Relationship Between a strongly -QBO SON and Winter Temperatures/Snowfall DJF

[Absolute Humidity]

Yikes. So most October snowfall amounts for south of I-80 does kill off the rest of the winter.

Except 02 or 03, had .7" and 95 had a coating of sleet, but at least in my lifetime anything more than an inch and the winter was toast.

November s almost complete opposite. 1995 and 2013 were stellar; 2012 was above avg with the biggest event occurring in Nov, but 1989 with 6" on thanksgiving resulted in a snowless winter. Although I would easily take my chances with a raging -QBO in OND over the snowless wasteland 0 to less than -20 QBO winters of 94-95, 01-02 and 11-12.

[Snow_Miser]

The good news is that the best QBO analogs that match up with the current ENSO state (1979-1980 and 2003-2004) seem to be exceptions to the overall rule here. Those two analogs favor a colder winter in the east, though a drier winter as well. We'll see how that turns out.

[Absolute Humidity]

The good news is that the best QBO analogs that match up with the current ENSO state (1979-1980 and 2003-2004) seem to be exceptions to the overall rule here. Those two analogs favor a colder winter in the east, though a drier winter as well. We'll see how that turns out.

Yeah those two winters fit best. I'd throw in 77-78 as well since that year also featured +PDO -QBO and -AO Oct(barely) 2005 - 2006 might work as well. Below is a little write up I did exploring the possible influence increased Eurasian Oct snow cover have over -20 or greater -QBO SON falls and their statistically below avg snow fall winters.

The sept QBO avg was -23.22, Aug was -21.64. As I understand QBO, which isn't saying much. Generally speaking, it's good to have a - QBO since 30mb winds in the negative phase tend to promote stratospheric warming events favorable to our side of the globe during winter. Although stout -QBO readings of -20 or less during SON fall months statistically have had winter snow fall below average in the mid Atlantic and NYC region. However, like all things weather, this is not always the case. 2003 2004 saw over 40" snow with an avg QBO below -20 during SON. Also there are few, of any instances of SON's with -20 or below QBO occurring during the onset of a late season niño so who knows what effect that will have if any.

Below is an analysis of -20 or less QBO fall months that correlate to Oct Eurasian snow cover and provides a possible reason why we've seen snowier winters with -20 SON fall QBO years since 2000.

Some interesting and not so interesting facts regarding SON fall seasons with -20 or less QBO years vs October Eurasian Snow Cover since 1970.

Snowiest Winters vs October Eurasian Snow Extent

http://climate.rutge...nth=10&ui_set=1

Year Snow Cover (million sq km)

1977 - 11.58

1978 - 10.08

1993 - 10.41

1995 - 9.68

2002 - 13.47

2009 - 11.55

2010 - 10.81

2013 - 12.85

Average Oct Eurasian Snow Cover = 11.30 (mil sq km)

SON QBO falls of near -20 or below vs October Eurasian Snow Extent Since 1970

Year. QBO Snow Cover (million sq km)

1970: -22.09 13.16

1972: -20.69 12.34

1974: -23.04 9.55

1979: -22.74 8.32

1984: -20.07 9.47

1989: -19.71 9.05

1996: -22.50 10,03

2003: -20.24 10.43

2005: -28.70 9.42

2007: -28.26 8.34

2012: -23.35 11.36

Average Oct -20 QBO Snow Cover Since 1970 = 10.13 (mil sq km)

Average Oct QBO greater than -20 Snow Cover since 1970 = 10.16 (mil sq km)

NYC has an average snowfall of 25.8 inches (the snowfall data below was complied by Snowlover123 ).

http://www.erh.noaa....onsnowfall.html

1965-1966: 21.4" (-4.4)

1970-1971: 15.5" (-10.3)

1972-1973: 2.8" (-23.0)

1974-1975: 13.1" (-12.7)

1979-1980: 12.8" (-13.0)

1984-1985: 24.1" (-1.7)

1989-1990: 13.4" (-12.4 )

1996-1997: 10.0" (-15.8 )

2003-2004: 42.6" (+16.8 )

2005-2006: 40.0" (+14.2)

2007-2008: 11.9" (-13.9)

2012-2013: 26.1" (+0.3)

NYC snow fall average in -20 or below QBO years is 19.5"

NYC snow fall average in -20 or below QBO years since 2000 is 30.2"

Notice how the above average -20 or below QBO years snow fall years all fell in this century. Since 2000, the average Eurasian snow fall stands at 10.74 (mil sq km) which is decently higher then the running average of 10.16 (mil sq km) since 1970 as well as the very slightly lesser -20 QBO average of 10.13 ( mil sq km). I suspect this is largely due to the PDO flip around 1998. As a result, I hypothesized that the -20 or below QBO fall seasons resulting in below average snow fall years have ended and may have even reversed. The PDO flip and its possible resultant Eurasian snow fall increase being the primary reasons why. The Eurasian Oct snow cover increase since 2000 would give credence to that.

However, regarding -20 QBO; its a small data set; only four years and most with avg temps above normal. We'll see how this upcoming winter shakes out -20 or below SON QBO wise, provided that Oct and Nov do not rise well above -20. If the the QBO does stay below -20, I don't think it will have an negative impact on snowfall.

[nynjpaweather]

First, excellent job with the research.

 

Second, this is a perfect example of zeroing in on only one aspect of the atmosphere and not using the data properly.  You have to combine all factors in the atmosphere and piece them all together.  Whether you are working with the QBO, SAI, SSTA, ENSO, or what ever; if you treat each as a stand alone to justify a forecast, you are going to get burned.  You have to combine all these factors and weight each accordingly.  Don't be blinded by statistics that wash out and hide trust multi-decadal climate signals (that are natural BTW). 

 

You know what would be a good addition to this.  Find out the SAI in these years and see if there was any correlation between these warm years and the state of snow in Siberia.  Could that be the difference since the 2000's?

[Absolute Humidity]

Hello Steve and thanks for the input. My attempt here was not intended to make a forecast let alone make one using -QBO statistics exclusively. I'm simply exploring a possible correlation between strong easterly fall season QBO's and how SCE may effect its winter outcome specifically in our region and what correlation; if any exists to define SCE as a possible driver for above average snowfall during these strong -QBO SON's since 2000. The chart below would give some credence. I chose SCE over SAI as because SCE; as noted per MillWx and others has a better score card for the east coast over SAI. If I have time, I'll look into SAI as well.

[SnowGoose69]

DT didn't even mention the QBO in his winter outlook to my surprise

[Absolute Humidity]

DT didn't even mention the QBO in his winter outlook to my surprise

He had a lot to say about it last night in the main forum.

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44473-and-we-begin/?p=3100707

[Absolute Humidity]

Today's QBO came in at -23.86 which is only marginally higher than last months QBO of -23.24, this supporting DT's assertion that the Strong -QBO is likely decreasing heading into winter, much as it did in 2003.

[Absolute Humidity]

Furthermore, heading into Nov, we can clearly see the -20 (Dark Green) anomalies have already decreased below -20 further supporting the notion that that QBO my be on a steadier rise. 

[Absolute Humidity]

Below is a list of SON falls with QBO lower than -20 that had rising December QBO of around -10.

Year QBO Oct SCE DJF Temp Snowfall Dec QBO

1984: -20.07 9.47 +1.2 Nina 24.1" -8.16

1996: -22.50 10.03 +2.6 Neutral - 10.0" -9.86

2003: -20.24 10.43 -2.8 Neutral + 42.6" -11.38

2012: -23.35 11.36 +1.6 Neutral - 26.1" -10.02

2014: -20?? 14.14 ??? Nino?

For fun only; it's interesting to see none of these years had a true Nino but 2003 was close. Unless 2014's Nov QBO rises sharply, 2014's SON QBO will more than likely average below -20 but by Dec, it very well may be around -10. Given this year's extream SCE and likely Nino, albeit weak, 2014 could very well see a winter more like 2003-2004 which differs from the other -20 QBO years above. Yes it's a rediculously small data set but remember, this is for fun. Only 2003-2004 saw BN temps with AN snow and AN SCE. Will be fun to see how this winter works out with a potentially rising QBO around -10.

[Absolute Humidity]

Well so far this winter is looking anything but Dec 2003. Nov QBO -30mb wind anamolies are in and it's an other -20, -23.65 thus the -QBO rages on so its official. 2014 joins the list of -20 or lower SON fall QBO years. We'll have to wait and see if this year follows the trend of above average snowfall since the turn of the century with SON years of -20 or lower. Remember, the avg snowfall for -20 or lower -QBO falls since reliable records around 1965 or so have avg'ed around 20" for NYC, below average over all.

[Allsnow]

Bump

[wolfsheepsheadbay]

Snowlover123 is a God among men

[REDMK6GLI]

Snowlover123 is a God among men

agreed. the QBO played a MUCH bigger part than originally thought thus far.....

[WintersGrasp]

Snowlover123 is a God among men

Indeed this is an excellent thread. Although it is possible that a huge snowstorm can "break the mold", it does appear likely that this winter could fall into the 10-20" range or so in terms of snow amounts of we DO NOT get a blockbuster snowstorm. Lesson learned here

[Absolute Humidity]

Indeed this is an excellent thread. Although it is possible that a huge snowstorm can "break the mold", it does appear likely that this winter could fall into the 10-20" range or so in terms of snow amounts of we DO NOT get a blockbuster snowstorm. Lesson learned here

There have been several "huge snowstorms" that have occured proceeding these 12 -20 SON qbo years, 65-66, 2003-2004 and feb 2006 NYC's top dog and Nemo 2013 to name a few thus there's ample cases of this be possible. It would also appear most of these years were back ended winters as well so what little did fall fell in Feb and March. What makes this year interesting is the intensity of the -qbo through December with four months in a row of -20 or greater, most years the qbo began to rise in December, this year, unlike 2005-2006 the easterlies appear to be getting only stronger and we'll likely see a number around -30 for Dec in a few days. Impossible to tell what this means going forward into 2015 other than a likelyhood of below average snowfall this season. But there's hope.

For next year anyway. If we look at the 12 winters that occurred one year later, those winters saw more than double the snowfall average compaired to the -20 SON years. But that can be a topic for next year.

[DTWXRISK]

i should of  

DT didn't even mention the QBO in his winter outlook to my surprise

[Absolute Humidity]

Well here we are nearing the end of February and low and behold we have managed an above average snowfall season at the Park, 28+" inches with decent chances of more to come. NYC average is 25.8" (If you believe the zoo keepers). The streak of above average snowfall -QBO falls since 2000 continues. However this winter did follow the back ended scenario seen with many of the -20 or less SON -QBO falls. The one major caveat this season is the strength of the -QBO. January's - QBO continued to deepen and even broke a monthly record of -26.7. With the exception of 2005-2006, a warm yet snowy winter, these continued strongly -QBO winters proceeded by -20 -QBO falls have produced warmth with well below snowfall. This may be the case for December, but not for Jan and Feb. Both months will have above average snowfall and below normal temps with Feb being a possible top 5 coldest month since recording keeping. Will be interesting to see and learn what, if any effect this outcome has taught us. Was the possible record breaking +PDO and +PNA and continued -EPO simply overpowering? Or does QBO have an overall less impact than simple statistics and probabliy would imply?