12z Models 12/20/2010

[Dr No]

Nogaps is a freaking monster. Take a look over at Navy's site.

[AnthonyS]

I'd like to see the W-NOAM longwave/500mb ridge build a bit further to the west. Most of the KU east coast cyclones developed when ridge axis positions along the west coast were further west than depicted via the 12Z GFS.

[Guest someguy]

GFS is fine. This is usually the range the GFS gets stupidly SE. If GGEM and Euro remain in sync for a big storm, I won't worry.

No the GFS is NOT fine but the rest of your post is

this is often the time frame when the GFS gets goofy

and folks need to see that the euro and euro ensembles are the way to go here

[KEITH L.I]

Nogaps is a freaking monster. Take a look over at Navy's site.

well if Nogaps is a hit(which is always out to sea)..put itin the books

[JayPSU]

well if Nogaps is a hit(which is always out to sea)..put itin the books

If the Nocraps is a big hit for the east coast this far out, I'd be feeling good if I lived in Pittsburgh.

[Quasievil]

No the GFS is NOT fine but the rest of your post is

this is often the time frame when the GDS gets stupid

and folks need to see that the euro and euro ensembles are the way to go here

So I assume you're not buying the GooFS yet? Can you tell us why?

[ptb127]

I agree!! It's a great place to be, it's good to see the GFS cave to the euro

Not a bad spot right now if you ask me, especially with the GGEM and Euro tucked in just west of the GFS OP.

[stormtracker]

96 hours GGEM

[PhineasC]

No the GFS is NOT fine but the rest of your post is

this is often the time frame when the GDS gets stupid

and folks need to see that the euro and euro ensembles are the way to go here

I think we are in agreement. By "fine" I mean that the GFS just looks stupid right now. It will fold eventually.

[SACRUS]

GGEM

[stormtracker]

108

120

[Guest someguy]

SEE PINNED THREAD made yesterday

http://www.americanw...-be-considered/

00Z DEC 20 GFS blinked

MODEL 1 says ABC and it said that foir 12 straight runs ( model 1 is GFS)

MODEL 2 says XYZ

MODEL 3 says XYZ

MODEL 4 says XYZ

MODEL 5 says XYZ

MODEL1 ensembles over the 12 Model runs do NOT say ABC... they say XYZ

MODEL 2 ensembles over the past 8 model runs all say XYZ

MODEL 3 ensembles all say XYZ for 8 runs in a row

then MODEL 1 new runs out and says XYZ

what does that tell us ?

Model has a clue or the that Model 1 is a Piece of crap?

[stormtracker]

Yeah, that 144 is an old map

[SACRUS]

Yeah, that 144 is an old map

I clicked the 00z mistakenly. I deleted.

[stormtracker]

132 color maps...looks like its gonna head OTS from there

[Edge Weather]

12 UTC NOGAPS

[SACRUS]

132 color maps...looks like its gonna head OTS from there

Yep

[OSUmetstud]

00Z DEC 20 GFS blinked

MODEL 1 says ABC and it said that foir 12 straight runs ( model 1 is GFS)

MODEL 2 says XYZ

MODEL 3 says XYZ

MODEL 4 says XYZ

MODEL 5 says XYZ

MODEL1 ensembles over the 12 Model runs do NOT say ABC... they say XYZ

MODEL 2 ensembles over the past 8 model runs all say XYZ

MODEL 3 ensembles all say XYZ for 8 runs in a row

then MODEL 1 new runs out and says XYZ

what does that tell us ?

Model has a clue or the that Model 1 is a Piece of crap?

GFS had the idea of the storm before the Euro...that's got to count for something. The GFS had it a day earlier...while the Euro had a very suppressed look up until what, 1-2 days ago?

[LVblizzard]

Even though the GGEM is out to sea for most of us, the trough dug more than 0z and that's a positive trend.

[wxmeddler]

132 color maps...looks like its gonna head OTS from there

Well, there is no doubt why. Look at the ridge axis position.

[jm1220]

A ridge axis from Albuquerque to Williston, ND is very rarely good for snow here.

[Dr No]

Even though the GGEM is out to seafor most of us, the trough dug more than 0z and that's a positive trend,

Closed 500mb low over Cincy, too

[PhineasC]

With the GGEM south Euro is all alone...

[mitchnick]

With the GGEM south Euro is all alone...

except the Nogaps, of all models being consistently progressive and ots with these kinds of systems, becomes a decent hit for us

gonna' be a real, real long week

[SACRUS]

With the GGEM south Euro is all alone...

Did anyone post the uk?

[IsentropicLift]

HUH???

The GFS has been CONSISTENTLY WRONG with this system...did you READ the pinned thread?

The GFS came into much better agreement with the 00z EC this run with regards to both timing and surface low track. This lends confidence that they are working towards a solution which will provide accumulating snow sometime on Christmas day. How much remains the question but seeing the 12z NOGAPS come on board makes me feel all warm and fuzzy inside. And with regards to the GGEM being OTS? It's the worst model I've ever seen with regards to QPF coverage.

[blizzardof09]

after this past weekends storm and how it was handled with the models, it looks like the only model or the right model to go with is it the ecmwf and its ensembles. currently its being fairly consistent and last week it was probably the most consistent model ( except for the two blips it had) nailed the ots solution for like 5 days straight. the only thing id kind of be worried about is the euro's s/w bias, i dont know if some people could confirm its bias though because ive heard it multiple times

[Ian]

I don't care...even pro mets should know how to READ

see ya

[Ji]

Here is the rule of thumb that usually works for me

1) If the euro shows a storm and the GFS dosent, it usually ends up that there is not a storm

2) If the GFS shows a storm and the EURO dosent, there will not be a storm

3) If the euro and the gfs both show a storm,the euro depiction of it usually ends up correct

i think we are looking at #3

[IsentropicLift]

With the GGEM south Euro is all alone...

Do you even know what your looking at? Sure the Euro is a slight outlier but not as much as it was when comparing it to the 12z models. The GGEM looks to me like the 00z GFS and comprises the SE cluster of solutions.