thunderbird12 Posted May 6, 2021 Share Posted May 6, 2021 Saturday would look a lot more interesting with upper 60s to ~70F dewpoints across the warm sector in OK/southern KS, instead of the low-mid 60s currently progged by most guidance. Cap strength is going to be a problem for storms moving off of the dryline, unless the current guidance is underestimating low-level moisture return. Even if the current progs end up verifying, there could still be an interesting storm or two near the triple point and/or warm front, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 6, 2021 Share Posted May 6, 2021 Looks like DFW's average highs for JJA and September increased roughly 1*F for each month with the 1991 - 2020 normals. It seems April and May's average went down 2-3*F though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 8, 2021 Share Posted May 8, 2021 Oh shit!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted May 9, 2021 Share Posted May 9, 2021 On 5/5/2021 at 10:10 PM, Powerball said: Looks like DFW's average highs for JJA and September increased roughly 1*F for each month with the 1991 - 2020 normals. It seems April and May's average went down 2-3*F though. Here is a table I created highlighting the differences between our new, current normals and 1981-2010. Low temperatures increased the most which was interesting. Here is the table highlighting key precip differences. Our "wet season" is actually drier than the old normals, with 7/12 extreme precip events occurring in the past 30 years alone (not shown). 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 24, 2021 Share Posted May 24, 2021 If May 2021 ended today in DFW, it would tie for the 14th coldest on record (with an average of 70.5*F). And given the current forecast, there is a reasonable possibility it can still end up a top 20 coldest when it's over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 26, 2021 Share Posted May 26, 2021 What a difference a day with plenty of late May sunlight makes! DFW is overachieving by a few degrees and has made it to 90*F (3rd for the year). About got damn time... Unfortunately, it won't last long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 27, 2021 Share Posted May 27, 2021 As of 3pm, today marks the 4th 90*F day of the year at DFW. It's going to be the last one for a while, unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 29, 2021 Share Posted May 29, 2021 Welp, June's looking to be just as bad as May... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 29, 2021 Share Posted May 29, 2021 6 minutes ago, Powerball said: Welp, June's looking to be just as bad as May... Even Joe Public is starting to notice this unsually crappy weather we've been having, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted May 29, 2021 Share Posted May 29, 2021 ^lol maybe this means the summer death ridge will be delayed and us chasers will have more opportunities to get out this season. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 31, 2021 Share Posted May 31, 2021 On 5/29/2021 at 2:46 PM, stormdragonwx said: ^lol maybe this means the summer death ridge will be delayed and us chasers will have more opportunities to get out this season. ^^^That's one way to put a positive spin on it, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 31, 2021 Share Posted May 31, 2021 Oh goody... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 1, 2021 Share Posted June 1, 2021 For DFW, May 2020 ended -2.2*F below normal. Unfortunately, it was still 0.3*F shy of making the top 20 coldest list (the two 90*F+ days in the last full week messed that up). That said, this was the coldest May since 2015, and the 2nd coldest in 24 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 7, 2021 Share Posted June 7, 2021 Per usual for this season, Dallas still can't even do strong/severe t'storms right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted June 7, 2021 Share Posted June 7, 2021 43 minutes ago, Powerball said: Per usual for this season, Dallas still can't even do strong/severe t'storms right... Looks like most of it hit south of Dallas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted June 7, 2021 Share Posted June 7, 2021 5% Tor added for today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 7, 2021 Share Posted June 7, 2021 2 hours ago, weatherextreme said: Looks like most of it hit south of Dallas I'm tempted to make a complaint thread. My posts about Dallas' weather alone would fill it up, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 9, 2021 Share Posted June 9, 2021 After crawling to 89*F over BKN sky cover, the stratus deck has *THICKENED* and the temp has fallen back down to 86*F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 10, 2021 Share Posted June 10, 2021 DFW snuck up to a very late day high of 93*F after the clouds finally broke out between 4pm and 5pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 10, 2021 Share Posted June 10, 2021 4 hours ago, Powerball said: DFW snuck up to a very late day high of 93*F after the clouds finally broke out between 4pm and 5pm. BTW, ^^^this was the first day since 5/27 (13 days) with an observed high that was actually above average (currentlyb91*F). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 11, 2021 Share Posted June 11, 2021 Well that didn't take long. Hi-Res models have a MCS diving southward through DFW early tomorrow morning. Naturally, there can only be one outcome (decaying stratiform rain then socked in cloud debris for Saturday). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 12, 2021 Share Posted June 12, 2021 Clouds yet again cleared out around noon and today's high at DFW was 94*F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Witness Protection Program Posted June 12, 2021 Share Posted June 12, 2021 Still dive bombing from Kansas, has widened out and is now stretched from past Lawton to Henryetta, OK. Keeps blowing through 30% chance of rain areas and widening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Witness Protection Program Posted June 12, 2021 Share Posted June 12, 2021 https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=fwd&wwa=severe thunderstorm warning Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 440 AM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021 The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Montague County in north central Texas... Cooke County in north central Texas... * Until 545 AM CDT. * At 436 AM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Wilson to 7 miles northeast of Grady to near Terral, moving southeast at 40 mph. HAZARD...65 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Multiple automated weather sites in southern Oklahoma have measured 55 mph to 65 mph winds. IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to roofs, siding, and trees. * Locations impacted include... Gainesville, Bowie, Nocona, Muenster, St. Jo, Lindsay, Callisburg, Forestburg, Sunset, Stoneburg, Lake Kiowa, Ray Roberts Park Johnson Branch and Valley View. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 12, 2021 Share Posted June 12, 2021 11 hours ago, Powerball said: Clouds yet again cleared out around noon and today's high at DFW was 94*F Well I guess the MCS didn't weaken as fast as I thought, lol. Waking up to a decent line of non-severe t'storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 12, 2021 Share Posted June 12, 2021 3 hours ago, Witness Protection Program said: Still dive bombing from Kansas, has widened out and is now stretched from past Lawton to Henryetta, OK. Keeps blowing through 30% chance of rain areas and widening. Yeah, so much for that 10% chance of rain, lol. I suspect the 90*F+ high today ain't going to happen either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 12, 2021 Share Posted June 12, 2021 18 minutes ago, Powerball said: Yeah, so much for that 10% chance of rain, lol. I suspect the 90*F+ high today ain't going to happen either. Correction: The line decayed as soon as it reached the Dallas County border. Not even going to get the benefit of a heavy/torrential downpour from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 12, 2021 Share Posted June 12, 2021 21 hours ago, Powerball said: Well that didn't take long. Hi-Res models have a MCS diving southward through DFW early tomorrow morning. Naturally, there can only be one outcome (decaying stratiform rain then socked in cloud debris for Saturday). ^^^Right on the money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 13, 2021 Share Posted June 13, 2021 Oh dear god, make it stop.. 000 FXUS64 KFWD 131106 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 606 AM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Today and Monday/ Another decaying complex of storms has continued to progress southeastward toward North Texas. While the vigor of this complex is much less than that of last night, it has overachieved as a large cold pool has allowed it to progress quickly to the southeast. While it does appear that most of the complex will dissipate completely prior to its arrival into North Texas, there`s enough of a risk that 20-30 PoP have been advertised near and north of the US HWY 380 corridor. For some areas, gusty winds are possible as outflow continues to scoot east and southeastward. Otherwise, some patchy fog has developed within the lower Trinity River Valley across portions of Henderson, Anderson, Navarro and Freestone counties. Visibility may fall down to near 2 miles in spots. Fog will dissipate quickly after sunrise. In the near term...I increased sky coverage for a majority of the area as the cirrus canopy from the decaying complex overspreads the area. I feel confident that this cloud cover will thin enough such that highs in the low to mid 90s are still achievable. If not---then MaxT grids will need to be nudged downward. This afternoon, it appears that the risk for additional showers and thunderstorms to develop has increased from originally thought. Radar imagery from western Oklahoma shows a well defined mesoscale convective vortex (MCV). Short term high-resolution model guidance has resolved this feature well and advertises an increase in showers/storms generally west of I-35. I`ve cautiously nudged PoPs upward for late this afternoon and into the evening hours given the poor performance of guidance over the past several days. However, with the MCV quite apparent, I do have confidence that showers/storms will develop somewhere across the region. Given the abundance of moisture and thus instability, a small cluster may evolve and dive southward out of Oklahoma---steered along the eastern periphery of the mid-level ridge. The severe weather risk doesn`t appear overly high given the paltry deep layer shear values; however, daytime heating may promote steep low-level lapse rates and thus a risk for strong to near-severe caliber wind gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 13, 2021 Share Posted June 13, 2021 8 hours ago, Powerball said: Oh dear god, make it stop.. 000 FXUS64 KFWD 131106 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 606 AM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Today and Monday/ Another decaying complex of storms has continued to progress southeastward toward North Texas. While the vigor of this complex is much less than that of last night, it has overachieved as a large cold pool has allowed it to progress quickly to the southeast. While it does appear that most of the complex will dissipate completely prior to its arrival into North Texas, there`s enough of a risk that 20-30 PoP have been advertised near and north of the US HWY 380 corridor. For some areas, gusty winds are possible as outflow continues to scoot east and southeastward. Otherwise, some patchy fog has developed within the lower Trinity River Valley across portions of Henderson, Anderson, Navarro and Freestone counties. Visibility may fall down to near 2 miles in spots. Fog will dissipate quickly after sunrise. In the near term...I increased sky coverage for a majority of the area as the cirrus canopy from the decaying complex overspreads the area. I feel confident that this cloud cover will thin enough such that highs in the low to mid 90s are still achievable. If not---then MaxT grids will need to be nudged downward. This afternoon, it appears that the risk for additional showers and thunderstorms to develop has increased from originally thought. Radar imagery from western Oklahoma shows a well defined mesoscale convective vortex (MCV). Short term high-resolution model guidance has resolved this feature well and advertises an increase in showers/storms generally west of I-35. I`ve cautiously nudged PoPs upward for late this afternoon and into the evening hours given the poor performance of guidance over the past several days. However, with the MCV quite apparent, I do have confidence that showers/storms will develop somewhere across the region. Given the abundance of moisture and thus instability, a small cluster may evolve and dive southward out of Oklahoma---steered along the eastern periphery of the mid-level ridge. The severe weather risk doesn`t appear overly high given the paltry deep layer shear values; however, daytime heating may promote steep low-level lapse rates and thus a risk for strong to near-severe caliber wind gusts. The cloud debris wasn't nearly as extensive as expected. Most of the day has been Sunny with blue skies (finally). Currently 98*F at DFW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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