Central/Western Medium-Long Range Discussion

[cstrunk]

What an awful severe weather season. "There's always next year..."

[nrgjeff]

Indeed the weeklies choked horribly for May 18-25. Trouble is those Gulf lows are probably too small to resolve for weekly products. West trough was there, but so were 2 Gulf lows.

ERTAF stayed skeptical which is a huge win for them deviating from the weekly charts. 

UPDATE: ECWMF has improving wind fields next week, but still moisture questions. Exactly two weeks ago my hopes were up for the following week, but we punted on moisture concerns. Managing expectations this time around, but cautiously hopeful in later May climo.

[F-5]

If one had to sum up the 2018 severe weather season so far they couldn’t do any better than this mornings 13z tornado probs outlook.

[CheeselandSkies]

1 hour ago, F-5 said:

If one had to sum up the 2018 severe weather season so far they couldn’t do any better than this mornings 13z tornado probs outlook.

Well, they threw in a little 10% for NE CO at 1630 so maybe today will grow a pair after all.

Figures, just in time for my vacation to end action picks up a little bit, although yesterday and today's threats by themselves probably wouldn't be enough to draw me that far out.

I think I'm done taking a week off each spring for "chasing." This is the fourth straight year I've booked one based on late May/early June climo and each year it has coincided with the deadest period possible. I'll just try to take off for the significant troughs as they show up on the models and if they go to crap, then just do something else with the PTO day.

[Quincy]

Today's northeastern Colorado is a fairly typical 10% day in late May. (Could be big or could be slop) Shear is there and so is moisture, but lingering clouds and concerns about storm mode/mergers suggest this could just as easily flop as perform. With that said, climatologically favored upslope trajectories with ample moisture suggest that there probably will be at least a few tornadoes. Will they be seen or last longer than a couple of minutes? We'll see. 

[WhiteoutWX]

1 hour ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Well, they threw in a little 10% for NE CO at 1630 so maybe today will grow a pair after all.

Figures, just in time for my vacation to end action picks up a little bit, although yesterday and today's threats by themselves probably wouldn't be enough to draw me that far out.

I think I'm done taking a week off each spring for "chasing." This is the fourth straight year I've booked one based on late May/early June climo and each year it has coincided with the deadest period possible. I'll just try to take off for the significant troughs as they show up on the models and if they go to crap, then just do something else with the PTO day.

I've always thought the idea of a chasecation seemed pretty risky. Even excluding this years absolute trainwreck into a pile of dumpster fires of a season...during a normal season a week of poorly timed troughs could mean the whole vacation is a wash. Maybe I'm just not a "dedicated" enough chaser though lol. 

[Quincy]

8 minutes ago, WhiteoutWX said:

I've always thought the idea of a chasecation seemed pretty risky. Even excluding this years absolute trainwreck into a pile of dumpster fires of a season...during a normal season a week of poorly timed troughs could mean the whole vacation is a wash. Maybe I'm just not a "dedicated" enough chaser though lol. 

There's pretty solid reliability in the end of May. Even in a bad year, odds favor that more than half (sometimes all) of the days should feature at least something worth chasing. This year has been abysmal for tornadoes, but there was the Wyoming event yesterday and several other days have featured supercells and "interesting" storm structure. The window during which one chooses to go on a chasecation does seem a bit risky. If you go before the final week of May, odds increase that there will be several down days and possibly a busted period. Go before May 15th and you're doomed, unless you get really lucky. Wait until June and while the ceiling may be higher for at least one or two higher-end days, there's also increased odds that there will be down time.

I guess if tornadoes are all that you're after, it's a bit risky. At least it has been this year and last year as well. Unless we're really moving into a new pattern (I doubt it), late May is king and produces well in the vast majority of years.

[bjc0303]

Not going to lie, I am intrigued by the next few days for supercell/tornadoes. Doubt anything materializes Weds/Thurs, but intriguing potential nonetheless.

Also a fan of tomorrow's severe weather setup, if approached from the perspective of "it's a summer pattern." 

[bdgwx]

Saturday might be a player as well in Missouri.

[nrgjeff]

I am still holding in Tenn. Almost went to the Plains for early this week; and, apparently DDC is going to DDC when it comes to tornadoes. WY/CO also did their late May thing. 

Today/Wednesday a nice cell or two starting near where CO/KS/OK meet would not surprise me - but late. 700 mb is warm, but not too hot. Heights are rising this morning, but are forecast to fall again this afternoon with a short-wave. Boundary sits there. Low level wind fields should improve this afternoon. 

Thursday looks like the big shift North. Friday could be a nice event, but risk is mainly CF/WF if DL stays capped. Both days SPC forecasts looks reasonable to me.

Chasecation thoughts: If one has two weeks and must schedule ahead, probably go last two weeks of May, or last week of May and first week of June. I think one week is not enough if one has to schedule ahead. While any of those weeks should have tornadoes, who sees every tornado? A good chaser bats about .333 so one needs more than a couple chances. One fixed week might not be enough.

Best deal is a floating time-off agreement at work/home and go when a quality trough is forecast. Then one can pick a week with 3-4 chances. If not, then the two weeks fixed should offer 3-4 chances total even with poor troughs. Goal is 3-4 chances on the trip. Batting .333 odds improve greatly with 3-4 chances vs 1-2.

[Quincy]

The season is cooked for anywhere near/south of I-70. Mega death ridge reigns for the next 7-10 days, but the pattern could favor some AOA severe activity from Idaho/Montana/Wyoming into the Dakotas. The week two period favors more Great Lakes troughing, so that would tend to suggest an MCS/derecho pattern from the Upper Midwest into the Lakes vicinity. 

[CheeselandSkies]

I don't MIND chasing the northern Plains (in fact I rather prefer it due to relative proximity to me and less likelihood of crowds), but I'd rather it be south of the international border.

[nrgjeff]

Tis the High Plains and Northern Plains Season. Happy June-ing! Central Plains does appear shut down. Panhandle could still pull magic through mid-June iff a southern stream wave at the same time a boundary wanders south. So, let's talk June-ing.

Wed-Fri this week I see chances in and adjacent to Wyoming. Don't let my one state influence your target, but it's a start. Colorado could be involved, all the way up to Montana. Per SPC Thursday, I'd say Wed & Fri will also have moderate flow and adequate moisture in and around Wyoming. Remember 60 Td is great up there. Despite Marginal/Slight, geographic features can help out. Examples are the Big Horns, Laramie Range, Cheyenne Ridge, Palmer Divide, plus others. No shame checking Google Maps terrain for ideas. Find a boundary near a geographic feature and go for it!

Late week and/or early next week may be a true system for the Dakotas and Minn. I've little to add; models should handle a synoptic system. Then next week the MT/WY/CO deal may set up again. Boundaries left from the weekend could help.

[Thundersnow12]

No talk of tomorrow? 

 

ND looks good tomorrow and eyeing srn MN myself on Wednesday 

[CheeselandSkies]

Had my eye on SD for possibly Friday for a few days now, but much like a similar situation for last Friday it looks to be trending down with time. Low-level shear looks decent at least over a small area but upper-level winds (above 500mb) are quite weak. Could have storms drowning their own updrafts with precip.

[hlcater]

8 hours ago, Thundersnow12 said:

No talk of tomorrow? 

 

ND looks good tomorrow and eyeing srn MN myself on Wednesday 

Tomorrow looks decent, but I think wednesday looks likely to grow upscale into an MCS rather quickly. 

[nrgjeff]

The 11-15 day forecast is a low confidence mess, but I want to look at two options in the few days leading up to and including Father's Day. Weeklies and Ensembles try to lower heights in the Plains. Many outcomes are possible, but I look at two below...

First one involves a cutoff ULL roaming through Texas. It would be helpful for more rain in the Southern Plains. However it would be worthless for storm chasing.

Second one could be more interesting. It has a little bit of STJ coming into the Southwest US and approaching NM and the TX Panhandle. LLJ responds most days. While we generally write off south of I-70 in mid-June (and rightfully so) the Caprock and above can still work.

Wish I could be optimistic, but we know 2018 favors UULs. Otherwise, grab the passport and chase Canada, MT and the Dakotas.

[andyhb]

Hey all, figured I'd drop my first post in here as a red tagger.

...now can we get an actual setup to talk about (who am I kidding, it's 2018 still)

[Amped]

On 6/5/2018 at 8:40 PM, andyhb said:

Hey all, figured I'd drop my first post in here as a red tagger.

...now can we get an actual setup to talk about (who am I kidding, it's 2018 still)

2018 Tornado stats from 4 states I handpicked. Tells most of the 2018 story.  

WY: 14

OK: 10

VA:10

ID:9

 

Edit: Another tornado, right after I make the post. And of course, it's in Wyoming

[Amped]

On 6/5/2018 at 11:43 AM, nrgjeff said:

The 11-15 day forecast is a low confidence mess, but I want to look at two options in the few days leading up to and including Father's Day. Weeklies and Ensembles try to lower heights in the Plains. Many outcomes are possible, but I look at two below...

First one involves a cutoff ULL roaming through Texas. It would be helpful for more rain in the Southern Plains. However it would be worthless for storm chasing.

Second one could be more interesting. It has a little bit of STJ coming into the Southwest US and approaching NM and the TX Panhandle. LLJ responds most days. While we generally write off south of I-70 in mid-June (and rightfully so) the Caprock and above can still work.

Wish I could be optimistic, but we know 2018 favors UULs. Otherwise, grab the passport and chase Canada, MT and the Dakotas.

Euro has a pretty strong low coming out of the central plains into the Ohio Valley late next week.  It would likely result in a multiday severe outbreak. GFS looks totally different.

[nrgjeff]

I favor the ECMWF over the GFS since the latter is contaminated by bogus tropical storms. My southern strategy fell apart. However yes, northern action is likely. Could be High Plains, Northern Plains, and/or Upper Midwest. Sloppy troughs probably prevent an outbreak; but, one has to expect local severe wx episodes in mid-June that region.

[Paulie21]

I feel like I have said this next sentence several times this year already but...ensembles don't look bad for next weekend, along with the OP GFS. ECMWF solid as well for now. All agree on some flow aloft in the plains. As everything in June and rest of the season goes, thermodynamics shouldn't be an issue, all kinematics from this point on.. 
At least something to look at and hopefully not disappoint like everything else has when it disappeared before it even got into the NAM range.

[Radtechwxman]

This thread is anomalously quiet for the weekend severe potential 

[CheeselandSkies]

Either no one wants to jinx it or no one cares since it's after the summer solstice and everyone's chasecation is over. GFS has actually been pretty consistent with late next week wanting to get frisky over the Midwest.

[Radtechwxman]

2 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Either no one wants to jinx it or no one cares since it's after the summer solstice and everyone's chasecation is over. GFS has actually been pretty consistent with late next week wanting to get frisky over the Midwest.

Right. I'm shocked. I can't chase but still like discussing the threat

[nrgjeff]

Learned Helplessness is the psychological theory. We are so used to it going to crap 36 hours out nobody even tries to help themselves to a chase. 

Sunday is still 60 hours out, but maintains good wind profiles and moisture. It will be so unstable that a big old MCC with lots of straight line wind is likely by night. However one has to like chances of a couple tornadoes along boundary intersections afternoon/eve. Also need the LLJ to hold up on NWP, rather than show weaker about 36 hours out. Storms creating their own environment is nice, but I'd rather see the LLJ go on its own.

I will be watching virtually from here. 

[Quincy]

29 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

Learned Helplessness is the psychological theory. We are so used to it going to crap 36 hours out nobody even tries to help themselves to a chase. 

Sunday is still 60 hours out, but maintains good wind profiles and moisture. It will be so unstable that a big old MCC with lots of straight line wind is likely by night. However one has to like chances of a couple tornadoes along boundary intersections afternoon/eve. Also need the LLJ to hold up on NWP, rather than show weaker about 36 hours out. Storms creating their own environment is nice, but I'd rather see the LLJ go on its own.

I will be watching virtually from here. 

The low-level jet signal is pretty intense given the latitude this late in the season. Yes, there's some convective feedback, but LLJ is progged to reach 50 knots by 03z (near the solstice, that's only an hour after sunset around here) all the way down into Oklahoma with 50-60+ kts in Kansas. Have to imagine a big wind producing convective system evolves late, but earlier day is more of a question mark. 

It may be a convective mess with the degree of instability with storms just firing all over the place. Who knows. I can't say I've chased long enough to see a similar setup south of I-70 in late June. It will be interesting, but this year especially has taught me to not get too excited about a forecast two or more days out. 

The fact alone that we're seeing noteworthy upper level flow this far south for 2-3 days is intriguing. Beyond this weekend, such flow (probably even stronger) looks to return for much of next week from the northern Plains to Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. 

The severe season is not entirely over... yet...

[CheeselandSkies]

That would be something if the sequence of the year (in terms of duration/coverage/intensity) occurred after the summer solstice, but it would be in keeping with #2018ing. The signs are there, but signs don't mean much when they usually vanish within 36 hours.

[Radtechwxman]

Very well said. Pretty abnormal to see upper levels winds like that this south in late June. The instability/shear combo is impressive esp in southern KS on Sun. But the strong forcing makes me think you could see a lot of storms fire and get messy quick. But man if anything can stay discrete it will be tornadofest. OFB Sat in OK could get interesting 

[jojo762]

18Z NAM shows what is quite possibly one of the better looking setups of the year, especially for late June in Kansas/south of I70. Hard to get too excited given the awful trend we’ve experienced this year though, as was discussed above.