Spin-up risk 8/13 morning

[Mikehobbyst]

Looking interesting for NYC, LI and S CT for 8/13 morning.  Discuss please... I'd say 10 percent chance with 500-1000 cape to work with and warm fronts and SSE winds ahead of it.

[PB GFI]

MT HOLLY .

IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR COULD
BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO COMPENSATE FOR THE LOWER INSTABILITY AND
ALLOW FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER, THE CONVECTION MAY TEND TO BE
LOW-TOPPED AND LOCALLY GUSTY CONVECTIVE WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY SOUTH. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE IF A DRY
SLOT IS ABLE TO ALLOW FOR MORE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. ANY STRONGER
CONVECTIVE CELLS SHOULD TEND TO BE IN THE FORM OF LINE SEGMENTS,
ALTHOUGH A LOW-TOPPED CELL WITH SUPERCELL ST

 

UPTON.

ADDITIONALLY...MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT OVERNIGHT AND
WITH A TRIPLE POINT LOW PASSING OVER/NEARBY THE AREA...35-40 KTS
OF 0-6KM SHEAR WITH BETWEEN 200-400 M2/S2 OF 0-1KM HELICITY AND
BETWEEN 15-20 KTS OF 0-1KM SHEAR AROUND 12Z WED. THE QUESTION
IS...WILL THESE ALL COME TOGETHER OVER THE AREA AT THE SAME TIME.
THE CHANCE IS LOW...BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLD STORM
OR TWO TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS OR A BRIEF TORNADO DURING THE
MORNING HOURS INVOF THE WARM FRONT.

[PB GFI]

1 or 2 are possible in the Region as this swings through .

[NEG NAO]

Upton busted already and the event hasn't even started - so what they have to say take with a grain of salt - their 7:24 am AFD said LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO ZONES THIS MORNING...AND  

SHOULD ENTER NE NJ/NYC/WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY  
BETWEEN 8AM-9AM

 

didn't happen because they are underestimating the dry air 

 

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=DIX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000&centerx=400&centery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0

 

I also suspect the models are going to struggle in this event especially with convection and heavy rain as they have all summer -so its a now casting event again

[PB GFI]

Upton busted already and the event hasn't even started - so what they have to say take with a grain of salt - their 7:24 am AFD said LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO ZONES THIS MORNING...AND  

SHOULD ENTER NE NJ/NYC/WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY  

BETWEEN 8AM-9AM

 

didn't happen because they are underestimating the dry air 

 

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=DIX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000&centerx=400&centery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0

 

I also suspect the models are going to struggle in this event especially with convection and heavy rain as they have all summer -so its a now casting event again

THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVERALL SHOW A

MOISTENING ENVIRONMENT WHICH WILL TEND TO HOLD DOWN THE INSTABILITY.

THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO TEND TO LIMIT THE SURFACE BASED

INSTABILITY OVERALL. THEREFORE, ANY THUNDER SHOULD GENERALLY BE

LIMITED AND PROBABLY NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE

SOUNDINGS SHOW MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE WITHIN A HIGHER SHEAR/LOW CAPE

SETUP DEVELOPING. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT, WHICH CAN

ENHANCE THE RAINFALL TOWARD OUR WEST/NORTHWEST ZONES.

A SPOT TO WATCH THOUGH IS CLOSE TO THE WARM FRONT AS SHEAR WILL BE

ENHANCED HERE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME INCOMING CONVECTION TO

OVERRUN THIS BOUNDARY. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR COULD

BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO COMPENSATE FOR THE LOWER INSTABILITY AND

ALLOW FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER, THE CONVECTION MAY TEND TO BE

LOW-TOPPED AND LOCALLY GUSTY CONVECTIVE WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT

LATER THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY SOUTH. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE IF A DRY

SLOT IS ABLE TO ALLOW FOR MORE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE.

 

MT HOLLY , thinks we are pretty dry through the afternoon which may include some breaks of sun . The show is tonite . 

 

Show = Heavy Rain IMO 

[Weathergun]

Heavy rain and thunderstorms tonight closer to NYC, when more dynamics arrives. Af few sprinkles or light showers around until then

[Brian5671]

Upton busted already and the event hasn't even started - so what they have to say take with a grain of salt - their 7:24 am AFD said LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO ZONES THIS MORNING...AND  

SHOULD ENTER NE NJ/NYC/WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY  

BETWEEN 8AM-9AM

 

didn't happen because they are underestimating the dry air 

 

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=DIX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000&centerx=400&centery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0

 

I also suspect the models are going to struggle in this event especially with convection and heavy rain as they have all summer -so its a now casting event again

pretty bad forecast from them today-they have 50% chance of showers in the area by 12noon, yet it's dry out to Lancaster PA right now....

[PB GFI]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=DOX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes    Will head right up the TPKE as the day goes on . 

[Stormlover74]

pretty bad forecast from them today-they have 50% chance of showers in the area by 12noon, yet it's dry out to Lancaster PA right now....

Seems to happen often in these setups and most of the models trended pretty dry for today with the bulk coming tonight into tomorrow.

[RockawayRowdies]

Some nice NOAA radar links.. might as well bookmark them. You cant find these linked anywhere on their site

BGM: http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/N0R/BGM_loop.gif

DIX: http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/N0R/DIX_loop.gif

OKX: http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/N0R/OKX_loop.gif

Funny, probably totally unrelated thing I noticed this morning while driving to work around 6:30-6:40 AM. There were lots of clouds over Parsippany area.. but none over here in Mahwah.

[PB GFI]

Nice probs

[jm1220]

The new GFS doesn't look impressive at all for much of the area, and both GFS and NAM have lots of holes in the precip shield as it crosses. So far over PA this looks to be underwhelming. I think it's a quick 1-2" of rain deal, maybe less if the precip shield continues looking like Swiss cheese the way it is now.

[IrishRob17]

The new GFS doesn't look impressive at all for much of the area, and both GFS and NAM have lots of holes in the precip shield as it crosses. So far over PA this looks to be underwhelming. I think it's a quick 1-2" of rain deal, maybe less if the precip shield continues looking like Swiss cheese the way it is now.

I'll take whatever rain I can get up this way, the grass is brown and some of the smaller and weaker trees are starting to show signs of stress.

[Stormlover74]

A few pop up cells moving NNW out ahead of the main area of precip. Hopefully the heavier stuff west of Philly makes it up here.

[IsentropicLift]

91/73 here at Disney World. Figures I would go away and miss a big rainer.

[WintersGrasp]

The new GFS doesn't look impressive at all for much of the area, and both GFS and NAM have lots of holes in the precip shield as it crosses. So far over PA this looks to be underwhelming. I think it's a quick 1-2" of rain deal, maybe less if the precip shield continues looking like Swiss cheese the way it is now.

This one, at least from my checking some of the model runs the past couple days, has always looked like a 1-2" rain maker. Upton's been really good with the past several storms, but i'm not sure where the 3 or 4 inch amounts in the discussion yesterday came from.if someone gets a thunderstorm, some small areas could end up with those amounts, but for widespread amounts, it seems like 1-2" would be a good call

[Stormlover74]

Getting a heavy downpour at the moment

[Dsnowx53]

The 18z NAM shows incredibly high helicity from 5:00am - 8:00am, though not much instability is juxtaposed. Only around 200-300J/KG of SB CAPE coincides with the best helicity. Still can't rule out a few weak spinners, though.