stormtracker Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Let's see if we can get some clues from the 12z NAM about the Christmas weekend potential. Remember folks, let's try to keep all posts on topic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Looks like 12z NAM is a bit slower than the 6z GFS because I see it holding back some energy at 72 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Looks like 12z NAM is a bit slower than the 6z GFS because I see it holding back some energy at 72 hrs. Yeah...still a bit faster than the 00z Euro though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Yeah...still a bit faster than the 00z Euro though. The Euro is an outlier with its speed but slower IS better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 The Euro is an outlier with its speed but slower IS better. The op 00z euro has support from it's own ensembles and the 00z GFS ensemble. I'd personally go with the a Euro/Euro Ensemble solution at 72 hours rather than a GFS Op or a NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 The op 00z euro has support from it's own ensembles and the 00z GFS ensemble. I'd personally go with the a Euro/Euro Ensemble solution at 72 hours rather than a GFS Op or a NAM. I certainly won't disagree with you there. I'm just waiting for the NAM/GFS to play catch up. Seems the NAM might be heading there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Looks like 12z NAM is a bit slower than the 6z GFS because I see it holding back some energy at 72 hrs. It is, however, faster ejecting that SW energy than it's own 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 20, 2010 Author Share Posted December 20, 2010 NAM looks like a pretty good set up at 84 hours. Of course we know how NAM is at that range, but it's not like it's on its own here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 NAM looks like a pretty good set up at 84 hours. Of course we know how NAM is at that range, but it's not like it's on its own here. Its about as similar at 84 hours to the 06Z GFS at 90 hours as you can ever ask of the NAM at the end of its range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 From what I have gleaned from reading page after page of great expert analysis is that slower = a better chance of phasing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Its about as similar at 84 hours to the 06Z GFS at 90 hours as you can ever ask of the NAM at the end of its range. This. It can suffer from a problem where the entire height field is shifted slower and amped compared to the GFS (baroclinic_instability pointed this out in a previous topic), and that appears to be happening here slightly, but much less than the horrible 00Z run. Regardless, when that slight shift is taken out, it's basically a carbon copy of the 06Z GFS at 500mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 What country in Europe is the 12Z GFS going to have the storm in? Anyone who has followed these things the last 5-10 years knows this is the GFS's "I gotta disagree as much as possible with the Euro" range.right now between 96-150 hours or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 What country in Europe is the 12Z GFS going to have the storm in? Anyone who has followed these things the last 5-10 years knows this is the GFS's "I gotta disagree as much as possible with the Euro" range.right now between 96-150 hours or so. The GFS has initialized, I guess we will have the answer in about 30 mins or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Identical to 6z out to 18hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Identical to 6z out to 18hr. Ditto to 30hrs on the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Pacific energy is slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 pretty surprised how close the low position is on the nam-12z vs gfs-06z , albeit 6 hrs off gfs Those maps aren't even valid at the same time.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Pacific energy is slower. yea at hr 48 it matches the 0z euro pretty close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Seems about 6 hrs slower with the SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Pacific energy is slower. Almost perfectly 6hrs slower than the 00z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Its trying to bring a little light snow into NOVA with the clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Those maps aren't even valid at the same time.... i know, just pointing out its slower on the nam, but the low position is almost the same track through that time track simular, speed difference though. maybe im just stupid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 H5 at 48 hrs in SW is further south then 0Z at 60 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 20, 2010 Author Share Posted December 20, 2010 Yeah, compared to 0z, it is farther south and the blocking looks a bit stronger. This is comparing 60 hrs vs 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 s/w is a good bit slower/stronger compared to 0/6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Thru 60, GFS is similar to 00Z Euro (compared to 72 hr panel) in placement/orientation of the trough in the SW (and the northern s/w), but Euro had already closed it off by that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 This run also looks colder to my untrained eye? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Northern stream phase beginning to occur at 96 hours...a good bit slower than 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 i know, just pointing out its slower on the nam, but the low position is almost the same track through that time track simular, speed difference though. maybe im just stupid It's more meaningful and easier to see if you post maps that are valid at the same time. Just trying to help! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 GFS slightly faster than Euro at 00Z 12/24. Not much, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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