csnavywx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 We're dealing with a very tricky and sensitive type of cyclogenesis over the Plains, as well as some issues with phasing. No doubt the pattern over the East will help bring it to the coast, but I wouldn't expect any respectable continuity until that feedback-type cyclogenesis over the plains gets resolved and the existence/strength of the waves over the Canadian Prairies is hashed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 20, 2010 Author Share Posted December 20, 2010 CCB develops pretty much from NJ on Northeast..big snows there. A huge step towards the ECMWF aloft and at the surface. Yup, looks great for them. For us (PHL south) On the GFS, we need a more organized H5 map. But I really think the GFS is having some issues with that down here, especially in light of the Euro's QPF down this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 SNE. getting hit hard at 150 sub 976mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Please educate me as to what "CCB development" is. Thanks! CCB is a Cold Conveyor Belt. Here's a great article with some graphics at the bottom end of it. http://www.cimms.ou.edu/~schultz/ccb/ccb.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 foot plus for boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Not a bad spot right now if you ask me, especially with the GGEM and Euro tucked in just west of the GFS OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 A solid 2-4" for DC and it won't interfere with my trip to Grandmas.. win-win A solid 1" - 2" for LHV. I'll take it, hate traveling during the holidays when the roads are miserable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Didnt the euro last week show a big storm for this past weekend? Then lost it as it just went ots? Is there anything in the telecommunications that this could happen all over again? Much much more support this time around and a completely different setup synoptically speaking. When you add in the 12z GFS their is no reason to doubt the Euro's solution. The GFS looks very similar to the 00z EC ensemble mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Thinking the GFS is a little light on the QPF but paying attention to the 500mb s/w evolution 24-48 hours before the supposed coastal development - this factor will determine amounts DC-BWI-PHL and south. North of that, signs are pointing towards a SNE bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Like the trends, DC N should get blitzed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveB Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Northern stream phase beginning to occur at 96 hours...a good bit slower than 06z. I would respectfully disagree and say the phasing doesn't actually happen until about 132 hours on this run of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 It's coming up the coast at 135 hours..but so far just a bit too far east to affect the I-95 corridor. We haven't seen the CCB development yet, either. Ominous trend towards the Euro. I still think this run hooks back to hit portions of NJ/NYC/LI/SNE. Problem that I see with the GFS is the lack of a 50/50 feature: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Like where we are here. (everyone). GFS doesn't show a bomb yet. This far out it's a death trap. Looking forward to seeing what the Euro has later today. BIG run I think to spot real trends. Does it phase later or continue the slower solution. Brought extra underwear with me today just in case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Like the trends, DC N should get blitzed. Cant make judgement on that yet, trends are good but the point of the phase will be critical for PHI-DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 none of the models will have the correct position of the redevelopment, CBB, etc. at this range everyone from VA on N & E remain strongly in the game for mod hit+ considering historical model biases, GFS looks fine at this range from RIC-BOS great run folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Problem that I see with the GFS is the lack of a 50/50 feature: The 50/50 feature is there up to 126 hrs, but that's just enough time to hold in the cold air once the storm develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Light snow all of Christmas day for NOVA/DC. I would take that in a heartbeat. GFS has taken a very big step towards the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 admittedly, my main desire to have this be a big hit is the theory that the winter will remember the weather in DEC be a shame for several potential storms to be misses the entire month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Remember how all the models eventually came back towards what the EURO showed for this last storm that never panned out? I think that's going to happen with this storm - the EURO is going to win out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Light snow all of Christmas day for NOVA/DC. I would take that in a heartbeat. GFS has taken a very big step towards the Euro. So would I. Light snow won't affect my flight into DCA too much, maybe a minor delay. An all out blizzard would have me spending the night at the airport waiting for the next plane into DC. But hey, I'll take one for the team! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 another coastal for the 30th miller looks miller b then here comes the big dog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 So would I. Light snow won't affect my flight into DCA too much, maybe a minor delay. An all out blizzard would have me spending the night at the airport waiting for the next plane into DC. But hey, I'll take one for the team! Euro solution is best for all major snows that don't start until Christmas Day 5PM or later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Where would we need to see a phase for a DC-PHI-NYC storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 GFS is fine. This is usually the range the GFS gets stupidly SE. If GGEM and Euro remain in sync for a big storm, I won't worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Euro solution is best for all major snows that don't start until Christmas Day 5PM or later I'm scheduled to arrive in DCA just before 4 pm xmas day. Maybe, JUST maybe, I'll catch this storm in the nick of time. We'll see how the models get the timing of this storm, and so far they have been trending a little slower with each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Man, the long range on the GFS is cold and stormy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 another coastal for the 30th miller looks miller b then here comes the big dog Seeing (on the 48hr NAM) is believing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 GFS is fine. This is usually the range the GFS gets stupidly SE. If GGEM and Euro remain in sync for a big storm, I won't worry. Agreed. GGEM is stated and out to 36, we'll know in a few how it is trending, if any. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 GFS is slower this run too. i know we want it to slow down but how much slower can we really accept? every slower solution, the 50/50 Low might not hang in there long enuff. unless the clipper gets caught up in the flow midweek and re-position itself into the 50/50.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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