWEST/MUCH OF THE EAST. WEST AND PLAINS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK... WITH STRONG RIDGING PERSISTING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE PERIOD...A PACIFIC SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE. TIMING ISSUES EXIST...WITH THE 06Z GFS THE QUICKEST. SINCE THE RIDGING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL CANADA IS SHOWING SOME PROGRESSION IN THE NORTHERN STREAM...A SLOWER PROGRESSION IS LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM...SO WENT WITH THE NON-06Z GFS GUIDANCE HERE. OVERALL...THE 00Z CANADIAN HAD THE BEST ENSEMBLE MEAN SUPPORT...SO WENT WITH A 00Z CANADIAN/00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN COMPROMISE WITH THIS SYSTEM. SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WEST IS EXPECTED FOR ANOTHER 5 TO 6 DAYS...WITH LOCAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA...NORTHERN COASTAL RANGES OF CALIFORNIA AND SISKIYOU RANGE...AS WELL AS THE COASTAL RANGES OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN WASATCH DURING THIS TIME FRAME. SOUTH AND EAST... THE 12Z ECMWF IS SLOW/MORE CLOSED THAN THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE WITH ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH LESS THAN ONE-QUARTER OF THE OVERALL 00Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUPPORTING ITS SOLUTION...IMPLYING IT IS TOO SLOW. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEMS PROGRESSION...SO SOME SLOWING WAS MADE TO THE MORNING PRESSURES. TELECONNECTIONS FARTHER NORTH IMPLY STRONGER ENERGY SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY RATHER THAN THE SOUTHERN TIER...WHICH SHOULD ABSORB THE SOUTHWESTERN ENERGY AS IT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS/MIDWEST. EITHER WAY...A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO/NEAR THE DEEP SOUTH BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE MUCH OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE BIGGER QUESTION IS HOW CLOSE TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS CYCLONE WILL TRACK. THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE MOST NORTHWESTERLY OF THE GUIDANCE AT THE SURFACE...AND IF THIS SURFACE LOW WERE MOVING UP THE EAST SIDE OF AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH RATHER THAN A PROGRESSIVE CLOSED CYCLONE...A MORE COASTAL TRACK FOR NEW ENGLAND WOULD MAKE SENSE. SINCE THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THE CASE...AND THE 12Z ECMWF BACKED OFF THIS IDEA SOMEWHAT...THE 00Z ECMWF CYCLONE TRACK ALONG THE EAST COAST IS PROBABLY TOO FAR NORTHWEST/TOO CLOSE TO THE COAST. OTHER GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS...MOVE THIS SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM...A NATURAL BAROCLINIC ZONE/AREA OF TEMPERATURE GRADIENT OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST...WHICH APPEARS MORE LIKELY CONSIDERING THE FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. THE 12Z CANADIAN/12Z NOGAPS MOVE IT DUE EAST AS IT EMERGES INTO THE ATLANTIC...TAKING NEW ENGLAND OUT OF THE PICTURE. DETAIL ISSUES WITH MID-LEVEL CYCLONE PLACEMENT HAVE LED TO INCREASED SPREAD OF THE LOW TRACK AS IT LEAVES THE EAST COAST. PER PREFERENCES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND WEST LATE IN THE PERIOD...STARTED WITH THE 00Z CANADIAN HERE...ALTHOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF/00Z GEFS MEAN/12Z GFS ARE REASONABLE ALTERNATIVES. EITHER WAY...WINTER WEATHER SHOULD SPREAD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS EASTWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...AS WELL AS SNOW SHOWERS UNDER THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THE IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST REMAINS SOMEWHAT OF A QUESTION MARK...AS THE 12Z GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY DRIED OUT OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES YET INCREASED AMOUNTS IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND. FOR THE TIME BEING THE MORE NORTHWESTERN 00Z ECMWF TRACK AND THE SLOW PACE OF THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION APPEAR TO BE LOWER PROBABILITY ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS. ROTH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 question, what happened to the bowling ball low? Why is this now taking such a far south track? Is it cause its ejecting slower? I would think that would argue for a more northerly track since confluence would ease and the 50/50 low would be a little weaker and further away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.