Relationship Between a strongly -QBO SON and Winter Temperatures/Snowfall DJF

[Snow_Miser]

A strongly -QBO (-20 or below) in the autumn has been mentioned by others on another board as a potential cause for a snowless winter in NYC. The reasoning goes that a very -QBO in the autumn promotes warmth in the stratosphere at the poles, leading to very cold conditions at the surface. This in turn strengthens the Pacific Jet, which in turn floods most of the eastern United States with warmer than normal, and less snowy conditions by locking the cold at the polar region. ESRL has QBO data going back to 1948, while OKX has snowfall and temperature records for NYC going back to 1868-1869. 

 

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data

 

Average snowfall for NYC from 1981-2010 is 25.8 inches. 

 

 SON periods with a QBO of -20 or below:

 

1965: -19.96

1970: -22.09

1972: -20.69

1974: -23.04

1979: -22.74

1984: -20.07

1989: -19.71

1996: -22.50

2003: -20.24

2005: -28.70

2007: -28.26

2012: -23.35

 

The resulting winter temperatures. NYC has an average of 35.2 F in the winter.

 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/monthannualtemp.html

 

1965-1966: 35.9 F (+0.7)

1970-1971: 32.2 F (-3.0)

1972-1973: 35.5 F (+0.3)

1974-1975: 37.5 F (+2.0)

1979-1980: 35.4 F (+0.2)

1984-1985: 36.4 F (+1.2)

1989-1990: 35.6 F (+0.4)

1996-1997: 37.8 F (+2.6)

2003-2004: 32.4 F (-2.8)

2005-2006: 37.3 F (+2.1)

2007-2008: 36.4 F (+1.2)

2012-2013: 36.8 F (+1.6)

 

The average out of all of the anomalies is +0.5-+0.6, slightly warmer than average. 

 

NYC has an average snowfall of 25.8 inches. 

 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/monthseasonsnowfall.html

 

1965-1966: 21.4" (-4.4)

1970-1971: 15.5" (-10.3)

1972-1973: 2.8" (-23.0)

1974-1975: 13.1" (-12.7)

1979-1980: 12.8" (-13.0)

1984-1985: 24.1" (-1.7)

1989-1990: 13.4" (-12.4)

1996-1997: 10.0" (-15.8)

2003-2004: 42.6" (+16.8)

2005-2006: 40.0" (+14.2)

2007-2008: 11.9" (-13.9)

2012-2013: 26.1" (+0.3)

 

On average, there tends to be 6-7 less inches of snow than a typical year in NYC when the QBO is strongly negative in the autumn.  

 

This is relevant for the upcoming winter, since the QBO has tanked in recent months, and is now at -19.28 for August. If it continues to decline for SON, and averages -20 or below, there is a greater likelihood of a warmer than normal, and a less snowy than normal winter for NYC. 

[BlueSkiesFading]

A strongly -QBO (-20 or below) in the autumn has been mentioned by others on another board as a potential cause for a snowless winter in NYC. The reasoning goes that a very -QBO in the autumn promotes warmth in the stratosphere at the poles, leading to very cold conditions at the surface. This in turn strengthens the Pacific Jet, which in turn floods most of the eastern United States with warmer than normal, and less snowy conditions by locking the cold at the polar region. ESRL has QBO data going back to 1948, while OKX has snowfall and temperature records for NYC going back to 1868-1869.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data

Average snowfall for NYC from 1981-2010 is 25.8 inches.

SON periods with a QBO of -20 or below:

1965: -19.96

1970: -22.09

1972: -20.69

1974: -23.04

1979: -22.74

1984: -20.07

1989: -19.71

1996: -22.50

2003: -20.24

2005: -28.70

2007: -28.26

2012: -23.35

The resulting winter temperatures. NYC has an average of 35.2 F in the winter.

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/monthannualtemp.html

1965-1966: 35.9 F (+0.7)

1970-1971: 32.2 F (-3.0)

1972-1973: 35.5 F (+0.3)

1974-1975: 37.5 F (+2.0)

1979-1980: 35.4 F (+0.2)

1984-1985: 36.4 F (+1.2)

1989-1990: 35.6 F (+0.4)

1996-1997: 37.8 F (+2.6)

2003-2004: 32.4 F (-2.8)

2005-2006: 37.3 F (+2.1)

2007-2008: 36.4 F (+1.2)

2012-2013: 36.8 F (+1.6)

The average out of all of the anomalies is +0.5-+0.6, slightly warmer than average.

NYC has an average snowfall of 25.8 inches.

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/monthseasonsnowfall.html

1965-1966: 21.4" (-4.4)

1970-1971: 15.5" (-10.3)

1972-1973: 2.8" (-23.0)

1974-1975: 13.1" (-12.7)

1979-1980: 12.8" (-13.0)

1984-1985: 24.1" (-1.7)

1989-1990: 13.4" (-12.4)

1996-1997: 10.0" (-15.8)

2003-2004: 42.6" (+16.8)

2005-2006: 40.0" (+14.2)

2007-2008: 11.9" (-13.9)

2012-2013: 26.1" (+0.3)

On average, there tends to be 6-7 less inches of snow than a typical year in NYC when the QBO is strongly negative in the autumn.

This is relevant for the upcoming winter, since the QBO has tanked in recent months, and is now at -19.28 for August. If it continues to decline for SON, and averages -20 or below, there is a greater likelihood of a warmer than normal, and a less snowy than normal winter for NYC.

Nice post. It's sort of interesting how all 8 cases prior to 2000 had below normal snowfall, while 3 out of 4 cases since 2000 have had ABOVE average snowfall in NYC.

[Snow_Miser]

Nice post. It's sort of interesting how all 8 cases prior to 2000 had below normal snowfall, while 3 out of 4 cases since 2000 have had ABOVE average snowfall in NYC.

Thanks. 2005-2006 we got lucky because of the Blizzard of 2006. That winter was very mild as a whole. Same with "Nemo" in February 2013. The only winter that had both above average snowfall and below average temperatures was 2003-2004.

[Snow_Miser]

QBO dropped to -21.64 for September.

[SnowGoose69]

Thanks. 2005-2006 we got lucky because of the Blizzard of 2006. That winter was very mild as a whole. Same with "Nemo" in February 2013. The only winter that had both above average snowfall and below average temperatures was 2003-2004.

 

We had quite a bit of luck in 03-04 as well, most of it occurring in December, those 2 storms truly were perfectly timed and the month as a whole was not that cold, also that February was virtually snowless, we really had only about 2 good weeks of cold and snow combined that winter in mid to late January....December 03 and December 48 were very similar in that they were not cold at all but found a way to be snowy.

[Snow_Miser]

We had quite a bit of luck in 03-04 as well, most of it occurring in December, those 2 storms truly were perfectly timed and the month as a whole was not that cold, also that February was virtually snowless, we really had only about 2 good weeks of cold and snow combined that winter in mid to late January....December 03 and December 48 were very similar in that they were not cold at all but found a way to be snowy.

 

It was slightly colder than normal.. though not as cold as last year.

 

[Absolute Humidity]

Nice post. It's sort of interesting how all 8 cases prior to 2000 had below normal snowfall, while 3 out of 4 cases since 2000 have had ABOVE average snowfall in NYC.

Interesting to note the overall + snowfalls during -20+ QBO's in the current century. This looks well timed with the PDO flip as an explanation for these cases regardless wether they were cold or not. It also appears many of the -QBO torchyness snowless winters had a -20 + head of steam going into the fall. We'll see what happens with Sept numbers if they continue - or back off a bit. Might have to scale back the snowy forcast:

[Absolute Humidity]

It's also interesting to note that that the 50 mb autumn numbers just eyeballing tend to hover around -10 for these years but so far 2014, August was barely - at -0.15 where as for 2007, August was at -11.57 and 2012 August was -9.76 respectively. Without any degree of certainty, this could mean that the current August 2014 30mb QBO of -21.64 could drop off some come Sept. Where it goes there after is anyone's guess but with a strong - 30mb QBO, well need a strong -AO -NAO couplet to offset the pacific if we hope for big snows.

[SnowGoose69]

It's also interesting to note that that the 50 mb autumn numbers just eyeballing tend to hover around -10 for these years but so far 2014, August was barely - at -0.15 where as for 2007, August was at -11.57 and 2012 August was -9.76 respectively. Without any degree of certainty, this could mean that the current August 2014 30mb QBO of -21.64 could drop off some come Sept. Where it goes there after is anyone's guess but with a strong - 30mb QBO, well need a strong -AO -NAO couplet to offset the pacific if we hope for big snows.

 

The Pacific is going to have a very hard time overwhelming the pattern, even without a -NAO based on the current SSTs near the GOA...the ridge is going to keep trying to form there all winter, if we have the strongly -QBO its possible we may see some periods where it breaks down much like the GOA low did at times in 98-99, 01-02, and 11-12 but probably won't be for any sustained time...I'm interested to know if any of those strong -QBO winters had strongly warm SST departures in the GOA...or if the somewhat snowier ones did not.

[Absolute Humidity]

The Pacific is going to have a very hard time overwhelming the pattern, even without a -NAO based on the current SSTs near the GOA...the ridge is going to keep trying to form there all winter, if we have the strongly -QBO its possible we may see some periods where it breaks down much like the GOA low did at times in 98-99, 01-02, and 11-12 but probably won't be for any sustained time...I'm interested to know if any of those strong -QBO winters had strongly warm SST departures in the GOA...or if the somewhat snowier ones did not.

Quickie search shows few anomalies for GOA 2004

[GaWx]

Note that none of these 12 falls/winters was during a weak to moderate Nino, which is where I'm confident we're heading for fall/winter. Also, the six warmest were all during -ENSO in DJF fwiw. So, does this mean that these stats for very negative fall QBO's suggesting warmth have less value for the upcoming winter in NYC than normal? Opinions?

[millwx]

 

Note that none of these 12 falls/winters was during a weak to moderate Nino, which is where I'm confident we're heading for fall/winter. Also, the six warmest were all during -ENSO in DJF fwiw. So, does this mean that these stats for very negative fall QBO's suggesting warmth have less value for the upcoming winter in NYC than normal? Opinions?

 

 

I'm not going to criticize the research done by Snowlover; in fact, the data is fairly compelling (though so are your concerns).  Moreover, my analyses on the data are not quite attacking the data from the same angle... I'm not NYC-centric (though I live in the NYC Metro area and NYC is the largest component in my calculations... but, because I do seasonal - and shorter-range - forecasts for my job, it is focused nationally... though it is done on a weighted basis... so, the East dominates, and NYC rules the roost in the East... soooooo... NYC still carries good weight for me; nonetheless, my analyses do not ONLY reflect NYC).  So, I'm not going to disagree with either Snowlover's analysis or your response.  All I will tell you is this... I've done repeated analyses on every climo/teleconnection/etc parameter I can get my hand on and, after such analysis, I can tell you that the QBO gets a grand total of absolutely zero weight in my seasonal forecasts.  Take that for whatever it's worth.

[Snow_Miser]

 

Note that none of these 12 falls/winters was during a weak to moderate Nino, which is where I'm confident we're heading for fall/winter. Also, the six warmest were all during -ENSO in DJF fwiw. So, does this mean that these stats for very negative fall QBO's suggesting warmth have less value for the upcoming winter in NYC than normal? Opinions?

 

 

DJF ONI values for all of the years I highlighted above.

 

1965-1966: +1.4 (moderate +ENSO)

1970-1971: -1.2 (moderate -ENSO)

1972-1973: +1.8 (strong +ENSO)

1974-1975: -0.5 (weak -ENSO)

1979-1980 +0.5 (neutral-positive)

1984-1985 -1.0 (moderate -ENSO)

1989-1990 +0.1 (neutral-positive)

1996-1997 -0.5 (neutral negative)

2003-2004 +0.3 (neutral-positive) 

2005-2006 -0.9 (weak -ENSO)

2007-2008 -1.5 (moderate -ENSO)

2012-2013: -0.6 (neutral-negative)

 

From:

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

 

The best analog years for the upcoming ENSO state and a strongly -QBO SON are 2003-2004 and 1979-1980. 1979-1980 remained fairly negative and didn't start returning towards neutral values until around December-January. 2003-2004 started heading towards neutral next month in the QBO. It will be interesting to see which years the QBO follows since those two winters are drastically different for the NYC area. If we continue dropping, then a 1979-1980 analog should be favored over a 2003-2004 analog and vice versa. Should be interesting to see how this all turns out.

[uncle W]

on December 2nd 1979 the ao index was above +5 and the nao +1.708...not a good way to start a winter...after the earliest snowfall on record on 10/10/79 it hit 88 on the 19th and stayed mild until late January...whether or not this fall is mild is still to be determined...2003 had a mild November also...

[Absolute Humidity]

I'm not going to criticize the research done by Snowlover; in fact, the data is fairly compelling (though so are your concerns). Moreover, my analyses on the data are not quite attacking the data from the same angle... I'm not NYC-centric (though I live in the NYC Metro area and NYC is the largest component in my calculations... but, because I do seasonal - and shorter-range - forecasts for my job, it is focused nationally... though it is done on a weighted basis... so, the East dominates, and NYC rules the roost in the East... soooooo... NYC still carries good weight for me; nonetheless, my analyses do not ONLY reflect NYC). So, I'm not going to disagree with either Snowlover's analysis or your response. All I will tell you is this... I've done repeated analyses on every climo/teleconnection/etc parameter I can get my hand on and, after such analysis, I can tell you that the QBO gets a grand total of absolutely zero weight in my seasonal forecasts. Take that for whatever it's worth.

Initially the data set does look compelling but there just seemed to be something more random going on; as if these years, prior to 2004 were simply dealt crappy hands then there after, a few straights and flushes; decent hands, enough to win the round but nothing spectacular was dealt. Then I realized a typical winter in NYC is nothing spectacular and the crappy hands, those less than average winters far out weigh the full houses and four of a kind winters thus these hands being fairly rare spread out over time have not yet been dealt during a -20 + QBO season. Will it happen? Yes, probably this season but I don't want to get too far ahead of myself. The October Siberian express has yet to even begin.

[Drz1111]

This thread is a lesson as to why every scientist should learn how to check his or her data to rule out random chance.  

[Snow_Miser]

Initially the data set does look compelling but there just seemed to be something more random going on; as if these years, prior to 2004 were simply dealt crappy hands then there after, a few straights and flushes; decent hands, enough to win the round but nothing spectacular was dealt. Then I realized a typical winter in NYC is nothing spectacular and the crappy hands, those less than average winters far out weigh the full houses and four of a kind winters thus these hands being fairly rare spread out over time have not yet been dealt during a -20 + QBO season. Will it happen? Yes, probably this season but I don't want to get too far ahead of myself. The October Siberian express has yet to even begin.

 

Out of the twelve years above, only one year was both colder and snowier than average. There are other factors at work, like you have highlighted above, but a strongly -QBO according to the above analysis does not seem to be inconsequential. Should be interesting to see which factor wins out over the other. Whether the strongly -QBO or the +NPAC SSTs win out this year.

[Yanksfan]

Out of the twelve years above, only one year was both colder and snowier than average. There are other factors at work, like you have highlighted above, but a strongly -QBO according to the above analysis does not seem to be inconsequential. Should be interesting to see which factor wins out over the other. Whether the strongly -QBO or the +NPAC SSTs win out this year.

In my opinion, I would think a +NPAC/ -EPO combo would trump the -QBO anyway. I wouldn't worry to much.

[Isotherm]

The NAO values for those winters following strongly -QBO autumns tended to be more positive than negative. The question is...does a strongly negative autumnal QBO aid in inducing a wintertime predominately +NAO, or is it a case of correlation without causation (namely, coincidence)?

 

Another factor to consider is the fact that the QBO / upper tropospheric wind pattern does not always couple w/ the NAO-AO down toward the middle troposphere. We've seen strongly negative NAO winters in a +QBO regime and positive NAO winters in a -QBO regime as well. However, there is a tendency present in the data: a distinct correlation b/t -QBO / blocky winters and +QBO / vortex winters.

 

I do agree that there is some value to the trend of the QBO (increasingly more negative/positive and vice versa) beyond the mere magnitude/sign of the index. The difficulty though is determining whether it will have a significant impact in the tropospheric 500mb pattern or not, because as stated, there is sometimes a disconnect. Most recently, see the 2010-11 winter - a season in which the +QBO would have dictated a fast flow yet we had one of the most negative NAO periods in the past 20 years.

 

The bottom line is there's a lot to look at and the QBO is one piece of the puzzle. I wouldn't get overly excited or concerned based solely on the one index (speaking generally, not toward anyone in particular).

[Wannabehippie]

For what its worth NOAA is predicting that the east and west coasts of the US will experience above to well above normal temps Oct - December.  

 

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=1

[Snow_Miser]

Averaging the winters following a strongly -QBO during the autumn gives this picture. Pretty clear signal as to what it generally favors.

[millwx]

Averaging the winters following a strongly -QBO during the autumn gives this picture. Pretty clear signal as to what it generally favors.

 

An issue I always have with these plots (not trying to be critical... everyone does it... including me) is this... You have selected the default climatology period.  If you believe in either climate change (AGW or natural) or any long-term cycles (PDO, AMO, etc), then there is likely to be a trend or a cyclical nature to the temperatures.  As a result, in order to capture the actual signal of the parameter you are trying to analyze, you MUST utilize a base climatology period identical to the years you are analyzing.

 

I am assuming you have analyzed all data from 1950 to present, given the years you've plotted.  Unfortunately, the climate division site does not have a 1950-2013 (or 2014) climo option.  It does, however, have a 1951-2010 option.  If you use that climo range and then exclude 2012-13, since it's outside of that range you get the following map (using the same contouring intervals as in yours):

 

 

The signal definitely still exists.  So, I'm certainly NOT trying to undermine what you're presenting here.  That said, it is a much weaker signal... basically slashed in half (your map had data nearing the +2F threshold; this one peaks at about a +1F anomaly).  For an entire seasonal mean, +1F isn't insignificant.  But it is MUCH less impressive than a +2F anomaly, and may be an influence that's very easy to overcome ***IF*** the season in question features significant offsetting factors.  So, your analysis remains valid, but I believe the influence is considerably weaker than you suggest.

 

EDIT:  Just to drive this point home...  half of the seasons you're using are outside of the climatology base you are using.  So, a large part of what you are showing is just the trend/cycle of the temperatures over the past 18 year.  In fact, just to show this... here are ALL of the last 18 winters (all of 'em... no screening on PDO, QBO, ENSO, etc, etc) versus the 1950-1995 base climo you were using:

 

 

...THAT accounts for a solid chunk of what you're showing, with the QBO being incidental.  Again, I'm NOT completely disregarding your analysis.  As the original image I posted shows, even when you use the "correct" climo, a signal remains.  All I'm saying is the QBO signal that you're showing is far weaker than your map implies.

[uncle W]

An issue I always have with these plots (not trying to be critical... everyone does it... including me) is this... You have selected the default climatology period.  If you believe in either climate change (AGW or natural) or any long-term cycles (PDO, AMO, etc), then there is likely to be a trend or a cyclical nature to the temperatures.  As a result, in order to capture the actual signal of the parameter you are trying to analyze, you MUST utilize a base climatology period identical to the years you are analyzing.

 

I am assuming you have analyzed all data from 1950 to present, given the years you've plotted.  Unfortunately, the climate division site does not have a 1950-2013 (or 2014) climo option.  It does, however, have a 1951-2010 option.  If you use that climo range and then exclude 2012-13, since it's outside of that range you get the following map (using the same contouring intervals as in yours):

 

 

The signal definitely still exists.  So, I'm certainly NOT trying to undermine what you're presenting here.  That said, it is a much weaker signal... basically slashed in half (your map had data nearing the +2F threshold; this one peaks at about a +1F anomaly).  For an entire seasonal mean, +1F isn't insignificant.  But it is MUCH less impressive than a +2F anomaly, and may be an influence that's very easy to overcome ***IF*** the season in question features significant offsetting factors.  So, your analysis remains valid, but I believe the influence is considerably weaker than you suggest.

 

EDIT:  Just to drive this point home...  half of the seasons you're using are outside of the climatology base you are using.  So, a large part of what you are showing is just the trend/cycle of the temperatures over the past 18 year.  In fact, just to show this... here are ALL of the last 18 winters (all of 'em... no screening on PDO, QBO, ENSO, etc, etc) versus the 1950-1995 base climo you were using:

 

 

...THAT accounts for a solid chunk of what you're showing, with the QBO being incidental.  Again, I'm NOT completely disregarding your analysis.  As the original image I posted shows, even when you use the "correct" climo, a signal remains.  All I'm saying is the QBO signal that you're showing is far weaker than your map implies.

these maps are good for where the core of the heat or cold was...precipitation maps are good for showing where the storm track usually is...this map is for the least snowiest winters in KNYC...It shows above average precipitation in the mid west and great lakes...This to me means the storm tracks were usually inside runners...

[blizzardof96]

The NAO values for those winters following strongly -QBO autumns tended to be more positive than negative. The question is...does a strongly negative autumnal QBO aid in inducing a wintertime predominately +NAO, or is it a case of correlation without causation (namely, coincidence)?

 

Another factor to consider is the fact that the QBO / upper tropospheric wind pattern does not always couple w/ the NAO-AO down toward the middle troposphere. We've seen strongly negative NAO winters in a +QBO regime and positive NAO winters in a -QBO regime as well. However, there is a tendency present in the data: a distinct correlation b/t -QBO / blocky winters and +QBO / vortex winters.

 

I do agree that there is some value to the trend of the QBO (increasingly more negative/positive and vice versa) beyond the mere magnitude/sign of the index. The difficulty though is determining whether it will have a significant impact in the tropospheric 500mb pattern or not, because as stated, there is sometimes a disconnect. Most recently, see the 2010-11 winter - a season in which the +QBO would have dictated a fast flow yet we had one of the most negative NAO periods in the past 20 years.

 

The bottom line is there's a lot to look at and the QBO is one piece of the puzzle. I wouldn't get overly excited or concerned based solely on the one index (speaking generally, not toward anyone in particular).

Agree completely with everything you mention above. You also have to consider the HT effect(commingling of solar/QBO where +QBO/Smin are less favourable then +QBO/Smax years in terms of driving a -NAM and -QBO/Smin are more favourable then -QBO/Smax years). This causes significant variability between neg/pos QBO years. Taking this into account, I suspect the QBO has a better correlation with the NAM state and the frequency of SSW's in winter as opposed to the NAO as it has a more direct relationship(for e.g you may get a "QBO aided" SSW without having a large impact on the NAO. ENSO can also act to heighten the HT effect especially in -QBO/Smax/+ONI years, so this can alter -QBO/-NAO correlations further. 

[Kaner587]

September number 23.24. Only down 1.6 from August as it seems the rate of descent has slowed.

[Snow_Miser]

Yeah, 1979-1980 and 2003-2004 look to be the best analogs right now when combining the state of the QBO right now with ENSO.

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

Yeah, 1979-1980 and 2003-2004 look to be the best analogs right now when combining the state of the QBO right now with ENSO.

1979 - 1980 would be crap for south of I-80.

[Absolute Humidity]

1979 - 1980 would be crap for south of I-80.

Yes I believe my highest total that season fell on Oct 10th!

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

Yes I believe my highest total that season fell on Oct 10th!

Yikes. So most October snowfall amounts for south of I-80 does kill off the rest of the winter.

[Absolute Humidity]

A strongly -QBO (-20 or below) in the autumn has been mentioned by others on another board as a potential cause for a snowless winter in NYC. The reasoning goes that a very -QBO in the autumn promotes warmth in the stratosphere at the poles, leading to very cold conditions at the surface. This in turn strengthens the Pacific Jet, which in turn floods most of the eastern United States with warmer than normal, and less snowy conditions by locking the cold at the polar region. ESRL has QBO data going back to 1948, while OKX has snowfall and temperature records for NYC going back to 1868-1869. [/size]

 

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data

 [/size]

Average snowfall for NYC from 1981-2010 is 25.8 inches. [/size]

 

 [/size]SON periods with a QBO of -20 or below:[/size]

 

1965: -19.96[/size]

1970: -22.09[/size]

1972: -20.69[/size]

1974: -23.04[/size]

1979: -22.74[/size]

1984: -20.07[/size]

1989: -19.71[/size]

1996: -22.50[/size]

2003: -20.24[/size]

2005: -28.70[/size]

2007: -28.26[/size]

2012: -23.35[/size]

 

The resulting winter temperatures. NYC has an average of 35.2 F in the winter.

 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/monthannualtemp.html

 

1965-1966: 35.9 F (+0.7)

1970-1971: 32.2 F (-3.0)

1972-1973: 35.5 F (+0.3)

1974-1975: 37.5 F (+2.0)

1979-1980: 35.4 F (+0.2)

1984-1985: 36.4 F (+1.2)

1989-1990: 35.6 F (+0.4)

1996-1997: 37.8 F (+2.6)

2003-2004: 32.4 F (-2.8)

2005-2006: 37.3 F (+2.1)

2007-2008: 36.4 F (+1.2)

2012-2013: 36.8 F (+1.6)

 

The average out of all of the anomalies is +0.5-+0.6, slightly warmer than average. 

 

NYC has an average snowfall of 25.8 inches. 

 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/monthseasonsnowfall.html

 

1965-1966: 21.4" (-4.4)

1970-1971: 15.5" (-10.3)

1972-1973: 2.8" (-23.0)

1974-1975: 13.1" (-12.7)

1979-1980: 12.8" (-13.0)

1984-1985: 24.1" (-1.7)

1989-1990: 13.4" (-12.4)

1996-1997: 10.0" (-15.8)

2003-2004: 42.6" (+16.8)

2005-2006: 40.0" (+14.2)

2007-2008: 11.9" (-13.9)

2012-2013: 26.1" (+0.3)

 

On average, there tends to be 6-7 less inches of snow than a typical year in NYC when the QBO is strongly negative in the autumn.  

 

This is relevant for the upcoming winter, since the QBO has tanked in recent months, and is now at -19.28 for August. If it continues to decline for SON, and averages -20 or below, there is a greater likelihood of a warmer than normal, and a less snowy than normal winter for NYC.

19.5" snowfall average those years.