Vol Man Posted August 10, 2014 Share Posted August 10, 2014 Okay...here we go. We're still probably at least 12 weeks or so away from the first possible flurries for the mountains, but we might as well start looking at some early predictions...I know...I'm a , but Carver said it was OK I had posted this in the Summer Banter thread, but will repost here to get the ball rolling! Looks promising for our area. http://firsthandweat...inter-forecast/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted August 11, 2014 Share Posted August 11, 2014 Right now, El Nino is a key factor. It's not as much a slam dunk as it was looking like earlier but last I saw there was still a 65% probability of the El Nino happening, down from 76% a few weeks ago. I've saw several forecasts so far and they're all going with the El Nino scenario. Most are somewhat similar to the one above, but usually without as much cold in the Northern Plains. Miller A's seem to be the favored storm track in most of the predictions, which makes sense in an El Nino set up. One of the big keys this year is the more favorable PDO pattern we're in these days for bringing cold into our area. 10 of the last 16 El Nino's featured above average precipitation over a large portion of the Tennessee Valley. But 6 featured below average precip. The last was in 2009-10, which featured above average precip for the Eastern half of the Tennessee Valley and slightly below average in the Western half. Most of the time El Nino features generally below average temps in the South, especially the deep south. You don't really get the extreme cold like we had this past winter, but there are a lot of cloudy days with precip, and those areas will tend to be below average. The further south you go, the better your chances at below average temps due to extra precip. The upper midwest is usually warmer than average in El Nino winters, which is the source of our super Arctic outbreaks. When it's warmer than average we aren't going to usually get an extended deep freeze. But much like 2009-10, we can be just cold enough to get a lot of snow in that kind of pattern. We've had a cooler than average summer so far, and there is a bit of a correlation between the two. In Nashville, the 20 coolest July's on record went on to produce 13 colder than average winters. Out of those 13, 6 were the 6 coldest winters in Nashville history. But there's not a strong case to definitively say a cooler July equals a colder winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 11, 2014 Share Posted August 11, 2014 Right now, El Nino is a key factor. It's not as much a slam dunk as it was looking like earlier but last I saw there was still a 65% probability of the El Nino happening, down from 76% a few weeks ago. I've saw several forecasts so far and they're all going with the El Nino scenario. Most are somewhat similar to the one above, but usually without as much cold in the Northern Plains. Miller A's seem to be the favored storm track in most of the predictions, which makes sense in an El Nino set up. One of the big keys this year is the more favorable PDO pattern we're in these days for bringing cold into our area. 10 of the last 16 El Nino's featured above average precipitation over a large portion of the Tennessee Valley. But 6 featured below average precip. The last was in 2009-10, which featured above average precip for the Eastern half of the Tennessee Valley and slightly below average in the Western half. Most of the time El Nino features generally below average temps in the South, especially the deep south. You don't really get the extreme cold like we had this past winter, but there are a lot of cloudy days with precip, and those areas will tend to be below average. The further south you go, the better your chances at below average temps due to extra precip. The upper midwest is usually warmer than average in El Nino winters, which is the source of our super Arctic outbreaks. When it's warmer than average we aren't going to usually get an extended deep freeze. But much like 2009-10, we can be just cold enough to get a lot of snow in that kind of pattern. We've had a cooler than average summer so far, and there is a bit of a correlation between the two. In Nashville, the 20 coolest July's on record went on to produce 13 colder than average winters. Out of those 13, 6 were the 6 coldest winters in Nashville history. But there's not a strong case to definitively say a cooler July equals a colder winter. If we can get a WEAK El Nino fall/winter peak (chances increasing), a winter averaged +PDO (which looks somewhat likely to me), and a winter averaged -NAO (the biggest challenge imo but certainly doable), we could easily be looking at a very cold winter in the SE US similar to, if not colder than, 2009-10. JB is already going for close to 5 below normal in the TN Valley!! That could easily be a top ten cold winter since the late 1800's based on Atlanta's stats if it were to verify! I could see it happen if we get the weak Nino/+PDO/-NAO combo based on history. This would be similar to what Vol Man just released. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted August 11, 2014 Share Posted August 11, 2014 JB is already going for close to 5 below normal in the TN Valley!! Sure fire bet to a +8 winter.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted August 11, 2014 Share Posted August 11, 2014 That chart should sell some subscriptions. Good business plan regardless of Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted August 11, 2014 Share Posted August 11, 2014 http://www.wsi.com/blog/energy/latest-european-model-seasonal-forecast-for-the-upcoming-u-s-winter-is-now-available/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted August 11, 2014 Share Posted August 11, 2014 http://beforeitsnews.com/weather/2014/08/winter-forecast-for-2014-2015-highlights-2443436.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted August 11, 2014 Share Posted August 11, 2014 http://kasimsweatherwatcher.com/uswinter-2014-15-enso-qbo-detailed-forecast/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted August 11, 2014 Share Posted August 11, 2014 http://live.wsj.com/video/this-year-winter-shaping-up-to-be-colder-snowier/857DA4C5-FF31-46EE-A859-CCD7CFEDBE4E.html#!857DA4C5-FF31-46EE-A859-CCD7CFEDBE4E Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 Still looking on track for a weak/mod El Nino. Should be an update in about 10 days, but CPC sticking with the 65% chance as of last update. As long as it's not strong, we're in good shape if you like wintery weather. It's not likely to be strong if it develops. Latest winter forecast from CPC has has low chance of below normal precip and temps for winter. As we know, around here it just takes 1-2 good set ups to get around normal snowfall. Especially for all unelevated areas of the Valley. I can't imagine we'll see the extreme cold we saw last year but I think we avoid the general torch/no snow of the 2011-12 and 2012-2013 winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted August 27, 2014 Share Posted August 27, 2014 I am going on the warm side this winter...fair warning now...And it is too early to make the call based on the usual parameters..just an instinctive call right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 27, 2014 Share Posted August 27, 2014 I am going on the warm side this winter...fair warning now...And it is too early to make the call based on the usual parameters..just an instinctive call right now. The one thing that makes me think a warmer winter may be upcoming is the cooler than average time we have had this summer in the eastern US. How long can that pattern hold on before we switch to something different. Is there any merit to this line of thinking? Other than that factor I have a feeling (gut) that we will be looking at an average to below average winter in terms of temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted August 28, 2014 Share Posted August 28, 2014 2009 was a cool summer that led to a fantastic winter, last year was also a cool summer that led into a great winter. But there's not a strong connection with summer weather and weather the next winter overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted August 28, 2014 Share Posted August 28, 2014 And 2004 was a very cool summer with a warm winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted August 28, 2014 Share Posted August 28, 2014 The one thing that makes me think a warmer winter may be upcoming is the cooler than average time we have had this summer in the eastern US. How long can that pattern hold on before we switch to something different. Is there any merit to this line of thinking? Other than that factor I have a feeling (gut) that we will be looking at an average to below average winter in terms of temps. There is defintely merit there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 28, 2014 Share Posted August 28, 2014 The one thing that makes me think a warmer winter may be upcoming is the cooler than average time we have had this summer in the eastern US. How long can that pattern hold on before we switch to something different. Is there any merit to this line of thinking? Other than that factor I have a feeling (gut) that we will be looking at an average to below average winter in terms of temps. the cold pattern has been in place since last november Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 28, 2014 Share Posted August 28, 2014 the cold pattern has been in place since last november NPAC connection? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted August 28, 2014 Share Posted August 28, 2014 And 2004 was a very cool summer with a warm winter... And it was a weak Nino that winter with a NE PAC warm pool...both we're expecting this winter. So I'm not fully on the cold bandwagon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted September 8, 2014 Share Posted September 8, 2014 I'm really looking forward to this winter. I'm thinking it will be closer to the winter of 09/10 if we can get a weak el nino and a persistent blocking regime going(AO/NAO). Of course it is a crapshoot this far out knowing how all of the indices will fall into place. I know the Farmers Almanac is predicting a cold winter but how many of us really use the Almanac for weather forecasting purposes? Oh and welcome to the our side of the forum, MariettaWx! I know you are skeptical of colder forecasts most of the time and that is a good position to have as we get burned(literally) all too often. This summer has been cooler than normal in June and July but has warmed up in August and in the first week of September. Looks like we will be above average for the first part of fall. Hopefully we can have a warm fall and switch back to the cooler pattern just in time for Winter or at least the bulk of winter in Jan-Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 8, 2014 Share Posted September 8, 2014 And 2004 was a very cool summer with a warm winter... Yes, indeed, 2004-5 was mild overall despite a weak nino/+PDO. However, Dec.-Jan. had the 4th highest +NAO since 1950 before turning neutral in Feb. March had a strong -NAO and it ended up chiily fwiw. The importance of getting a solid -NAO for DJF overall cannot be overemphasized! The last time we had a weak Nino with predominant +PDO and -NAO was way back in 1977-8, a very cold winter. Anyone want to predict the DJF averaged NAO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 8, 2014 Share Posted September 8, 2014 I'm really looking forward to this winter. I'm thinking it will be closer to the winter of 09/10 if we can get a weak el nino and a persistent blocking regime going(AO/NAO). Of course it is a crapshoot this far out knowing how all of the indices will fall into place. I know the Farmers Almanac is predicting a cold winter but how many of us really use the Almanac for weather forecasting purposes? Oh and welcome to the our side of the forum, MariettaWx! I know you are skeptical of colder forecasts most of the time and that is a good position to have as we get burned(literally) all too often. This summer has been cooler than normal in June and July but has warmed up in August and in the first week of September. Looks like we will be above average for the first part of fall. Hopefully we can have a warm fall and switch back to the cooler pattern just in time for Winter or at least the bulk of winter in Jan-Feb. Thank you for the warm welcome. You guys have been very kind in welcoming me to this forum. I agree with you about our above average beginning to meteorological fall possibly having repercussions downstream in late fall winter. This summer has been noticeably cooler than years past around here as well. There were a few July mornings where it got down below 60 and we even set a record low or two if memory serves me well. The last couple of weeks have been a change for the worse. It's been the hottest we've seen all year and the humidity has come back with a vengeance. Hopefully as you say the timing means a colder later fall - mid winter time frame. Ive seen more facts, numbers and theories that suggest a colder winter may be on the way than I have pointing to a warmer winter. Hopefully the cold materializes and equates to snowy as well. I'll be here more and more as the cold settles in. I'm so excited for that first autumn airmass to settle in. It's only a matter of time and really should be here any week now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 We've had some legendary winters in weak El Nino patterns. Very snowy, and fairly cold. CPC is sticking with the 65% chance of one developing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 Some of y'all have probably seen the empirenews.net weather forecast circulating around...I should not be, but I am in utter shock at how many people are falling for this. The website even proclaims itself to be entertainment....It is amazing how the average population are so quick to make fun of meteorologists ("only have to be right 50% of the time, hahaha") yet are falling hook line and sinker for it....I do have to give the author credit for "Senior Administrator of Meteorologists"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvskelton Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 Some of y'all have probably seen the empirenews.net weather forecast circulating around...I should not be, but I am in utter shock at how many people are falling for this. The website even proclaims itself to be entertainment....It is amazing how the average population are so quick to make fun of meteorologists ("only have to be right 50% of the time, hahaha") yet are falling hook line and sinker for it....I do have to give the author credit for "Senior Administrator of Meteorologists"! Always remember that as long as other people are gullible, there's no limit to what you can achieve! -Scott Adams Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 Some of y'all have probably seen the empirenews.net weather forecast circulating around...I should not be, but I am in utter shock at how many people are falling for this. The website even proclaims itself to be entertainment....It is amazing how the average population are so quick to make fun of meteorologists ("only have to be right 50% of the time, hahaha") yet are falling hook line and sinker for it....I do have to give the author credit for "Senior Administrator of Meteorologists"! I saw the satire site yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 The Jamstec is out with D,J,F..above precip in the Valley and above temps,kinda a LaNina look? http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frsgc/research/d1/iod/e/seasonal/outlook.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 The Jamstec is out with D,J,F..above precip in the Valley and above temps,kinda a LaNina look? http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frsgc/research/d1/iod/e/seasonal/outlook.html Jamstec last year busted horribly. I wouldn't put too much stock into it this go around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 I don't even put stock in models beyond 5 days, let alone beyond 5 months. But they are interesting to look at. When is the new higher resolution GFS coming out? I think it will now run at the high resolution and give 3 hour breakdowns out to 240 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 I don't even put stock in models beyond 5 days, let alone beyond 5 months. But they are interesting to look at. When is the new higher resolution GFS coming out? I think it will now run at the high resolution and give 3 hour breakdowns out to 240 or so. New news to me and very interesting. I would love to know this as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 I don't even put stock in models beyond 5 days, let alone beyond 5 months. But they are interesting to look at. When is the new higher resolution GFS coming out? I think it will now run at the high resolution and give 3 hour breakdowns out to 240 or so. 1st I have heard of it as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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