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12z Models 12/20/2010


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QPF gradient is W to E with the capture.

DCA: 0.10 (maybe generous)

PHL- 0.15

NYC: 0.60 (0.50 line over EWR)

Montauk: 1.00"

BOS: 1.25" (hard to tell given prior QPF)

And that track is pretty classic for us too. Like I said, its not like this is an outlier, GFS is showing something similar..phasing a bit too late for us. NOt really gonna work myself up over that this early in the game.

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Oh, ok..guess it comes together a little too late for us. Gotta be prepped for the possibility, especially since the GFS kinda shows the same thing. But, its still 5 days away, so plenty of time for corrections.

im pretty scared now. Thats 2 straight systems that euro has given us a big snowstorm only to give us nothing in subsequent runs. This may be the pattern this winter and we usually do very poorly in La Nina storms.

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Oh, ok..guess it comes together a little too late for us. Gotta be prepped for the possibility, especially since the GFS kinda shows the same thing. But, its still 5 days away, so plenty of time for corrections.

Actually it's still 6-7 days. It seems stuck in time.

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I am wondering the same thing. How is it not tapping the Gulf for some decent over-run.

cuz it doesnt seem to get organized until the disturbance dropping out of the plain states begins to phase with the s/w in the SE states. before that its really just some light precip along the gulf coast. there really isnt a plume of moisture feed from the GOM, unlike last year.

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I am wondering the same thing. How is it not tapping the Gulf for some decent over-run.

happens a tad too late for the MA. this is not that uncommon. one issue is the ridge axis needs to be further west. rather have this "trend" now than 3 days from now. wont take much to put all of the MA back in the game. just like last week this stuff is fun to watch and track, regardless of the outcome.

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Yeah this is not very encouraging... 6/7 days out or not. This almost seems Miller B-esque doesn't it? Phasing late which leaves the M/A skipped?

No MIller A just doesnt "bomb out" until its too late for Mid Atlantic.

The ridge over the west is impressive with this run, trough really really digs over us

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I am wondering the same thing. How is it not tapping the Gulf for some decent over-run.

Looking at the Euro's upper-level and surface pattern at 138 and 144, the associated precip fields don't make perfect sense to me. I wouldn't worry too much about the QPF at this point. I'm also not in bed with how the Euro tracks the SW across the US, comparing the 5h pattern at 108 hours to GFS/ukmet/Canadian it's the outlier, having a much sharper SW, slower and further south. The other three are in much better agreement, at least to that point.

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Also need to watch the other vortex to the north that sits over James Bay.. models havent been very consistant with that thing (although lately it seems like they are keeping it north and out of harms way) but it will have a very big effect on where the trough sets up over us

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EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD

147 PM EST MON DEC 20 2010

VALID 12Z THU DEC 23 2010 - 12Z MON DEC 27 2010

...SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG AND JUST

INLAND OF THE WEST COAST FOR ANOTHER 5 TO 6 DAYS...

TELECONNECTIONS WITH A RIDGE MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE PRAIRIE

PROVINCES OF CANADA FAVORS NEARLY CLOSED CYCLONES ALOFT MOVING

UNDER ITS BASE THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS LATER

THIS WEEK...A SOLUTION BEST INDICATED BY THE 00Z CANADIAN AND 00Z

GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE...ENERGY MOVING

OUT INTO THE MIDWEST EARLY ON IS EXPECTED TO SCOOP UP SOME

SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

BEFORE LOSING LATITUDE AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE EAST UNDER THE BASE

OF A PORTION OF THE POLAR VORTEX DESCENDING THROUGH EASTERN

CANADA. THIS SOLUTION IS BEST REPRESENTED BY THE 06Z GFS/00Z

CANADIAN/00Z ECMWF AND GEFS MEAN GUIDANCE. OVERALL...USED A

COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z CANADIAN/00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN...AS THE

06Z GFS MIGHT BE A TOUCH TOO QUICK PER ITS OCCASIONAL QUICK BIAS

WITH SYSTEMS IN THE WESTERLIES...WHICH LED TO GOOD CONTINUITY WITH

THE PRESSURES FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN

MOIST ALONG THE WEST COAST...AND COLD ACROSS THE NORTHERN

PLAINS/MIDWEST/MUCH OF THE EAST.

WEST AND PLAINS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

WITH STRONG RIDGING PERSISTING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL CANADA

THROUGH THE PERIOD...A PACIFIC SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH

THE REGION UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE. TIMING ISSUES EXIST...WITH THE

06Z GFS THE QUICKEST. SINCE THE RIDGING ACROSS WESTERN AND

CENTRAL CANADA IS SHOWING SOME PROGRESSION IN THE NORTHERN

STREAM...A SLOWER PROGRESSION IS LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN

STREAM...SO WENT WITH THE NON-06Z GFS GUIDANCE HERE.

OVERALL...THE 00Z CANADIAN HAD THE BEST ENSEMBLE MEAN SUPPORT...SO

WENT WITH A 00Z CANADIAN/00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN COMPROMISE WITH

THIS SYSTEM. SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WEST IS

EXPECTED FOR ANOTHER 5 TO 6 DAYS...WITH LOCAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT

AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OLYMPIC

PENINSULA...NORTHERN COASTAL RANGES OF CALIFORNIA AND SISKIYOU

RANGE...AS WELL AS THE COASTAL RANGES OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND

SOUTHERN WASATCH DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

SOUTH AND EAST...

THE 12Z ECMWF IS SLOW/MORE CLOSED THAN THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC

GUIDANCE WITH ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN

PLAINS...WITH LESS THAN ONE-QUARTER OF THE OVERALL 00Z GLOBAL

ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUPPORTING ITS SOLUTION...IMPLYING IT IS TOO

SLOW. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THIS

SYSTEMS PROGRESSION...SO SOME SLOWING WAS MADE TO THE MORNING

PRESSURES. TELECONNECTIONS FARTHER NORTH IMPLY STRONGER ENERGY

SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY RATHER

THAN THE SOUTHERN TIER...WHICH SHOULD ABSORB THE SOUTHWESTERN

ENERGY AS IT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS/MIDWEST. EITHER WAY...A

SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS

INTO/NEAR THE DEEP SOUTH BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE MUCH OF THE

EASTERN SEABOARD. THE BIGGER QUESTION IS HOW CLOSE TO THE NEW

ENGLAND COAST THIS CYCLONE WILL TRACK. THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE MOST

NORTHWESTERLY OF THE GUIDANCE AT THE SURFACE...AND IF THIS SURFACE

LOW WERE MOVING UP THE EAST SIDE OF AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH RATHER

THAN A PROGRESSIVE CLOSED CYCLONE...A MORE COASTAL TRACK FOR NEW

ENGLAND WOULD MAKE SENSE. SINCE THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THE

CASE...AND THE 12Z ECMWF BACKED OFF THIS IDEA SOMEWHAT...THE 00Z

ECMWF CYCLONE TRACK ALONG THE EAST COAST IS PROBABLY TOO FAR

NORTHWEST/TOO CLOSE TO THE COAST. OTHER GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE

ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS...MOVE THIS SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE GULF

STREAM...A NATURAL BAROCLINIC ZONE/AREA OF TEMPERATURE GRADIENT

OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST...WHICH APPEARS MORE LIKELY CONSIDERING

THE FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. THE 12Z CANADIAN/12Z NOGAPS MOVE IT DUE

EAST AS IT EMERGES INTO THE ATLANTIC...TAKING NEW ENGLAND OUT OF

THE PICTURE. DETAIL ISSUES WITH MID-LEVEL CYCLONE PLACEMENT HAVE

LED TO INCREASED SPREAD OF THE LOW TRACK AS IT LEAVES THE EAST

COAST. PER PREFERENCES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND WEST LATE IN THE

PERIOD...STARTED WITH THE 00Z CANADIAN HERE...ALTHOUGH THE 00Z

ECMWF/00Z GEFS MEAN/12Z GFS ARE REASONABLE ALTERNATIVES. EITHER

WAY...WINTER WEATHER SHOULD SPREAD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS

EASTWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC

STATES...AS WELL AS SNOW SHOWERS UNDER THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL

LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THE IMPACT OF THIS

SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST REMAINS SOMEWHAT OF A

QUESTION MARK...AS THE 12Z GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY DRIED OUT OF THE

MID-ATLANTIC STATES YET INCREASED AMOUNTS IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST

NEW ENGLAND. FOR THE TIME BEING THE MORE NORTHWESTERN 00Z ECMWF

TRACK AND THE SLOW PACE OF THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION APPEAR TO BE

LOWER PROBABILITY ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS.

ROTH

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