Quincy Posted April 12, 2016 Share Posted April 12, 2016 Looks very boring for a while... Of course that could change in a jiffy. That's true. Aside from the potential for one of these cutoffs to locally produce, we could just as easily see a pattern flip (models can and have been wrong in the long-range) or a random event pop up. Even the worst spring seasons have their share of events. Climo says it's very difficult to get through the last 10 days of April without some notable uptick in severe activity, if that's one piece of optimism I can throw out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted April 12, 2016 Share Posted April 12, 2016 That's true. Aside from the potential for one of these cutoffs to locally produce, we could just as easily see a pattern flip (models can and have been wrong in the long-range) or a random event pop up. Even the worst spring seasons have their share of events. Climo says it's very difficult to get through the last 10 days of April without some notable uptick in severe activity, if that's one piece of optimism I can throw out there. This isn't a bad thing either for when (if?) a significant pattern change occurs. The slow ULL movement caused by the omega block will produce a very favorable heavy rain setup in the Plains, with a midlevel moisture feed from the EPAC and low level trajectories from the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted April 12, 2016 Share Posted April 12, 2016 That's a stupidly powerful system - will be interesting to see if the Euro is right or if it goes North like the GFS says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted April 12, 2016 Share Posted April 12, 2016 It's hard not to feel sick, watching a trough reminiscent of 28 March 2007 amble into the Four Corners and probably lack in high-end severe potential. This blocky pattern is beyond maddening. On the other hand, the blockiness could ultimately be worth it if 2-4" of rain fall over much of the southern Plains over a 3-day period, which looks quite possible. Assuming a real pattern shift in our favor is somewhere up the pipeline, that could have a significant impact on future setups. I will say that I'm not too concerned about current progs beyond D+10 that look unpleasant. With meandering cutoff lows the rule over the next 7-10 days, predictability is simply piss poor. There's no denying that we've been kicked in the you-know-what yet again with an exceptionally awful start to the Plains season. Yet another year of hearing murmurs from veteran chasers about their latest first chase to-date -- the new normal, it seems. There's no upside to that at all, in my view. But at the same time, it's still early enough that if things turn around in the next 2-3 weeks and May/June are rockin', it won't matter very much. If we're still having this kind of discussion on April 30 with abysmal medium range progs, that will be a far different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted April 12, 2016 Share Posted April 12, 2016 yes, this is from an outsider....your season is off to another snoozefest of a start regression from 2011 continues??? twc chasing hail producing tstorms that only have some broad rotation....i mean really.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 17, 2016 Author Share Posted April 17, 2016 Things seem to be shaping up for a more favorable look later next week into the following one with multi-model/ensemble consensus of a western trough (and currently a rather progressive regime) setting up shop. Would have to think there would be one or more setups in the Plains if that ends up coming to pass, perhaps even on the more robust end assuming seasonable moisture return (which doesn't look to be out of the question). Not a huge fan of the Hudson Bay troughing that persists, but otherwise things are certainly looking more active for the tail-end of April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 18, 2016 Share Posted April 18, 2016 Things seem to be shaping up for a more favorable look later next week into the following one with multi-model/ensemble consensus of a western trough (and currently a rather progressive regime) setting up shop. Would have to think there would be one or more setups in the Plains if that ends up coming to pass, perhaps even on the more robust end assuming seasonable moisture return (which doesn't look to be out of the question). Not a huge fan of the Hudson Bay troughing that persists, but otherwise things are certainly looking more active for the tail-end of April. Agreed... Not to be overly specific given that it is still a week away, but next weekend-- more so sunday than saturday-- has looked pretty interesting for several days now on the GFS across the Central/Southern Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 18, 2016 Author Share Posted April 18, 2016 Well that's an interesting #1 analog (some other big periods there too especially in the Plains)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted April 18, 2016 Share Posted April 18, 2016 The 24th-26th looks interesting. Larry Cosgrove seems to think this setup of "cool west" "warm east" remains until maybe mid-May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 18, 2016 Share Posted April 18, 2016 Verbatim the 0z Euro looks quite good next Sun-Tues (day 7-9) more so Mon/Tues across the srn plains.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted April 18, 2016 Share Posted April 18, 2016 Encouraging signs in the medium range abound, but the timetable has shifted back almost as fast as real-time for the past 3-4 days. What was once an event centered on this Fri-Sat is now more like next Mon-Wed. To no one's surprise, significant eastern NA troughing in the polar jet late this week into the weekend is the fly in the ointment. When said troughing was progged to be weaker in the guidance a few days ago, this had some hallmarks of a high-end severe event. That's still a possibility, but I'm growing more skeptical, unfortunately. To be clear, with strong agreement regarding western CONUS troughing, I definitely expect a series of severe weather days between Sunday and the middle of next week. Just talking magnitude here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted April 18, 2016 Share Posted April 18, 2016 Encouraging signs in the medium range abound, but the timetable has shifted back almost as fast as real-time for the past 3-4 days. What was once an event centered on this Fri-Sat is now more like next Mon-Wed. To no one's surprise, significant eastern NA troughing in the polar jet late this week into the weekend is the fly in the ointment. When said troughing was progged to be weaker in the guidance a few days ago, this had some hallmarks of a high-end severe event. That's still a possibility, but I'm growing more skeptical, unfortunately. High-end or not, at least the overall pattern signs are encouraging. Back in mid to late March, it looked like change was going to happen around mid-April and for a time, but then the models lost it, only to see it come back about a week to 10 days late of earlier indications. Now that it's on the horizon, the general pattern looks solid for next week and perhaps late this weekend out in the High Plains. (Weekend won't happen if the slowdown continues and we maintain neutral or rising heights) Moisture won't be an issue with much of the Plains drought knocked out this past week and Texas getting inundated once again with copious amounts of rain. As you mentioned, pesky troughing in southeast Canada/Northeast is probably the biggest issue. Either way, at least we should see severe activity steadily pick up for the last week or so of the month. Maybe with some luck April will only end up slightly below average for tornado counts. It's going to take a couple of big events or a very solid string of days to push the month to AOA average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 19, 2016 Author Share Posted April 19, 2016 The 12z EPS looked pretty substantial to me, especially in the 7-10 day period, as did the 12z Euro op. The trough at 192-216 hrs would likely have a more significant potential since that lead wave helps advect mid 60s dews into the Plains (sacrificial lamb more or less). Then there's also that fact that it looks to reload right behind that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 19, 2016 Share Posted April 19, 2016 FWIW, OUN already mentioning possibility of strong/severe thunderstorms in their "Next Seven Days" graphic for Sunday/Monday (4/24,4/25). DDC also mentioning possibility of severe wx in their AFD-- pretty rare for WFOs to mention severe that far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 20, 2016 Share Posted April 20, 2016 There we go, SPC pulled the trigger for D7, Tuesday (4/26), mentioning "A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WITH TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 20, 2016 Share Posted April 20, 2016 Mike Morgan from KFOR already giving a 6 of 10 on the tornado threat for Tuesday. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 20, 2016 Author Share Posted April 20, 2016 Tuesday next week is looking like a pretty legit threat at this point for somewhere in the Plains. Seeing some pretty top-tier instability/moisture values for late April, which makes sense with that lead shortwave this weekend assisting with poleward moisture transport. Oddly, it's falling directly on the 25th anniversary of 4/26/91. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted April 20, 2016 Share Posted April 20, 2016 Take this with a grain of salt, but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 20, 2016 Author Share Posted April 20, 2016 Take this with a grain of salt, but... Popping 6/24/03, 5/3/99 and 4/26/91 in SARS on the same sounding? Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 20, 2016 Share Posted April 20, 2016 How's the euro look compared to the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 20, 2016 Author Share Posted April 20, 2016 How's the euro look compared to the GFS? Looks pretty favorable as well, although it was further south for Tuesday last night (closer to the Red River Valley). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 20, 2016 Share Posted April 20, 2016 Yeah the 12z Euro looks pretty nasty on Tuesday from srn KS to the Red River, dryline stays west of I-35 with 55kt flow at H5, upper 60 dews and 3,000-4,000 J/kg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted April 20, 2016 Share Posted April 20, 2016 It's nice to see a stretch like this being modeled inside of 10 days. Of course details are subject to change, but this type of pattern should deliver at least one or two solid days: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 20, 2016 Share Posted April 20, 2016 Popping 6/24/03, 5/3/99 and 4/26/91 in SARS on the same sounding? Not bad. Can't get much better really. All are historic plains days that produced both huge quantities of tornadoes, and several devastating tornadoes. Haysville/OKC/Chickasha/ Manchester, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 20, 2016 Share Posted April 20, 2016 The first trough (Sat-Mon) is meh in terms of potential, but it does help with moisture return for the 2nd trough (Tue/Wed). As mentioned above by others, Tues looks sig on both the GFS/ECMWF. Still 6 days out, so we'll see how it progresses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 20, 2016 Share Posted April 20, 2016 Seems like both major models are in pretty good agreement. Wouldn't be surprised for the SPC to go 30% tomorrow, especially if it is Broyles issuing the outlook. Unless something changes dramatically in the modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 20, 2016 Share Posted April 20, 2016 Are we talking a big time outbreak? or run of the mill type spring central plain stuff? Either way can't wait to finally have some severe action! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 Mike Morgan from KFOR already giving a 6 of 10 on the tornado threat for Tuesday. Lol Isn't Mike Morgan the one who makes all sorts of extreme (and less than helpful) statements on live TV while covering tornadoes??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 Isn't Mike Morgan the one who makes all sorts of extreme (and less than helpful) statements on live TV while covering tornadoes??? umm I think so... I don't really remember, someone else in here will know. He updated the number today to a 7. Meanwhile Dr. forbes currently has his TorCon at 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 Isn't Mike Morgan the one who makes all sorts of extreme (and less than helpful) statements on live TV while covering tornadoes??? May 3rd all over again, drive south, etc? If so, yep, that's him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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