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12z Models 12/20/2010


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We're dealing with a very tricky and sensitive type of cyclogenesis over the Plains, as well as some issues with phasing. No doubt the pattern over the East will help bring it to the coast, but I wouldn't expect any respectable continuity until that feedback-type cyclogenesis over the plains gets resolved and the existence/strength of the waves over the Canadian Prairies is hashed out.

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CCB develops pretty much from NJ on Northeast..big snows there.

A huge step towards the ECMWF aloft and at the surface.

Yup, looks great for them. For us (PHL south) On the GFS, we need a more organized H5 map. But I really think the GFS is having some issues with that down here, especially in light of the Euro's QPF down this way.

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Didnt the euro last week show a big storm for this past weekend? Then lost it as it just went ots? Is there anything in the telecommunications that this could happen all over again?

Much much more support this time around and a completely different setup synoptically speaking. When you add in the 12z GFS their is no reason to doubt the Euro's solution. The GFS looks very similar to the 00z EC ensemble mean.

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It's coming up the coast at 135 hours..but so far just a bit too far east to affect the I-95 corridor. We haven't seen the CCB development yet, either.

Ominous trend towards the Euro. I still think this run hooks back to hit portions of NJ/NYC/LI/SNE.

Problem that I see with the GFS is the lack of a 50/50 feature:

gfs_500_138m.gif

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Light snow all of Christmas day for NOVA/DC. I would take that in a heartbeat. GFS has taken a very big step towards the Euro.

So would I. Light snow won't affect my flight into DCA too much, maybe a minor delay. An all out blizzard would have me spending the night at the airport waiting for the next plane into DC. But hey, I'll take one for the team! ;)

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So would I. Light snow won't affect my flight into DCA too much, maybe a minor delay. An all out blizzard would have me spending the night at the airport waiting for the next plane into DC. But hey, I'll take one for the team! ;)

Euro solution is best for all

major snows that don't start until Christmas Day 5PM or later

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Euro solution is best for all

major snows that don't start until Christmas Day 5PM or later

I'm scheduled to arrive in DCA just before 4 pm xmas day. Maybe, JUST maybe, I'll catch this storm in the nick of time. We'll see how the models get the timing of this storm, and so far they have been trending a little slower with each run.

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