earthlight Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Through 96 hours it's much slower than the GFS (shortwave still over the TX panhandle) and less phased..but the ridge out west is more amplified. This should be interesting to watch unfold, going to be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 20, 2010 Author Share Posted December 20, 2010 Get back on topic quick, or be gone. Do you guys think we are joking? We have had to delete several posts and 5post limit/suspend several folks already. Do you want to be five post limited or suspended? Back to 12z CURRENT model discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Day 4 12Z ECMWF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 By 102 hours the shortwave is into Northeast Texas. Big time northern stream shortwave is making it's presence known over the N Plains now. That being said..the confluent flow over the Northeast could make it a bit more difficult for this thing to climb the coast if the phase doesn't occur at an opportune time. We will see. One thing's for sure..it's much slower and has a completely different H5 solution than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Surface low is over Southern AL at 120 hours. The Northern stream is coming in hard..but def. a little later than the 00z run did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 20, 2010 Author Share Posted December 20, 2010 Surface low is over Southern AL at 120 hours. The Northern stream is coming in hard..but def. a little later than the 00z run did. Isn't the southern s/w a little slower tho? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Isn't the southern s/w a little slower tho? Yes--but the later phase allows the shortwave to gain longitude. Lots of things arguing for a solution at least slightly east of the 00z run--but who knows. When big H5 phases/captures happen like this it is often hard to analyze and extrapolate a model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Light snow into DC at 132 hours with the surface low over Southeast GA. It's turning the corner hard but it needs to hurry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 So...much...modelology. I think what folks ought to do -- and this is what I plan to do -- is turn off the computer till Wednesday night. Check the models then. If it still shows a storm, then I'd get excited. In the meantime, enjoy the shortest day of the year and upcoming holidays or something. Finally, a voice of reason! Actually most of us would love to do what you suggest, but with a possible snowstorm impending find it impossible. At this point watching the cycle to cycle trends and looking for model consensus is a useful waste of our time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Yes--but the later phase allows the shortwave to gain longitude. Lots of things arguing for a solution at least slightly east of the 00z run--but who knows. When big H5 phases/captures happen like this it is often hard to analyze and extrapolate a model. I think this run is going to look bleak for most, but it may bend due N in time to nail e NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 If there isn't something coming down the backside to sharpen that trough, I don't think I see enough to encourage self development, and this will go out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 1004 off the coast of the Carolinas at 138..its turning the corner hard but it might have missed by a few hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Sub 1000mb low off OBX at 144 hrs. Major phase ongoing at h5. If I were a betting man I'd say this run is going to come very close to being a GFS like solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 H5 capture now going at 150 hrs. 988 due east of Cape May (not close to the coast, but moving at a due north heading). Moderate precip NJ shore to NYC..LI..and SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 nice snows for parts of nc va so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 hr144 its phasing but slightly too late for southern MA. SNE looks to get crushed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Sub 984mb and directly smack over the Benchmark at 156 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 CCB develops intime to impact NYC-ENJ-LI-CT into SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I think this run is going to look bleak for most, but it may bend due N in time to nail e NE. H5 capture now going at 150 hrs. 988 due east of Cape May (not close to the coast, but moving at a due north heading). Moderate precip NJ shore to NYC..LI..and SNE. hr144 its phasing but slightly too late for southern MA. SNE looks to get crushed! Yea, that is what it looked like to me eary on. NBD for those who got brushed....just noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 In the 970's east of Boston at 162 hrs..SNE is buried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 woah, it goes BOOM. good snows from coastal NJ threw LI heading NE to SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 20, 2010 Author Share Posted December 20, 2010 Seems sorta GFS-esque with the lighter stuff down way of PHL DC RIC....any qpf numbers yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Boy the Euro slows this down. We're almost no better that we were yesterday from a perspective of # days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 looks like DC and IAD are toast on the euro run. Barely .10 of qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Seems sorta GFS-esque with the lighter stuff down way of PHL DC RIC....any qpf numbers yet? dude..we get nothing. maybe a dusting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 QPF gradient is W to E with the capture. DCA: 0.10 (maybe generous) PHL- 0.15 NYC: 0.60 (0.50 line over EWR) Montauk: 1.00" BOS: 1.25" (hard to tell given prior QPF) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.