Chicago Storm Posted April 24, 2018 Share Posted April 24, 2018 4 minutes ago, jojo762 said: I'm talking strictly about the essence of what is shown in model land and not focusing whatsoever on any other day-of issues like moisture or mid-upper level flow orientation, etc etc. Neither of those are really "day of" issues though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 25, 2018 Author Share Posted April 25, 2018 00z Euro presents quite a volatile looking setup near/E of I-35 in OK at 168 hrs. Secondary vort max rotates around the base of the synoptic scale trough and leads to a south-southwesterly/southerly LLJ surge underneath strong WSW 500 mb flow and plenty of low level moisture (if you're thinking this sounds a lot like the setups in the second half of May in 2013, you'd be right). As a result, the level of turning with height is quite impressive. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 5 hours ago, andyhb said: 00z Euro presents quite a volatile looking setup near/E of I-35 in OK at 168 hrs. Secondary vort max rotates around the base of the synoptic scale trough and leads to a south-southwesterly/southerly LLJ surge underneath strong WSW 500 mb flow and plenty of low level moisture (if you're thinking this sounds a lot like the setups in the second half of May in 2013, you'd be right). As a result, the level of turning with height is quite impressive. I wasn't able to see the upper levels on the site I use for Euro. However I did like the strong sfc low shown near the panhandles. Gfs had a similar position albeit weaker. The moisture and cape were great. What did the jet orientation look like? Seems like models are trending less positive tilt now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjc0303 Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 21 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: I wasn't able to see the upper levels on the site I use for Euro. However I did like the strong sfc low shown near the panhandles. Gfs had a similar position albeit weaker. The moisture and cape were great. What did the jet orientation look like? Seems like models are trending less positive tilt now H500 H300 H200 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 Well lookie there, spring at last! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornado_junkies Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 1 hour ago, bjc0303 said: H500 H300 H200 Oh my that's impressive. Those westerlies at 500mb are beautiful! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 Thanks for posting those man! Appreciate it. That is gorgeous! Nice low amplitude broad based trough. I know andyhb is a fan of those and I love that it looks like another trough is loading in the SW behind it. Kinda reminds of the late May 2013. Could see several days of chasing opportunities with the possibility of a few bigger days. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjc0303 Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 A little skeptical of persistence here given near unanimous signal for western ridging to return after the passage of this trough. Euro looks capped for Monday. Tuesday is “the day.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 Severe Thunderstorm Warning TXC019-029-325-252045- /O.NEW.KEWX.SV.W.0044.180425T1948Z-180425T2045Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 248 PM CDT WED APR 25 2018 The National Weather Service in Austin San Antonio has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northern Medina County in south central Texas... Southeastern Bandera County in south central Texas... Northwestern Bexar County in south central Texas... * Until 345 PM CDT * At 247 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Tarpley, moving east at 40 mph. This storm is likely producing very strong straight line winds. HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings. * Locations impacted include... San Antonio, Bandera, Tarpley, Helotes, Fair Oaks Ranch, Cross Mountain, Lakehills, Cliff, Bandera Falls, Leon Springs, Mico, Government Canyon State Natural Area, Pipe Creek, Kronkosky State Natural Area, Hill Country State Natural Area, Sea World, Rio Medina, Grey Forest, San Geronimo and Scenic Oaks. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement agency. They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in Austin San Antonio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 Wrong thread for that SVR warning... But the 12Z Euro and GFS seem to have come to at least some agreement on tuesday being potentially interesting... Still some differences in orientation of mid/upper level flow among other things, but definitely some agreement on dryline placement, degree of instability, timing of CI, and strength/direction of low-level flow. Also like the current precip fields, as both models appear to favor cellular activity along the dryline in OK/Southern KS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted April 25, 2018 Share Posted April 25, 2018 I still think Tues-Thurs have a decent risk of severe weather. Obviously depends on evolution and timing of trough but overall seems like a setup for a few chase days. After this we look to see a lull again into mid month and then possibly ramping up mid to late May again 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted April 26, 2018 Share Posted April 26, 2018 0z gfs very impressive. Esp on Wed. To me seems to be trending towards Euro like solution. Upper levels still more southerly than I prefer but still far out and plenty of time for improvement. Def a step in the right direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted April 26, 2018 Share Posted April 26, 2018 12 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: 0z gfs very impressive. Esp on Wed. To me seems to be trending towards Euro like solution. Upper levels still more southerly than I prefer but still far out and plenty of time for improvement. Def a step in the right direction TBF more westerly than god knows how many threats over the last few years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted April 26, 2018 Share Posted April 26, 2018 Yea it's been tough to get some westerlies aloft the last several years. Slow moving meridional BS. So would be fantastic to see a lower amplitude trough for once Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted April 26, 2018 Share Posted April 26, 2018 2nd week of may looks to be dominated by a pretty hefty ridge in the west based on both operational models and their ensembles. Not sure how long it’ll be after this trough early week. I’d hedge to say that it’s gonna be quiet for at least 5 days after that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted April 26, 2018 Share Posted April 26, 2018 FWIW (which hasn't been a whole lot of late*), SPC saw fit to introduce a risk area for Days 6 and 7 (Tuesday-Wednesday). The former extends into Iowa. *Wording for Day 7 event hints at a more ominous look for the Plains, which coming from someone other than Broyles carries a little more weight in my mind. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjc0303 Posted April 26, 2018 Share Posted April 26, 2018 00z euro for Wednesday looks rather potent. QPF field suggests long lived scattered activity. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 26, 2018 Share Posted April 26, 2018 12 minutes ago, bjc0303 said: 00z euro for Wednesday looks rather potent. QPF field suggests long lived scattered activity. Wednesday verbatim on the euro is easily the best setup we've seen YTD, which isn't saying much, but nonetheless still impressive. 70-80kt bulk-shear atop 2000-4000J/KG CAPE, juxtaposed to more-than-sufficient turning and speed in the lowest 0-3KM. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted April 26, 2018 Share Posted April 26, 2018 1 hour ago, jojo762 said: Wednesday verbatim on the euro is easily the best setup we've seen YTD, which isn't saying much, but nonetheless still impressive. 70-80kt bulk-shear atop 2000-4000J/KG CAPE, juxtaposed to more-than-sufficient turning and speed in the lowest 0-3KM. Couldn't say it better myself. And it has a nice tight sfc low which is deepening in that classic spot near the panhandles and se CO. Great turning like you said. If euro is right Wed def could be one of the bigger days in recent years in the southern Plains. And love that it is showing it in the better terrain near and west of I35 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted April 26, 2018 Share Posted April 26, 2018 I’m hopeful that either one of the days, Tuesday/Wednesday, will end up being a decent chase day. The synoptic pieces are there so that gives some confidence at this range. But I’m also trying to not get too excited given the 6/7 day lead time at this point. That said, Euro is really nice looking. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted April 26, 2018 Share Posted April 26, 2018 GFS has come around to the Euro upstairs. 12Z has WSW at 200/500 mb which is a great contrast to those bowling balls earlier in the season. We'll see about the moisture, but at least the directional and speed shear (forecast) is significantly better than we have seen all year. Yes this is a good synoptic pattern. Skeptics look at the charts. Now surface details are still up in the air, but calling the forecast synoptic scale good/great is very rudimentary pattern recognition. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 26, 2018 Share Posted April 26, 2018 19 minutes ago, nrgjeff said: GFS has come around to the Euro upstairs. 12Z has WSW at 200/500 mb which is a great contrast to those bowling balls earlier in the season. We'll see about the moisture, but at least the directional and speed shear (forecast) is significantly better than we have seen all year. Yes this is a good synoptic pattern. Skeptics look at the charts. Now surface details are still up in the air, but calling the forecast synoptic scale good/great is very rudimentary pattern recognition. GFS also seems to increasingly like monday as well. Tuesday looks like what could be a big day on the GFS with a very impressive, potentially higher-end environment across much of western Oklahoma and southern KS, and Wednesday ends up being a slop fest. Clearly still some differences between Euro/GFS over what day(s) will end up being favorable and how each day evolves. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted April 26, 2018 Share Posted April 26, 2018 Yea GFS is all over the place. Euro has been holding relatively consistent. 12z gfs has no surface wave on Wed now and really lags the upper jet behind mostly likely cuz it has more amplitude then euro. Hopefully it caves eventually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted April 26, 2018 Share Posted April 26, 2018 Well 12z euro took a step in the wrong direction. Hopefully just a bad run and not a trend. Looking more GFS like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjc0303 Posted April 26, 2018 Share Posted April 26, 2018 3 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Well 12z euro took a step in the wrong direction. Hopefully just a bad run and not a trend. Looking more GFS like What... 12z hasn’t started lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted April 26, 2018 Share Posted April 26, 2018 2 minutes ago, bjc0303 said: What... 12z hasn’t started lol I have eurowx. 12z run is out through Wed now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted April 26, 2018 Share Posted April 26, 2018 Hopefully won't get in trouble for posting this. Winds aloft not looking as westerly as before. Jet has more amplitude this time around and not as flat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 26, 2018 Author Share Posted April 26, 2018 ....what are you talking about? That's the 00z run. Look: FH 168 hrs. 168 from last night's run was Thursday 00z. FH 156 from the 12z run today will be Thursday 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjc0303 Posted April 26, 2018 Share Posted April 26, 2018 1 minute ago, StormChaser4Life said: Hopefully won't get in trouble for posting this. Winds aloft not looking as westerly as before. Jet has more amplitude this time around and not as flat Says 00z.. the site basically lets you see the 12x frames up until you exceed what has come in, then you’re looking at 00z data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 26, 2018 Author Share Posted April 26, 2018 The Euro data comes out from ~12:45 to 2 PM CDT during daylight savings. There's no way that site would have the 12z run in that far already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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