Central/Western Medium-Long Range Discussion

[Powerball]

Officially, today's high at DFW was 99*F.

[Powerball]

Verbatim, the 12s GFS would be a nice ROF setup for our region.

[lookingnorth]

It looks like the hot Northwest/cool Southern Plains setup will continue for the next couple weeks.

[raindancewx]

The look on the CFS for July has been fairly consistent with the big positive March WPO correlation to July for a while now. Not to mention the May -NAO correlation to July.

[CheeselandSkies]

So, still baking in the interior Northwest.

[Powerball]

I'm going to make a bold prediction and say that DFW won't see a single 100*F+ day this year (the average is 20 days).

I hope I'm wrong. 

[Powerball]

On 6/26/2021 at 1:56 PM, Powerball said:

I'm going to make a bold prediction and say that DFW won't see a single 100*F+ day this year (the average is 20 days).

I hope I'm wrong. 

Yeah, this won't age well. Going down in flames (figuratively and literally). 

[lookingnorth]

On 7/22/2021 at 8:03 PM, Powerball said:

Yeah, this won't age well. Going down in flames (figuratively and literally). 

It still hasn't happened in OKC. It would be the first time since 2004 if we make it the whole summer without hitting 100.

[Powerball]

21 hours ago, lookingnorth said:

It still hasn't happened in OKC. It would be the first time since 2004 if we make it the whole summer without hitting 100.

 

How many other years, besidea 2004, has OKC not hit 100*F+?

DFW has only had 6 so far, and they all occured in that late July / early August period.

I now know better than to say it won't happen for sure, especially with the help of subsidence behind Ida next week, but it is getting increasingly less likely that DFW will see any more 100*F+ days this year.

[lookingnorth]

On 8/27/2021 at 11:56 AM, Powerball said:

 

How many other years, besidea 2004, has OKC not hit 100*F+?

DFW has only had 6 so far, and they all occured in that late July / early August period.

I now know better than to say it won't happen for sure, especially with the help of subsidence behind Ida next week, but it is getting increasingly less likely that DFW will see any more 100*F+ days this year.

19 other years

[andyhb]

Looking towards the earlier part of next week, I wouldn't be surprised if we see another elevated period of severe potential relative to climatology for the Plains and perhaps eastward. Pattern looks quite conducive to moisture return and potentially quite anomalous moisture return in front of another large scale trough developing in the west on ensemble guidance.

[OKTWISTER]

OKLAHOMA OCTOBER TORNADO RECORD SET: MORE TO COME?

 

 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0318 AM CDT Thu Oct 21 2021

   Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   (Day 4) Models are trending toward better agreement and have
   demonstrated some run-to-run consistency regarding the evolution of
   a southern-stream shortwave trough forecast to amplify as it
   approaches the southern and central High Plains Saturday night. This
   feature will move through the central/southern Plains Sunday before
   reaching the middle/lower MS Valley Sunday evening. There are still
   some model differences, particularly with regard to the amplitude
   and speed of this system. 

   Deepening lee low should be situated over central KS by 12Z Sunday
   with a trailing cold front extending southwestward into western TX.
   A warm front will stretch eastward from the low through northern KS
   and into central MO. Partially modified Gulf air will advect through
   the warm sector beneath steeper mid-level lapse rates resulting in
   moderate instability during the afternoon. A capping inversion will
   delay surface-based thunderstorm initiation until mid afternoon when
   storms will likely develop along the cold front across central
   eastern KS into eastern OK as well as farther east along the warm
   conveyor belt into the lower MS Valley. Vertical wind profiles will
   support organized storms including supercells with potential for all
   severe hazards. Given some lingering model differences, will only
   introduce 15% category for this outlook, but higher probabilities
   might be warranted with better model agreement in later updates.

   (Day 5) - A severe threat will probably persist as this feature
   continues into the TN Valley region Monday and possibly the Middle
   Atlantic region Tuesday. However, model difference become more
   substantial at this time frame, so will defer introduction of any
   categorical risk areas to possibly the next update.

   (Days 6-7) - Models including most ensemble members are in
   reasonable agreement regarding the approach of an upper trough into
   the Plains with robust moisture return toward the early and middle
   part of next week. If these trends continue, a severe risk area may
   be introduced for portions of the central and southern Plains in the
   next 4-8 outlook update.