Central/Western Medium-Long Range Discussion

[Radtechwxman]

3 hours ago, jojo762 said:

18Z NAM shows what is quite possibly one of the better looking setups of the year, especially for late June in Kansas/south of I70. Hard to get too excited given the awful trend we’ve experienced this year though, as was discussed above.

Storm mode is my main concern. Looks like things could grow upscale fast with strong forcing and high instability. I haven't looked to see how strong the capping is

[jojo762]

3 hours ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Storm mode is my main concern. Looks like things could grow upscale fast with strong forcing and high instability. I haven't looked to see how strong the capping is

Both 00Z NAM and GFS depict QPF bombs so that’ll probably be what does this in. Different evolution of the MCS on the models though...but for sure looks like a sig severe event for damaging winds and hail.

[rolltide_130]

On that note, today and tomorrow have both trended down significantly. 

Expect next week to do the same within 36 hours.. that's all I really have to say about that. It will happen. 

[Quincy]

3 hours ago, rolltide_130 said:

On that note, today and tomorrow have both trended down significantly. 

Expect next week to do the same within 36 hours.. that's all I really have to say about that. It will happen. 

You do realize tomorrow was upgraded to a moderate risk? Granted it's not looking like an outbreak of discrete storms, but significant  severe seems likely given the degree of shear and instability expected. 

[CheeselandSkies]

21 minutes ago, Quincy said:

You do realize tomorrow was upgraded to a moderate risk? Granted it's not looking like an outbreak if discrete storms, but significant  severe seems likely given the degree of shear and instability expected. 

I see where he's coming from, in that it seems like a waste of favorable moisture, low-level and deep layer shear if it's not going to produce long-lived, photogenic tornadoes especially given the dearth of setups that have featured all three conditions overlapping at all this year and most of last.

I mean, come on, it's late June and not enough cap to prevent a convective mess?

[Chinook]

It's not too often you find the 3000 -4000 J/kg of CAPE at the same areas as 50-60 kt of shear in June. And this almost shows a good overlap of these elements. It seems to be true that multicells/ squall line(s) will be likely tomorrow. It definitely could be more interesting (discussion-wise) to see more discrete supercells. Realistically, we may see quite a few severe storms with 30 - 45 kt of shear, as maybe those 50 kt values will be in the cold air sector.

 

 

[jojo762]

18Z NAM completely kills the setup tomorrow with a convective complex that develops this evening over E CO/W KS then meanders it’s way to SC KS/N OK by 12z tomorrow, then NC OK by 15Z... not sure im buying it, but likewise it completely obliterates downstream moisture. 

[yoda]

New Day 1 has enhanced risk... 30 percent wind

[rolltide_130]

21 hours ago, Quincy said:

You do realize tomorrow was upgraded to a moderate risk? Granted it's not looking like an outbreak of discrete storms, but significant  severe seems likely given the degree of shear and instability expected. 

 

Before being downgraded back to Enhanced risk. 

[Quincy]

1 hour ago, rolltide_130 said:

 

Before being downgraded back to Enhanced risk. 

In all honesty, the moderate seemed a bit overdone. It's a very complex setup and it doesn't take much to throw a wrench in higher-end potential, especially with a seasonally anomalous setup so far south. 

On the bright side, drought areas have and should continue to get drenched with much needed rainfall. 

[rolltide_130]

Just now, Quincy said:

In all honesty, the moderate seemed a bit overdone. It's a very complex setup and it doesn't take much to throw a wrench in higher-end potential, especially with a seasonally anomalous setup so far south. 

On the bright side, drought areas have and should continue to get drenched with much needed rainfall. 

 

That's true. However as for severe, I'm now back into looking towards the next season. 

2019, at least for now, looks a bit more promising in terms of seasonal analogs (I saw 2010, 2007, and 2005 mentioned - 2010 and 2007 both being good years and 2005 not being great but still a massive upgrade over this year), but we'll have to see if that holds or if, when we do get good setups, mesoscale features don't actually ruin it. 

[rolltide_130]

And today was downgraded even further to Slight, with a Marginal where the original MDT was. 

I think we may be locked in to 2018 being the worst severe season on record at this point, even worse than the 1980s... this is abysmal. 

[bjc3395]

This one won’t garner a ton of interest anytime soon but I’m becoming intrigued of a robust severe weather event happening across Louisiana into states to its east next weekend. General pattern progression favors the increase of low level moisture with decent instability on tap by Saturday next week. A significant wave looks to take on a neutral-negative tilt as it ejects into the Plains, inducing substantial cyclogenesis as a result. Won’t really go into more details.. but this one looks to target my forecast/WWA AOR, so I’m a bit peeped for that. 

[Sydney Claridge]

1 hour ago, bjc3395 said:

This one won’t garner a ton of interest anytime soon but I’m becoming intrigued of a robust severe weather event happening across Louisiana into states to its east next weekend. General pattern progression favors the increase of low level moisture with decent instability on tap by Saturday next week. A significant wave looks to take on a neutral-negative tilt as it ejects into the Plains, inducing substantial cyclogenesis as a result. Won’t really go into more details.. but this one looks to target my forecast/WWA AOR, so I’m a bit peeped for that.  

I was noticing that on the model runs as well.  What are the probabilities that north-central and NE TX gets involved here?  (though it's probably a bit early to say)  Today's 12z and 18z GFS runs are at least hinting at the idea (though somewhat earlier in the day), but that is just two runs of the same model.  The potential event is still over a week out so the models will definitely become more refined as it draws closer, and perhaps more questions can be answered then.

[bjc3395]

On 2/16/2019 at 5:59 PM, BrandonC_TX said:

I was noticing that on the model runs as well.  What are the probabilities that north-central and NE TX gets involved here?  (though it's probably a bit early to say)  Today's 12z and 18z GFS runs are at least hinting at the idea (though somewhat earlier in the day), but that is just two runs of the same model.  The potential event is still over a week out so the models will definitely become more refined as it draws closer, and perhaps more questions can be answered then.

SPC just put out a day 6 for the event, mentioning tornadoes and damaging winds. 

 

I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw a little bit of a Wwd shift but I don’t think this will be all that chaseable regardless. Should be pretty messy.. but definitely has some decent severe potential. 

The other region forum has not a peep about it lol. The winter wx weenies, I tell ya. 

[Sydney Claridge]

33 minutes ago, bjc3395 said:

SPC just put out a day 6 for the event, mentioning tornadoes and damaging winds. 

 

I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw a little bit of a Wwd shift but I don’t think this will be all that chaseable regardless. Should be pretty messy.. but definitely has some decent severe potential.  

The other region forum has not a peep about it lol. The winter wx weenies, I tell ya. 

NE Texas is in the Day 6, so they might get involved it seems.  Like you said, barring a westward shift, north-central Texas and DFW probably will not be involved.  Seems like a potential western Dixie and mid-Mississippi/Lower Ohio valley event based on the SPC outlook thus far.

[1900hurricane]

It's only early March, and we just had a big cold intrusion push all the way through the southern plains and into the gulf, but the overall background state appears to be becoming more favorable for severe weather. Guidance has two rather potent shortwave troughs ejecting into the plains over the next ten days with at least some chances of severe weather for the region, with the first one already having a thread up.

[CheeselandSkies]

Tomorrow isn't as clear-cut as it once looked, but if the midweek system has instability problems (which 12Z GFS suggests it will) it won't be for lack of moisture....

[andyhb]

Paul Roundy was my OU advisor's phD advisor. This is another shot across the bow regarding this upcoming severe wx season.

[rockchalk83]

On 3/8/2019 at 11:20 AM, andyhb said:

Paul Roundy was my OU advisor's phD advisor. This is another shot across the bow regarding this upcoming severe wx season.

If the mean trough is in the Southwest US, wouldn’t that mean more severe weather for our region? 

[CheeselandSkies]

GFS and Euro OP don't look too encouraging if you want warmth and storms in the Midwest. Shows a return to western ridging with the lowest 500mb heights across the eastern Lakes.

[nrgjeff]

Yes, and we storm chasers are excited. OK, cautiously optimistic..

17 hours ago, rockchalk83 said:

If the mean trough is in the Southwest US, wouldn’t that mean more severe weather for our region? 

Another trend is our friend deal: Central Plains had a good snow year. If the active storm track continues, lifting north with the jet stream, it puts the Central Plains in severe wx later in spring. KC had the first good snow winter in years. Will Wichita and others have an exciting spring? 

Note I've lived in both KC and ICT so I mention them by name. Applies to the whole area. Rock Chalk Jayhawk!

[1900hurricane]

I figure this is relevant.

 

https://twitter.com/ahberrington/status/1107346133276413952

[CheeselandSkies]

Evidently SPC was throwing out the GFS when they put "potential too low" for next Thursday. It has been steady with a decent severe setup somewhere in the Plains in that timeframe for several runs now. That should at least warrant a "predictability too low" even if they aren't confident enough in magnitude/placement to delineate a 15% risk area.

[nrgjeff]

We've graduated to Predictability too low. Euro is not as into it. Either has moisture issues or positive tilt. I can understand hesitating there especially day 7. Overall North America pattern is a little flaky too. Just as well we can watch a bunch of basketball before chasing.

[CheeselandSkies]

1 hour ago, nrgjeff said:

We've graduated to Predictability too low. Euro is not as into it. Either has moisture issues or positive tilt. I can understand hesitating there especially day 7. Overall North America pattern is a little flaky too. Just as well we can watch a bunch of basketball before chasing.

Yeah, around 10 days ago I thought the pattern was gonna become more conducive quicker, but I have to remind myself there's still 9 days of March, and our morning temperature in the upper 30s today is actually slightly above normal.

[bjc3395]

Moisture return still looks shaky at best but the GFS convects for Thursday with reasonable temp profiles to sustain surface-based convection... With pretty strong shear profiles in W/NW OK. Additionally while the operational euro does not convect along the dry line, quite a few members of its ensemble do. It's worth watching... The euro also slows quite a bit (the operational member) with an ejection at like 12z Friday. If the wave slows another 12 hours or so, a pretty big Friday event would be on the table (details still needing sorted however).

[nrgjeff]

Next 7-10 days will struggle. GOM trajectories point to the Caribbean, not the Mainland. That's a problem!

Could perk up a bit 11-15 day period. More troughing is forecast out West. Going into May moisture will be more predicable too. 

MJO is trying to improve. Indian Ocean is waking up. Still junk in the West Pac though. Some models rush the latter through and reset toward week 3. Others let the IO start to influence sooner. Either way I can't argue with climo. Should pick up by mid-May.

[Weatherdemon]

5 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

Next 7-10 days will struggle. GOM trajectories point to the Caribbean, not the Mainland. That's a problem!

Could perk up a bit 11-15 day period. More troughing is forecast out West. Going into May moisture will be more predicable too. 

MJO is trying to improve. Indian Ocean is waking up. Still junk in the West Pac though. Some models rush the latter through and reset toward week 3. Others let the IO start to influence sooner. Either way I can't argue with climo. Should pick up by mid-May.

Man, I hope so!

[jojo762]

Not very much agreement among the models regarding boundary and jet placement among other things in the Day 6-8 time frame... However, does appear to be an upward trend in severe chances somewhere across the central and southern plains between Sunday-Tuesday next week...