12z Models 12/20/2010

[Terpeast]

Here is the rule of thumb that usually works for me

1) If the euro shows a storm and the GFS dosent, it usually ends up that there is not a storm

2) If the GFS shows a storm and the EURO dosent, there will not be a storm

3) If the euro and the gfs both show a storm,the euro depiction of it usually ends up correct

i think we are looking at #3

Depends on the time frame you're looking at. If I remember correctly, at some point the Euro showed a hit and the GFS went OTS for the 12/19/10 system.

[Ian]

Depends on the time frame you're looking at. If I remember correctly, at some point the Euro showed a hit and the GFS went OTS for the 12/19/10 system.

very briefly in the long range then one or two burbs in the short range

[Ji]

Depends on the time frame you're looking at. If I remember correctly, at some point the Euro showed a hit and the GFS went OTS for the 12/19/10 system.

i actually meant if they both showed hits..the euro depiction is usually what wins out

[CAPE]

Do you even know what your looking at? Sure the Euro is a slight outlier but not as much as it was when comparing it to the 12z models. The GGEM looks to me like the 00z GFS and comprises the SE cluster of solutions.

and actually the HPC discussion from this morning did not favor the idea of the storm being NW and close to the coast and destroying SNE...they preferred a more southerly offshore track siding with the ensemble means of the Euro and GFS over the op of either model. they seemed skeptical this thing would even ride up the coast and hit NE at all.

[blizzardof09]

quick question, i ve heard alot these past few days about how this storm is easier to have happen as depicted by the euro than this past weekends storm, id like to know if and why that is. the only reasoning i can come up with is that nao is not that overpowering as it was before therefore giving the storm a chance to phase sooner and come up the coast, thank you.

[Dcwx]

What is the furthest north the ggem gets with the precip? Central va or dc?

[IsentropicLift]

and actually the HPC discussion from this morning did not favor the idea of the storm being NW and close to the coast and destroying SNE...they preferred a more southerly offshore track siding with the ensemble means of the Euro and GFS over the op of either model. they seemed skeptical this thing would even ride up the coast and hit NE at all.

I'm not saying that the 00z Euro will verify but its not as big of an outlier as some are saying here. The NOAGPS is on board now and the GFS took massive steps in the right direction. Take a look at this link http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/emchurr/tcgen/ it shows the 12z Surface low tracks. Click on the GFS and then compare it to 06z. Much smoother track and just NW of the Benchmark. I'm not quite understanding why some people on here are saying that the Euro is all by itself.

[IsentropicLift]

quick question, i ve heard alot these past few days about how this storm is easier to have happen as depicted by the euro than this past weekends storm, id like to know if and why that is. the only reasoning i can come up with is that nao is not that overpowering as it was before therefore giving the storm a chance to phase sooner and come up the coast, thank you.

Look back at the 00z model discussion. You will find your answers their

[tombo82685]

What is the furthest north the ggem gets with the precip? Central va or dc?

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_12z/cmcloop.html

[CAPE]

What is the furthest north the ggem gets with the precip? Central va or dc?

pretty much a complete miss except some light precip up to southern part of VA and lower Delmarva.

[Dcwx]

Thanks tombo, will have to see if this starts a further se trend. Doesn't look to bring anything to dc. I think last night the ggem was the first to show a coastal, followed by the euro.

[OSUmetstud]

and actually the HPC discussion from this morning did not favor the idea of the storm being NW and close to the coast and destroying SNE...they preferred a more southerly offshore track siding with the ensemble means of the Euro and GFS over the op of either model. they seemed skeptical this thing would even ride up the coast and hit NE at all.

The HPC prelim discussion from this morning also thought the 00z ECMWF was too slow with the SW energy...when the 12z GFS trended very close to that idea.

[blizzardof09]

Look back at the 00z model discussion. You will find your answers their

thank you noreaster85 much appreciated

[JMU2004]

pretty much a complete miss except some light precip up to southern part of VA and lower Delmarva.

this is wrong. CGEM has 27 mm liquid for RIC. All snow

[PhineasC]

except the Nogaps, of all models being consistently progressive and ots with these kinds of systems, becomes a decent hit for us

gonna' be a real, real long week

I think the NOGAPS being so wound-up says something. With the GFS and GGEM so progressive you'd think the NOGAPS would be super-supressed.

[Ji]

I think the NOGAPS being so wound-up says something. With the GFS and GGEM so progressive you'd think the NOGAPS would be super-supressed.

Whenever i have seen Nogaps with a solution of 2 that destroyed the east coast, there has usually been a storm. That Nogaps run is alarmingly good for us

[IsentropicLift]

I think the NOGAPS being so wound-up says something. With the GFS and GGEM so progressive you'd think the NOGAPS would be super-supressed.

Perhaps you might be better off sitting back and reading for awhile...it was a good place to be having the previous runs of the NOGAPS well OTS with its fast bias because since it was close to the GFS prior runs it showed that perhaps the GFS was too fast. Now that the GFS has slowed down a tad and that the NOGAPS has as well it still indicates that the GFS is still slightly too progresive...but even as it stands, the 12z GFS was just NW of the benchmark and its in perfect position.

[Guest someguy]

With the GGEM south Euro is all alone...

NOT THE EURO ENSEMBLE

that has always been wayy south

[CAPE]

this is wrong. CGEM has 27 mm liquid for RIC. All snow

sorry, by southern part i meant southern half of VA...Richmond would see some light snow taken literally.

[JMU2004]

sorry, by southern part i meant southern half of VA...Richmond would see some light snow taken literally.

how is 27 mm of qpf light snow?

[Inudaw]

how is 27 mm of qpf light snow?

That post was a lie. The 12z cmc does NOT give 27 mm of precip to Richmond. ^^: Most of the precip does indeed stay south of Richmond on the 12z CMC run.

[WidreMann]

So...much...modelology.

I think what folks ought to do -- and this is what I plan to do -- is turn off the computer till Wednesday night. Check the models then. If it still shows a storm, then I'd get excited. In the meantime, enjoy the shortest day of the year and upcoming holidays or something.

[OSUmetstud]

well yes that is the JB way of thinking ... its gets "points " for having something

but I am not sure who many points for being wrong

And the Euro was wrong too at the same range...

[earthlight]

So far the Euro is similar in the strength of the shortwave reaching the CA coast--but still slower than the GFS by a good bit.

[earthlight]

By 72 hours the Euro is much slower than the GFS and much more amplified with the 500mb heights over the Plains. The shortwave is closed at 558dm over Northern AZ.

[weatherweather]

By 72 hours the Euro is much slower than the GFS and much more amplified with the 500mb heights over the Plains. The shortwave is closed at 558dm over Northern AZ.

Isnt that exactly the bias its known for?

[CAPE]

how is 27 mm of qpf light snow?

i am not sure where you are getting 27 mm of qpf...on the ewall site looking at the animations clearly south central VA is on the northern fringe so i highly doubt an inch of liquid equivalent is what you are looking at there. an inch of snow..maybe.

[LakeEffectKing]

"Storm mode" guys....come on.

It'll be interesting to see what ultimately happens to the "little PV" that drops in from the NNE late in the game....I would think this is pretty poorly sampled at this time as it becomes more important the slower the ejecting southwest wave is being modeled.

[Organizing Low]

"Storm mode" guys....come on.

It'll be interesting to see what ultimately happens to the "little PV" that drops in from the NNE late in the game....I would think this is pretty poorly sampled at this time.

considering that we have seen the PV shift hundreds, if not a thousand miles from one run to the next, within 100 hours of an event.........

yes.

[CAPE]

That post was a lie. The 12z cmc does NOT give 27 mm of precip to Richmond. ^^: Most of the precip does indeed stay south of Richmond on the 12z CMC run.

Thanks for the verification.