Central/Western Medium-Long Range Discussion

[bjc0303]

23 minutes ago, WhiteoutWX said:

There always the chance for late May magic, I’m reserving calling the season for at least another few weeks, even as bad as things look at the moment.

Just as folks are calling it, I’m seeing some interesting stuff in the extended in both euro and gfs ensembles. 

[Quincy]

8 hours ago, bjc0303 said:

Just as folks are calling it, I’m seeing some interesting stuff in the extended in both euro and gfs ensembles. 

The 12z EPS is pretty awful, with Great Lakes troughing right through day 15. 

[bjc0303]

1 hour ago, Quincy said:

The 12z EPS is pretty awful, with Great Lakes troughing right through day 15. 

Yep, just looked at the 12 eps lol

[CheeselandSkies]

*Sigh.* Already steeling myself for another wasted spring. What does it take to get an active severe pattern this decade (after the extremes of April 2011, of course)? La Nina, El Nino, anomalous warmth, anomalous cold, nothing works. Need to see a year where events like June 16th-18th, 2014, April 9th, 2015 and May 24th-25th, 2016 are part of a sustained pattern and not just diamonds in the rough...and this isn't going to be it.

[bjc0303]

1 hour ago, CheeselandSkies said:

*Sigh.* Already steeling myself for another wasted spring. What does it take to get an active severe pattern this decade (after the extremes of April 2011, of course)? La Nina, El Nino, anomalous warmth, anomalous cold, nothing works. Need to see a year where events like June 16th-18th, 2014, April 9th, 2015 and May 24th-25th, 2016 are part of a sustained pattern and not just diamonds in the rough...and this isn't going to be it.

lol @ calling the season before May first....

 

You have no idea what May is going to bring. Just stop. 

[andyhb]

54 minutes ago, bjc0303 said:

lol @ calling the season before May first....

 

You have no idea what May is going to bring. Just stop. 

Lol everyone is kind of watching time go by and seeing the uncertainty/anxiousness rise. This is nothing new.

There is no need to be bullheaded about it either.

[Quincy]

3 hours ago, bjc0303 said:

lol @ calling the season before May first....

 

You have no idea what May is going to bring. Just stop. 

I don't think anyone's calling the entire season over, at least not without some sarcasm. We all realize that even in the worst storm chasing seasons, there are usually at least a couple of events/stretches that perform between mid-May and mid-June. What we have here is increasing confidence that the next 1-2 weeks will probably be unseasonably quiet.

That says a few things:

1. Since the ensembles and CFS dashboard have pretty good verification stats inside of 2 weeks, there is near-certainty that the next 1-2 weeks will be relatively quiet.
2. It's pretty unusual to go through the last two weeks of April without a higher end outbreak and/or several active severe weather events.
   • 4/29, 4/30 in 2017
   • 4/26 in 2016 (with several other active days in late April)
   • 4/26 in 2015 was a small moderate risk with a localized outbreak, but there were several events over the Plains from 4/16 through 4/26.
   • 4/27, 4/28 in 2014. Yes, most of that was east of the Plains, but 4/28 was a high-end tornado outbreak in Dixie.
   • 2013 was pretty blah, although there were modest events in Oklahoma on 4/17 and 4/26, a widespread wind event across the East Coast on 4/19 and fairly widespread large hail (with some significant) in Iowa on 4/30.
   • 4/30 in 2012 was a decent event in the Plains and other days that come to mind are 4/21 with a several tornadoes in the Upper Midwest and 4/26 through the end of the month was a relatively active period in the Plains/Midwest. Recall that 2012 had a historic severe weather sequence earlier in the month...
   • I don't think I really need to go into detail about 2011...
   • 4/22 in 2010 featured a High Plains severe weather outbreak with modest events on 4/23, 4/24, 4/29 and 4/30. If you want to count an event in the mid-Atlantic, include 4/25.
   • 2009 had several small to medium sized events all throughout the last two weeks of April.
   • 2008 had tornadoes in 9 out of the last 14 days of April and while no single event sticks out as a "big one," 4/23 featured severe weather over a broad portion of the Plains with a localized outbreak in Texas, while 4/24 was a moderate risk/localized outbreak in the central Plains.
   • This is just the past ten years and if you want to be a purist and say that tornado chasing in the Plains isn't always great in late April, you'd be correct, but this sub-forum includes areas farther east and the general discussion is severe weather in the central U.S. It's not "this is a thread that's only for tornado chasing west of I-35."
3. Since tornado probabilities are rapidly increasing through late April, the quieter it is now, the more below average the year-to-date tornado count will fall.

It is possible that a few days around the end of April could heat up, but confidence is very high that the next 7-10 days will be unusually quiet on the broad scale.

• The record for the longest start to a year ever with no tornadoes in Oklahoma is in jeopardy. After finishing today with no tornadoes, that places 2018 into a tie with 1970 with no Oklahoma tornadoes through April 18th of a year, dating back to 1950. There are still 8 more days to go to tie the record of April 26th, 1962, but one could argue that the odds of breaking that record are better than not breaking it, based on the synoptic pattern expected through the 26th. 

If you want to be a storm chasing purist or look at this from a chasecationing angle, then yes, the heart of the season is still out of range of most modeling and for all we know, could end up being very active. With that said, we've seen a trend this year for a lousy pattern and just about everything has gone wrong. 

Since 2012, 4 out of the last 6 years have been fairly dull, overall, in May and June. 2016 was fairly active in May, but then the pattern basically shut down for June. 2013 was pretty much garbage the entire year, aside from the second half of May and then two single days in the fall.

Climate goes through ups and downs. Overall, the Plains has been on the bottom end of a roller coaster ride for several years now. I think seasons like 2008 and 2011 may skew some of our thinking. High-end events are relatively rare, but sway the mean. The result is that more than half of years will have "below average" tornado counts, but the years that are above average can be way above average, skewed by high-end outbreaks.

On a personal note, this may be the first month of April that I don't have any storm chases since I started spring chasing in 2014. That says a lot, considering I live in Oklahoma now and in 2014-2016, I lived on the East Coast. I basically played climatology those years and did not even open up my schedule to storm chase during the first half of April. The bright side is that I haven't had too many highly successful chases in April yet, so from a storm chasing perspective, the season still has a long way to go.

[andyhb]

One main thing that really leans me away from the "oh no the season is over" scenario (beyond the fact that it isn't May yet) is the persistent troughing showing up across the Bering Sea and Alaska in the mid range guidance. There is a fairly strong Pacific jet with that. With the lack of a death ridge signal (more of just a knell in the flow over the next week and a half), one would think that some degree of equatorward amplification will take place in the west given this large scale setup. That cutoff/closed low off the SW coast, provided it does eventually get picked up and doesn't retrograde, could serve to clear the way for that eventual amplification.

[CheeselandSkies]

9 hours ago, bjc0303 said:

lol @ calling the season before May first....

 

You have no idea what May is going to bring. Just stop. 

I would love to be proven wrong, but it's hard to be optimistic looking at the models now and having to clear my car off before I can go to work for the second time this week on April 19th.

[aurora]

Are we still expecting a death ridge and consistent 90-degree temps in Oklahoma shortly after Memorial Day, or have the recent long-range models started to look better in that regard? Because if they haven't, we're really down to banking on an extremely active May to make up for the horrendous start to this season. It would be one thing if we were missing out on severe weather but at least getting a decent amount of garden-variety activity to make up for it, but in the last six months, I've had a grand total of four thunderstorm days (10/21, 12/19, 2/20, 2/24). It's really just sad at this point...

[nrgjeff]

No reason to panic. I agree with Andy and Quincy it is quiet at the moment but it is also early. OK, you are down 12-4 in the opening minutes of a basketball game. Do you panic? Of course not! Sure the score is 3:1 but it is also only 8 points with over 30 minutes to play. We are in the first quarter NBA or first 5-8 minutes college. It's April 19. Relax and smoke some pot tomorrow.

So the weeklies are bad. They are useful out to about 3 weeks in spring/fall. The only reason we have 4-6 weeks is for the depth of winter or peak of summer, gauging persistence or not. If not, do not use for reliable changes any time of year. Again in spring, do not worry about the 4-6 even if it is persistence. 

CFS dashboard seems quiet around May 7 considering what its own weekly chart shows. From the weekly chart I infer a southwest low. Probably not chase material, unidirectional bowling ball verbatim, but still a system. Can't forecast 3 weeks out, but one can cast doubt on the very quiet dashboard.

Analogs include some very awful years, but analogs are just one tool which happen to average out things. One can have a low tornado count, with few systems and no big outbreaks, but still a couple sequences worth chasing. That might not assure local chasers, but a chase vacationer only needs one good sequence.

If down 8 points with a minute to go, maybe panic like some people are now. However it is April 19 not May 19. While we lack evidence for an active season (trend, weeklies, analogs) we also lack evidence to give up (early, low 4-6 week skill). Just enjoy April 20 even without severe weather. 

[WhiteoutWX]

As a local in Oklahoma who also enjoys winter weather I think the biggest source of frustration has been we have now had to endure two consecutive almost record breakingly boring and snowless winters which sandwiched last spring which was rather meh from a chasing perspective. And now this spring looks to at the very least be dead for the first half. It’s hard not to get antsy as a weather enthusiast when you’ve gone this long without any real stretch of interesting weather. I know the season ain’t over but it’s a real exercise in patience waiting for *something* interesting to happen. 

[Drz1111]

Isn't this a perfectly adequate look for MJJ severe in the Northern Plains? 

[Chicago Storm]

Odds are there will be some sort of severe in the Plains towards the first days of May...



Still a long way out obviously, but that should be the first potential...with more at or just after mid-month and beyond.

LR GFS, but it shows it as well...




.

[WhiteoutWX]

Euro doesn't look anything like the GFS unfortunately with relatively weak flow across most of the plains. Still like 10 days out there and definitely a period to watch (the only thing to watch at this point).

[Chinook]

A grand total of 68 tornadoes have been confirmed from April 13-15. You might not have thought that after only about 10 tornadoes showed up on SPC storm reports on April 13th (before all prelim. reports and official storm surveys came in). This graphic is from USTornadoes twitter feed: https://twitter.com/USTornadoes

[bjc0303]

4 hours ago, WhiteoutWX said:

Euro doesn't look anything like the GFS unfortunately with relatively weak flow across most of the plains. Still like 10 days out there and definitely a period to watch (the only thing to watch at this point).

Yeah, I’ll reserve getting too excited until the euro/ensemble jumps onboard. But at least there’s something to monitor. 

[Indystorm]

Well, what do you know>  ERTAF puts up a map for week 2 outlook graphic right in the heart of tornado alley from TX north to Kansas.  First time they've felt confident enough to post a map in awhile.

[Quincy]

12 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

Well, what do you know>  ERTAF puts up a map for week 2 outlook graphic right in the heart of tornado alley from TX north to Kansas.  First time they've felt confident enough to post a map in awhile.

Their discussion is a bit odd. They talk about a pattern change around weeks 2-3, but say that confidence is "extremely low." They then put out moderate confidence for average conditions in week 2 and low for week 3. Maybe it's nitpicking, but it seems to leave them open for just about anything during the period.

Posting that map for early May isn't really anything astonishing at all, it's right where the climatological tornado probabilities peak:

Pessimism aside, there is support from both the operational EC and EPS that suggests a shortwave trough may cross the central U.S. around the 4/30 to 5/1 time-frame. The GFS/GEFS is much more bullish in a deeper trough out west around the same time. 

The bottom line is that once we get through another week or so of an unseasonably lousy pattern for severe weather across the CONUS, there is at least some reason to believe that we return to near-seasonable levels around the start of May, meaning we have legit opportunities at severe weather events, outside of the Gulf Coast and Texas. I'm not very excited yet, but at least we're stepping in the right direction, if you are a fan of severe thunderstorms.

[WhiteoutWX]

The 00z Euro looked to be a nudge towards the GFS regarding more significant troughing over the west starting around day 7. Let’s see if we can get some persistence now.

[jojo762]

Uhhh... This seems pretty ideal from the OP GFS run. Especially after the days of moisture return we are in for early/mid next week. Not going to get too excited just yet, or even attempt to predict WHEN it will happen but it definitely appears next week has some potential at some point. Euro is slower with the system than the GFS - as per usual. All GEFS members show potential at some point next week, which lends credence to some optimism. 

[WhiteoutWX]

Just the simple fact it’s showing a legit ridge on the east coast for what seems like the first time this year has me encouraged. 

[bjc0303]

Still can’t feel too excited for a number of reasons, but I’ll wait. 

[Drz1111]

Going to be a bit breezy for the chasers out there today with all those inverted-V soundings

[jojo762]

1 hour ago, bjc0303 said:

Still can’t feel too excited for a number of reasons, but I’ll wait. 

Not even optimistic for what amounts to an ideal synoptic setup with a trough digging into the four corners while a strong ridge dominates the east coast? Hmm...

[nwburbschaser]

20 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

Not even optimistic for what amounts to an ideal synoptic setup with a trough digging into the four corners while a strong ridge dominates the east coast? Hmm...

I'm not sure that I'd go with ideal at this point. We're still a week out so we have plenty of time before we should get too excited. 

[hlcater]

25 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

Not even optimistic for what amounts to an ideal synoptic setup with a trough digging into the four corners while a strong ridge dominates the east coast? Hmm...

I wouldn't call next week's setup ideal... it's got problems. Particularly problems with moisture(especially on the euro side of things) and the GFS digs the trough deep enough such that 500mb orientation is mediocre at best. I'm not seeing an outbreak, but I'm seeing perhaps a few events in the plains from this.

[bjc0303]

22 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

Not even optimistic for what amounts to an ideal synoptic setup with a trough digging into the four corners while a strong ridge dominates the east coast? Hmm...

Trend for a positive tilt configuration not exactly chaser friendly. Some too amplified, some solutions quite weak. 

 

I also wouldnt call the image posted “ideal” at all. Ideal is a broad wave with strong perturbations emanating from the west over the warm sector. Overlap between favorable instability and kinematics could be small. 

 

Biggest positive is the prominent eastern ridge progged by nearly all guidance. It’s still way too far out to sweat details, but that goes both ways. Could be a slopfest, could be a fun time. Although moisture looks like it won’t be there in time for the first day (Monday), especially on the euro. Best kinematics seem to come Monday on the euro at a glance, although Tuesday looks solid just not in the best terrain. Monday is severely moisture deprived. But again, not worth sweating the details. There will be severe next week. 

[bjc0303]

Just now, NWLinnCountyIA said:

I wouldn't call next week's setup ideal... it's got problems. Particularly problems with moisture(especially on the euro side of things) and the GFS digs the trough deep enough such that 500mb orientation is mediocre at best. I'm not seeing an outbreak, but I'm seeing perhaps a few events in the plains from this.

On the flip side of my post is this: you can’t write anything off this far out. 

Do you believe the trough will really get that far south, as the GFS portrays? 

Will the cold front be as strong as progged by the ECMWF? Seems somewhat harsh if you ask me. 

 

These are are all valid concerns but to make definitive statements about next week at this moment is plainly silly and lazy. 

[jojo762]

2 hours ago, nwburbschaser said:

I'm not sure that I'd go with ideal at this point. We're still a week out so we have plenty of time before we should get too excited. 

I'm talking strictly about the essence of what is shown in model land and not focusing whatsoever on any other day-of issues like moisture or mid-upper level flow orientation, etc etc.